Worth of a Machado Rental?

[tntoriole]

12 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Are you talking about the return for Manny or just the fact that he's gone?

The return in any trade for Manny.   I think the expectations are way high.  

[wildbillhiccup]

33 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I will go on record right now, having read through the suggested trades on this thread, that there are going to be a lot of disappointed posters on this board when and if this actually occurs. 

...because he won't be traded. 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

...because he won't be traded. 

That is still where I am.  Angelos won't trade him if the return isn't ridiculous.

[Beef Supreme]

22 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Nonsense.  We would have gotten a “haul” two offseasons ago and perhaps at the last deadline    But now every team knows we have absolutely zero leverage at all in any deal.  Take it or leave it will be the response of most GMs at this point. 

It's more about how much teams think Machado can be the difference maker for a world series run. Teams who want him won't be concerned about the Orioles' leverage on signing Machado. And if they want him, they won't be irrational and say "take it or leave it" to their initial trade proposal based on thinking that the Orioles have no leverage. Teams that want Machado will undertake extensive negotiations to try to acquire him.

[tntoriole]

17 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

It's more about how much teams think Machado can be the difference maker for a world series run. Teams who want him won't be concerned about the Orioles' leverage on signing Machado. And if they want him, they won't be irrational and say "take it or leave it" to their initial trade proposal based on thinking that the Orioles have no leverage. Teams that want Machado will undertake extensive negotiations to try to acquire him.

A closer, yes.  A starting pitcher like a Verlander, yes.  But a new position player on a team that is already close to the playoffs?  Much harder to predict exactly how well that works, unless there is an injury to an existing player.   But for just an upgrade to an already winning lineup?  Has to be weighed against the inherent disruption introduced into an already winning team.  Adding Machado, say to the Yankees, and moving Gregorius or benching a starting player for Machado to play is a much harder scenario in which to accurately predict the value of a Machado for 2-3 months than adding an Andrew Miller to the bullpen or an Aroldis Chapman or a Verlander.      If I am the GM, I would be very, very reticent to give away too much in that scenario.    We shall see how it plays out.  

[Beef Supreme]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

A closer, yes.  A starting pitcher like a Verlander, yes.  But a new position player on a team that is already close to the playoffs?  Much harder to predict exactly how well that works, unless there is an injury to an existing player.   But for just an upgrade to an already winning lineup?  Has to be weighed against the inherent disruption introduced into an already winning team.  Adding Machado, say to the Yankees, and moving Gregorius or benching a starting player for Machado to play is a much harder scenario in which to accurately predict the value of a Machado for 2-3 months than adding an Andrew Miller to the bullpen or an Aroldis Chapman or a Verlander.      If I am the GM, I would be very, very reticent to give away too much in that scenario.    We shall see how it plays out.  

I agree with this.

I only disagree that Machado's trade value is diminished because teams think (or care) about the lack of leverage the Orioles have in extending Manny.

[tntoriole]

3 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

I agree with this.

I only disagree that Machado's trade value is diminished because teams think (or care) about the lack of leverage the Orioles have in extending Manny.

It is not primarily leverage.  It is simply the amount of time remaining that either the Orioles or the acquiring team has the control over Manny that counts.   And that time will be soon down to about nothing.  Thus the Orioles now have little room to be making return demands after just blowing off the offseason two years ago, the deadline last year, and the offseason this year.  Because if they keep him, then they get another two months on a last place team.  But last winter, the Orioles keeping him would have been said to "make a run" for 2018, etc. etc.   So the Orioles then could have said credibly to another team...well, we will just keep him, thank you.   But now, that answer no longer is viable and every GM carefully assessing how much to return to us for Manny knows it.   If I was another GM, I would start with a very small amount of estimated value over what the comp pick would be...and not go very much further. 

But there certainly are dumb GMs out there, no doubt.  Which could favor us if the old man lets it go in that direction. 

[theocean]

One thing I've been saying is that in order to get a Top Prospect - the teams with the top prospects have to be willing to trade them. Unfortunately, I think that the market is rough for the O's right now - as a lot of top prospects are on rebuilding teams, or teams that finishing up a rebuild and have a big window ahead of them to compete. Here's a list of the top prospects:

1. Shohei Ohtani, Angels - Not going anywhere

2. Ronald Acuna, Braves - Rebuilding

3. Vladamir Guerrero Jr, Jays - Possible

4. Eloy Jimenez, White Sox - Rebuilding

5. Gleyber Torres, Yankees - Possible

6. Victor Robles, Nationals - Possible

7. Nick Senzel, Reds - Rebuilding

8. Fernando Tatis Jr, Padres - Rebuilding

9. Forrest Whitley, Astros - Suspension, Astros probably only trade if injury to Correa/Bregman

10. Michael Kopech, White Sox - Rebuilding

11. Francisco Mejia, Indians - Possible

12. Walker Buehler, Dodgers - Possible

13. Bo Bichette, Blue Jays - Possible

14. Brendan Rodgers, Rockies - Possible

15. Mitch Keller, Pirates - Rebuild

16. Kyle Tucker, Astros - Astros probably only trade if injury to Correa/Bregman

17. Alex Reyes, Cardinals - Possible

18. Brent Honeywell, Rays - Rebuilding

19. Mackenzie Gore, Padres - Rebuilding

20. Royce Lewis, Twins - Possible

21. Hunter Greene, Reds - Rebuilding

22. Willy Adames, Rays - Rebuilding

23. Austin Hays, O's - Already an Oriole!

24. Trison McKenzie, Reds - Rebuilding

25. Brendan McKay, Rays - Rebuilding

26. Sixto Sanchez, Phillies - Rebuilding

27. Lewis Brinson, Marlins - Rebuilding

28. Luis Robert, White Sox - Rebuilding

29. Juan Soto, Nationals - Possible

30. Kyle Wright, Braves - Rebuilding

31. Mike Soroka, Braves - Rebuilding

32. AJ Puk, Athletics - Rebuilding

33. Alex Verdugo, Dodgers - Possible

34. Leody Tavernas, Rangers - Rebuilding

35. Scott Kingery, Phillies - Rebuilding

36. Luis Urias, Padres - Rebuilding

37. JP Crawford, Phillies - Rebuilding

38. Jack Flaherty, Cardinals - Possible

39. Franklin Perez, Dodgers - Rebuilding

40. Cal Quantrill, Padres - Rebuilding

41. Ryan McMahon, Rockies - Possible

42. Michel Baez, Padres - Rebuilding

43. Taylor Trammell, Reds - Rebuilding

44. Esteban Florial, Yankees - Possible

45. Austin Meadows, Pirates - Rebuilding

46. Carson Kelly, Cardinals - Possible

47. Anthony Alford, Jays - Possible

48. Justus Sheffield, Yankees - Possible

49. Luiz Gohara, Braves - Rebuilding

50. Adrian Morejon, Padres - Rebuilding

In summary - in order to get a Top 50 Prospect - it basically comes down to this:

- Yankees: Torres, Florial, Sheffield

- Jays: Guerrero, Bichette, Alford

- Nationals: Robles, Soto

- Dodgers: Buehler, Verdugo

- Indians: Mejia

- Cardinals: Reyes, Flaherty, Kelly

- Rockies: Rodgers, McMahon

- Twins: Lewis

 

[DirtyBird]

Nobody is giving up a top 50 prospect to rent Manny

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Nobody is giving up a top 50 prospect to rent Manny

I could see it happening, if things went the right way.

But I don't think one top 50 guy would be enough for ownership.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

Nobody is giving up a top 50 prospect to rent Manny

Oh, I think they might.    But I’d rather spend my time watching Manny play then speculating about who we might get for him.   If they make a deal, we’ll know.   He’s certainly done a lot to enhance his trade value the last couple weeks.   Anyone who was worried that last year’s disappointing offensive performance would spill into 2018 can stop worrying.   

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, theocean said:

One thing I've been saying is that in order to get a Top Prospect - the teams with the top prospects have to be willing to trade them. Unfortunately, I think that the market is rough for the O's right now - as a lot of top prospects are on rebuilding teams, or teams that finishing up a rebuild and have a big window ahead of them to compete. Here's a list of the top prospects:

In summary - in order to get a Top 50 Prospect - it basically comes down to this:

- Yankees: Torres, Florial, Sheffield

- Jays: Guerrero, Bichette, Alford

- Nationals: Robles, Soto

- Dodgers: Buehler, Verdugo

- Indians: Mejia

- Cardinals: Reyes, Flaherty, Kelly

- Rockies: Rodgers, McMahon

- Twins: Lewis

 

I'm not at all discounting the work you put in here but I don't think some of these guys are conceivable returns.  Guerrero for instance isn't going anywhere.

[theocean]

5 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

It is not primarily leverage.  It is simply the amount of time remaining that either the Orioles or the acquiring team has the control over Manny that counts.   And that time will be soon down to about nothing.  Thus the Orioles now have little room to be making return demands after just blowing off the offseason two years ago, the deadline last year, and the offseason this year.  Because if they keep him, then they get another two months on a last place team.  But last winter, the Orioles keeping him would have been said to "make a run" for 2018, etc. etc.   So the Orioles then could have said credibly to another team...well, we will just keep him, thank you.   But now, that answer no longer is viable and every GM carefully assessing how much to return to us for Manny knows it.   If I was another GM, I would start with a very small amount of estimated value over what the comp pick would be...and not go very much further. 

But there certainly are dumb GMs out there, no doubt.  Which could favor us if the old man lets it go in that direction. 

Other teams aren't going to be bidding against whether the Orioles are going to resign Manny or not. They're going to be bidding against other teams who want to add Manny to their team. 

If Manny is hitting like he is now at the deadline - there will be teams falling over themselves to outbid the others for their services. The trade deadline creates urgency, which helps the O's. Whether the O's are going to resign Manny or not is irrelevant. 

[theocean]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not at all discounting the work you put in here but I don't think some of these guys are conceivable returns.  Guerrero for instance isn't going anywhere.

I don't think they are conceivable returns either, personally. I was just listing who the top prospects are on competing teams that might be interested in Manny.

Just wanted to provide the info so others could debate.

[HokieOs]

On 4/22/2018 at 4:29 PM, ScGO's said:

Ultimately I see him going for a top 100 guy and 2 B/C level prospects.

This is pretty close to what I'm thinking. One A-/B+ prospect. One B/B- prospect. And then a C+/C type prospect.

We're not going to get the world for a half year of Machado. But we can get a solid haul nonetheless. And that'll be a lot better than what we'll get for Machado at the end of the season.