Worth of a Machado Rental?

[Hank Scorpio]

Man this is a painful thread to read.

[tntoriole]

2 hours ago, theocean said:

Other teams aren't going to be bidding against whether the Orioles are going to resign Manny or not. They're going to be bidding against other teams who want to add Manny to their team. 

If Manny is hitting like he is now at the deadline - there will be teams falling over themselves to outbid the others for their services. The trade deadline creates urgency, which helps the O's. Whether the O's are going to resign Manny or not is irrelevant. 

In a negotiation, any self respecting GM is not going to be "falling over themselves" in their approach to negotiating.  They will seek to get Manny for the least possible amount of return.   The least possible.   Not what we fans want.   The least possible.      No matter how positive a spin people want to put on the situation now and how there is going to be this big "bidding" war at a trade deadline, etc. ....what I see is how we have waited for arguably three years doing absolutely nothing to try to obtain any return for Manny Machado or to sign him ourselves....and now people seem to be still kidding themselves, oh boy, we are going to get multiple top flight prospects, major league players, etc. in return for a limited rental.     Andrew Miller required EdRod in return...but, in part, that was only because Detroit was strongly competing for his services and was very likely going to be the team we faced in the playoffs.    The likelihood of that exact type of sequence of bidding playing out is slim, in my view,  and even if it did, it still turned out that the return was an almost ready minor league pitcher.   

 

I just think we are in fact going to see what many people here will view as an incredibly weak return at this point.   The Machado situation has been catastrophically bungled by Orioles management in my view, whomever is in charge.  

[DNM13]

An elite 3rd baseman/shortstop hitting 35+ home runs...I'm sure a few teams with World Series aspirations would give up some prospects for that. His 50 RBI's might not look that impressive by comparison because he has nobody to drive in, but hopefully that gets overlooked. 

[Rich Mac]

On 4/22/2018 at 6:30 PM, tntoriole said:

Nonsense.  We would have gotten a “haul” two offseasons ago and perhaps at the last deadline    But now every team knows we have absolutely zero leverage at all in any deal.  Take it or leave it will be the response of most GMs at this point. 

I respectfully disagree with this thought.

The Orioles have all the leverage in the world. They have a player that can put a playoff contender over the top. The closer we get to the deadline, the more desperate teams will be to land Manny. Rumors will be running rampant and, hopefully, we will get a bidding war. You will have several teams that will see Manny as their final WS piece and I am hedging that someone pays a good prospect price to haul in that ring.

[tntoriole]

58 minutes ago, Rich Mac said:

I respectfully disagree with this thought.

The Orioles have all the leverage in the world. They have a player that can put a playoff contender over the top. The closer we get to the deadline, the more desperate teams will be to land Manny. Rumors will be running rampant and, hopefully, we will get a bidding war. You will have several teams that will see Manny as their final WS piece and I am hedging that someone pays a good prospect price to haul in that ring.

We shall see...bidding war is a fantasy, imho.  Teams that need a shortstop that badly are unlikely to be playoff contenders in the first place.  Unless there is a fluke injury.   I think this is a “have our cake and eat it too” pipedream.  If we wanted a haul, then he should have been traded long ago.  Now we want to have wrung all of his value out AND still get a haul?  It is nice to root for the home team but other teams don’t get to be playoff contenders by getting into bidding wars and turning over their top prospects over a 2 month rental shortstop. 

As a fan, I hope you are right.  But I think fans with these expectations are going to be shocked. 

[Beef Supreme]

I want one thing -- a shortstop who is good enough defensively to stick at the position and be an asset and who can hit enough to keep him in the lineup for at least four years.

[sportsfan8703]

5 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

I want one thing -- a shortstop who is good enough defensively to stick at the position and be an asset and who can hit enough to keep him in the lineup for at least four years.

Well good luck because SS is like the thinnest position depth wise in baseball. 

I think Machado could bring back a haul from the dodgers. They have the Turner injury. Something like Buehler and Verdugo. 

A player or Machado’s talent, age, contract status, hasn’t been traded at the deadline in a long time.  Not in the two wild card era, or just the wild card era.  Who are the comps?

Rickey Henderson to the Blue Jays years ago????  He was 34 though. 

Henderson re signed with the A’s in the offseason btw. 

[Rich Mac]

6 hours ago, tntoriole said:

We shall see...bidding war is a fantasy, imho.  Teams that need a shortstop that badly are unlikely to be playoff contenders in the first place.  Unless there is a fluke injury.   I think this is a “have our cake and eat it too” pipedream.  If we wanted a haul, then he should have been traded long ago.  Now we want to have wrung all of his value out AND still get a haul?  It is nice to root for the home team but other teams don’t get to be playoff contenders by getting into bidding wars and turning over their top prospects over a 2 month rental shortstop. 

As a fan, I hope you are right.  But I think fans with these expectations are going to be shocked. 

If we would have traded Manny two off-seasons ago then we would have gotten an absolute haul. I am under no illusions that we are getting that same haul now, but I do think we will score a major prospect plus some additional lesser talent.

[POR]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 

Something like Buehler and Verdugo. 

 

You live in a fantasy world.

[tntoriole]

32 minutes ago, Rich Mac said:

If we would have traded Manny two off-seasons ago then we would have gotten an absolute haul. I am under no illusions that we are getting that same haul now, but I do think we will score a major prospect plus some additional lesser talent.

If you define major as top  50-100. 

[wildbillhiccup]

14 hours ago, theocean said:

One thing I've been saying is that in order to get a Top Prospect - the teams with the top prospects have to be willing to trade them. Unfortunately, I think that the market is rough for the O's right now - as a lot of top prospects are on rebuilding teams, or teams that finishing up a rebuild and have a big window ahead of them to compete. Here's a list of the top prospects:

1. Shohei Ohtani, Angels - Not going anywhere

2. Ronald Acuna, Braves - Rebuilding

3. Vladamir Guerrero Jr, Jays - Possible

4. Eloy Jimenez, White Sox - Rebuilding

5. Gleyber Torres, Yankees - Possible

6. Victor Robles, Nationals - Possible

7. Nick Senzel, Reds - Rebuilding

8. Fernando Tatis Jr, Padres - Rebuilding

9. Forrest Whitley, Astros - Suspension, Astros probably only trade if injury to Correa/Bregman

10. Michael Kopech, White Sox - Rebuilding

11. Francisco Mejia, Indians - Possible

12. Walker Buehler, Dodgers - Possible

13. Bo Bichette, Blue Jays - Possible

14. Brendan Rodgers, Rockies - Possible

15. Mitch Keller, Pirates - Rebuild

16. Kyle Tucker, Astros - Astros probably only trade if injury to Correa/Bregman

17. Alex Reyes, Cardinals - Possible

18. Brent Honeywell, Rays - Rebuilding

19. Mackenzie Gore, Padres - Rebuilding

20. Royce Lewis, Twins - Possible

21. Hunter Greene, Reds - Rebuilding

22. Willy Adames, Rays - Rebuilding

23. Austin Hays, O's - Already an Oriole!

24. Trison McKenzie, Reds - Rebuilding

25. Brendan McKay, Rays - Rebuilding

26. Sixto Sanchez, Phillies - Rebuilding

27. Lewis Brinson, Marlins - Rebuilding

28. Luis Robert, White Sox - Rebuilding

29. Juan Soto, Nationals - Possible

30. Kyle Wright, Braves - Rebuilding

31. Mike Soroka, Braves - Rebuilding

32. AJ Puk, Athletics - Rebuilding

33. Alex Verdugo, Dodgers - Possible

34. Leody Tavernas, Rangers - Rebuilding

35. Scott Kingery, Phillies - Rebuilding

36. Luis Urias, Padres - Rebuilding

37. JP Crawford, Phillies - Rebuilding

38. Jack Flaherty, Cardinals - Possible

39. Franklin Perez, Dodgers - Rebuilding

40. Cal Quantrill, Padres - Rebuilding

41. Ryan McMahon, Rockies - Possible

42. Michel Baez, Padres - Rebuilding

43. Taylor Trammell, Reds - Rebuilding

44. Esteban Florial, Yankees - Possible

45. Austin Meadows, Pirates - Rebuilding

46. Carson Kelly, Cardinals - Possible

47. Anthony Alford, Jays - Possible

48. Justus Sheffield, Yankees - Possible

49. Luiz Gohara, Braves - Rebuilding

50. Adrian Morejon, Padres - Rebuilding

In summary - in order to get a Top 50 Prospect - it basically comes down to this:

- Yankees: Torres, Florial, Sheffield

- Jays: Guerrero, Bichette, Alford

- Nationals: Robles, Soto

- Dodgers: Buehler, Verdugo

- Indians: Mejia

- Cardinals: Reyes, Flaherty, Kelly

- Rockies: Rodgers, McMahon

- Twins: Lewis

 

You could have narrowed this list down quite a bit by eliminating teams that already have good players at 3b and SS. For example, the Dodgers. 

[foxfield]

15 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

...because he won't be traded. 

 

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

That is still where I am.  Angelos won't trade him if the return isn't ridiculous.

This is a nice thread and all but the above is true.  Consider, the return would have to be otherworldly in order to get all of the minions to buy in.  

Consider:

Ring....

DD:  This is Dan

Brian Cashman:  Hello Dan, how about Gleyber Torres for Manny Straight up?

DD:  Done, I just, uh, need to check with my boss, I mean my back channel stuff.  Hold on. Hey Brady, I got Glyber for Manny straight up.  

Brady:  Dan we need a pitcher. Good one, controlable. How about Luis Severino?

DD: Umm, Brian, we think we need Luis Severino.

Cashman:  Ok fine

DD:  I mean Severino AND Gleyber

Cashman:  Dan, come on, it's not even a whole season, we don't even get the pick.

DD:  Brian that's what I can do.

Cashman:  Done

DD:  Hold on Buck, just walked in.  Buck I got Gleyber Torres AND Luis Severino for Manny.

Buck:  Dammit DD, I have needs now and you are taking away the only bat I have that's any good.  You have to get one known quantity back, like Jacoby Ellsbury.

DD;  Buck, you know he's on DL right?

Buck:  Well, how about Bret Gardner?

DD:  Brian, I am sorry to make this so difficult, but Buck really needs to have either Elsbury or Gardner.  With Gleyber and Luis.

Cashman:  I really don't know why anyone talks with you Dan.  But sure, we want Manny so F you but sure.

Dan:  That is fantastic, and by the way, you know I am looking if you have any openings at the end of the year right?  Anyway, let me tell the old man and we can close this up.

Dan:  Hello, Mr. Angelos?  Listen we have a fantastic offer from the Yankees.  Gleyber Torres, Luis Severino and Bret Gardner for Manny.

PA:  Dan, I honestly don't know why I don't fire you.  You give away our best player for 2 nobodies I never heard and Bret Gardner?  I love Gardner and have admired him for years, but hell even Brady knows he is past his prime?  Your giving away my marquis name.  I cant let Manny go for that little.  Those piss ants at the OH would ring my office for weeks.  No Dan, if you cant get that Judge guy with that package, theres no deal.

DD:  But sir, Gleyber Torres is a top 10 prospect and Luis Severino is a better pitcher than most of our franchise...

PA:  But nothing...Add Judge or take the pick for Manny.  On second thought, I hate those Yankees so much, tell em to add Judge for Davis, then include Davis back in the deal so they pay his salary.  That'll show em.

Dan:  Um hello Brian?

Cashman:  Dialtone.........

 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, foxfield said:

 

This is a nice thread and all but the above is true.  Consider, the return would have to be otherworldly in order to get all of the minions to buy in.  

Consider:

Ring....

DD:  This is Dan

Brian Cashman:  Hello Dan, how about Gleyber Torres for Manny Straight up?

DD:  Done, I just, uh, need to check with my boss, I mean my back channel stuff.  Hold on. Hey Brady, I got Glyber for Manny straight up.  

Brady:  Dan we need a pitcher. Good one, controlable. How about Luis Severino?

DD: Umm, Brian, we think we need Luis Severino.

Cashman:  Ok fine

DD:  I mean Severino AND Gleyber

Cashman:  Dan, come on, it's not even a whole season, we don't even get the pick.

DD:  Brian that's what I can do.

Cashman:  Done

DD:  Hold on Buck, just walked in.  Buck I got Gleyber Torres AND Luis Severino for Manny.

Buck:  Dammit DD, I have needs now and you are taking away the only bat I have that's any good.  You have to get one known quantity back, like Jacoby Ellsbury.

DD;  Buck, you know he's on DL right?

Buck:  Well, how about Bret Gardner?

DD:  Brian, I am sorry to make this so difficult, but Buck really needs to have either Elsbury or Gardner.  With Gleyber and Luis.

Cashman:  I really don't know why anyone talks with you Dan.  But sure, we want Manny so F you but sure.

Dan:  That is fantastic, and by the way, you know I am looking if you have any openings at the end of the year right?  Anyway, let me tell the old man and we can close this up.

Dan:  Hello, Mr. Angelos?  Listen we have a fantastic offer from the Yankees.  Gleyber Torres, Luis Severino and Bret Gardner for Manny.

PA:  Dan, I honestly don't know why I don't fire you.  You give away our best player for 2 nobodies I never heard and Bret Gardner?  I love Gardner and have admired him for years, but hell even Brady knows he is past his prime?  Your giving away my marquis name.  I cant let Manny go for that little.  Those piss ants at the OH would ring my office for weeks.  No Dan, if you cant get that Judge guy with that package, theres no deal.

DD:  But sir, Gleyber Torres is a top 10 prospect and Luis Severino is a better pitcher than most of our franchise...

PA:  But nothing...Add Judge or take the pick for Manny.  On second thought, I hate those Yankees so much, tell em to add Judge for Davis, then include Davis back in the deal so they pay his salary.  That'll show em.

Dan:  Um hello Brian?

Cashman:  Dialtone.........

 

Good to see they've scaled back their expectations, because they were asking for two SPs this offseason  

[Beef Supreme]

Nobody wants Jacoby Ellsbury. Not the Orioles. Not Buck. Not the MFY. Nobody.

[Punchandjudy]

A prospect is just a prospect.  Manny certainly could net a nice return on paper depends on a team's need.  If you are the Blue Jays and come September Tulo is hurt you may be willing to part with Bo Bichette if you think you can make a serious push and their window of opportunity is closing.  Look what Chapman and Miller netted the Yankees, no reason to think that Manny continuing to have a strong season wouldn't be attractive to several teams come July.