My Personal Breakdown Of The Roster Now That Possibility Of Contention Has Vanished

[Camden_yardbird]

25 minutes ago, atomic said:

why would anyone trade for Brach.  Machado and Schoop are the guys we should trade.   

Because last year: Joaquin Benoit, Tony Cingrani, Brandon Kintzler, Sean Doolittle, Tony Watson, David Hernandez, Joe Smith, Jeremy Jeffress, Addison Reed, Justin Wilson, AJ Ramos, Steve Chishek, Dan Jennings, Pat Neshek, Anthony Swarzak, Brandon Maurer, and David Phelps were all traded at the deadline last year.  Brach is better than more than a few of those pitchers.

[FanSince88]

9 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

The team would have to play .600 ball (84 wins in 139 games) to win 90 games. It's not happening. Dan Duquette did reign over a good Orioles team from 2012-2016 (can't give him all the credit in those early years because many pieces were already here). As a fan who was born in 1998 (the year the losing streak started), I am grateful for him doing his part in changing a losing culture. Unfortunately, he has made too many mistakes and the product of those mistakes is on the field right now. In this business, if you make too many mistakes, you lose your job. The 2012-2016 window has closed, and I'm operating under the assumption that a new window won't open up for at least a couple years. Here is how I would breakdown the 40-man roster now that the 2018 chance of contention has vanished.

Our Best Trade Pieces:

1) Machado (FA19)- I don't really need to explain why the Orioles NEED to trade him, hopefully ASAP. 

2) Schoop (FA20) - I know this one will hurt, but if the 2018 Orioles aren't good, I have a hard time believing the 2019 Orioles will be good. He only has one year of control left after 2018 and he might even bring back a bigger package than Machado considering that. I haven't heard of any serious extension discussions.

3) Jones (FA19)- Orioles Hall of Famer no doubt but I'm not a sentimental type. Above all the fans want a winning product on the field and Jonesy is a valuable outfielder who is unfortunately on the wrong side of 30 and likely won't be a capable starting outfielder by the time the Orioles are ready to compete again.

Our Secondary Trade Pieces:

1) Britton (FA19) - He should have been traded a while ago. He is an expensive, often injured closer on the wrong side of 30 (not a piece for the next contending Orioles team). Hopefully he can come back soon enough and pitch decently to cultivate some value.

2) Brach (FA19) - Ditto with Britton justification although he is durable.

3) O'Day (FA20) - Not a terrible contract and a contender might want him down the stretch if he can limit the home-runs.

4) Joseph (FA21) - Although he still has some control left, catching depth is not a weakness of the organization. He has proven to be a solid albeit inconsistent catcher at times. He accumulated a 2.3 and 1.6 WAR in limited work in 2015 and 2017 respectively. Hopefully his offensive production won't replicate his 2016 season and he is actually somewhat valuable.

5) Alvarez/Valencia/Tillman/Rasmus (FA19) - Just putting them here in case any of them start to look like major league capable players like they have in the past and they amass enough value to get a lower level prospect.

The Contracts We Are Stuck With In The Near Future For Better Or For Worse:

Davis, Trumbo, Cobb, & Cashner

Let's Evaluate Our Major League Young/Controllable Talent:

1) Bundy - I'm a big fan of Bundy and I think it would be a smart move to extend him now. We don't want him to have one year of control left just as the Orioles are getting good again. Lock him down and build the future rotation around him. He's 25 and is the first home-grown stud since Bedard.

2) Gausman - He's not going to be the front end of the rotation pitcher we wanted, but he's serviceable nonetheless. He might not be a part of the next Orioles contending team but he could be useful to keep around. No real reason to trade him yet.

3) Mancini - He doesn't seep to stop hitting, but does he have indisputable 1B/DH power? He could take over long-term once Trumbo is gone via trade (luckily) or free agency.

4) Givens - He could probably be the closer of the bad Orioles teams in the next couple years and accumulate saves (value) until he gets too expensive/on the wrong side of 30.

5) Belier - He could probably be the set-up man of the bad Orioles teams in the next couple years and accumulate holds (value) until he gets too expensive/even older.

6) Santander - He's clearly over-matched right now but just a couple more weeks until we can control of a decent power-hitting prospect that can regain confidence at Bowie for the rest of 2018.

7) Sisco - I'm also a big fan of Sisco and he can be paired with Austin Wynns for the long-term once Joseph is gone.

8) Beckham - He could probably be the shortstop of the bad Orioles teams in the next couple years and until he gets too expensive/on the wrong side of 30.

9) Araujo - He clearly has electric stuff and is worth the flyer even if he goes throw some rough outings. Hopefully his fate is better than that of Jason Garcia.

10) Rickard - If he can show sustained success at AAA he should get a chance to show he is a capable outfielder.

Capable Relievers Or Waiver Wire Material?

Castro, Wright, Hart, Ynoa, Lee, Yacabonis

For As Tempting As It May Seem To Let The Youngings Play, Please Don't Rush The Following To The Majors Unless They Are Worthy Of A Promotion:

Hunter Harvey, David Hess, Tanner Scott, Yefry Ramirez, Austin Hays, DJ Stewart, Cedric Mullins, & Ryan Mountcastle

 

what do you guys think?

We're not stuck with the Cashner contract.  We can definitely move him if he keeps his ERA under 5.  I would hate to lose an innings eater like him but if someone offers us a favorable deal we should take it.  Look at what we gave up in 2013 for Feldman and Norris who are probably worse than Cashner is right now.  

[FanSince88]

9 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

The team would have to play .600 ball (84 wins in 139 games) to win 90 games. It's not happening. Dan Duquette did reign over a good Orioles team from 2012-2016 (can't give him all the credit in those early years because many pieces were already here). As a fan who was born in 1998 (the year the losing streak started), I am grateful for him doing his part in changing a losing culture. Unfortunately, he has made too many mistakes and the product of those mistakes is on the field right now. In this business, if you make too many mistakes, you lose your job. The 2012-2016 window has closed, and I'm operating under the assumption that a new window won't open up for at least a couple years. Here is how I would breakdown the 40-man roster now that the 2018 chance of contention has vanished.

Our Best Trade Pieces:

1) Machado (FA19)- I don't really need to explain why the Orioles NEED to trade him, hopefully ASAP. 

2) Schoop (FA20) - I know this one will hurt, but if the 2018 Orioles aren't good, I have a hard time believing the 2019 Orioles will be good. He only has one year of control left after 2018 and he might even bring back a bigger package than Machado considering that. I haven't heard of any serious extension discussions.

3) Jones (FA19)- Orioles Hall of Famer no doubt but I'm not a sentimental type. Above all the fans want a winning product on the field and Jonesy is a valuable outfielder who is unfortunately on the wrong side of 30 and likely won't be a capable starting outfielder by the time the Orioles are ready to compete again.

Our Secondary Trade Pieces:

1) Britton (FA19) - He should have been traded a while ago. He is an expensive, often injured closer on the wrong side of 30 (not a piece for the next contending Orioles team). Hopefully he can come back soon enough and pitch decently to cultivate some value.

2) Brach (FA19) - Ditto with Britton justification although he is durable.

3) O'Day (FA20) - Not a terrible contract and a contender might want him down the stretch if he can limit the home-runs.

4) Joseph (FA21) - Although he still has some control left, catching depth is not a weakness of the organization. He has proven to be a solid albeit inconsistent catcher at times. He accumulated a 2.3 and 1.6 WAR in limited work in 2015 and 2017 respectively. Hopefully his offensive production won't replicate his 2016 season and he is actually somewhat valuable.

5) Alvarez/Valencia/Tillman/Rasmus (FA19) - Just putting them here in case any of them start to look like major league capable players like they have in the past and they amass enough value to get a lower level prospect.

The Contracts We Are Stuck With In The Near Future For Better Or For Worse:

Davis, Trumbo, Cobb, & Cashner

Let's Evaluate Our Major League Young/Controllable Talent:

1) Bundy - I'm a big fan of Bundy and I think it would be a smart move to extend him now. We don't want him to have one year of control left just as the Orioles are getting good again. Lock him down and build the future rotation around him. He's 25 and is the first home-grown stud since Bedard.

2) Gausman - He's not going to be the front end of the rotation pitcher we wanted, but he's serviceable nonetheless. He might not be a part of the next Orioles contending team but he could be useful to keep around. No real reason to trade him yet.

3) Mancini - He doesn't seep to stop hitting, but does he have indisputable 1B/DH power? He could take over long-term once Trumbo is gone via trade (luckily) or free agency.

4) Givens - He could probably be the closer of the bad Orioles teams in the next couple years and accumulate saves (value) until he gets too expensive/on the wrong side of 30.

5) Belier - He could probably be the set-up man of the bad Orioles teams in the next couple years and accumulate holds (value) until he gets too expensive/even older.

6) Santander - He's clearly over-matched right now but just a couple more weeks until we can control of a decent power-hitting prospect that can regain confidence at Bowie for the rest of 2018.

7) Sisco - I'm also a big fan of Sisco and he can be paired with Austin Wynns for the long-term once Joseph is gone.

8) Beckham - He could probably be the shortstop of the bad Orioles teams in the next couple years and until he gets too expensive/on the wrong side of 30.

9) Araujo - He clearly has electric stuff and is worth the flyer even if he goes throw some rough outings. Hopefully his fate is better than that of Jason Garcia.

10) Rickard - If he can show sustained success at AAA he should get a chance to show he is a capable outfielder.

Capable Relievers Or Waiver Wire Material?

Castro, Wright, Hart, Ynoa, Lee, Yacabonis

For As Tempting As It May Seem To Let The Youngings Play, Please Don't Rush The Following To The Majors Unless They Are Worthy Of A Promotion:

Hunter Harvey, David Hess, Tanner Scott, Yefry Ramirez, Austin Hays, DJ Stewart, Cedric Mullins, & Ryan Mountcastle

 

what do you guys think?

I like the idea of extending Bundy but we might want to wait until he hits a rough patch to start a discussion.  Buy low.  

We should be open to trading Gausman if someone blows us away with an offer than includes multiple blue chip "can't miss" prospects.  

I also think we could trade Trumbo, his contract isn't horrible and there's only a year and a half left.  It's not that huge of a risk anymore.  If he has an OPS of .750 or over near the deadline, we should be able to move him.  We may not get much in return but we could probably get someone to pick up his salary if we wanted to clear it off our books.  

[Camden_yardbird]

15 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

I like the idea of extending Bundy but we might want to wait until he hits a rough patch to start a discussion.  Buy low.  

It doesn't work that way.  Value is established over statistically significant period of time.  The team knows that, the agent knows that.  One rough patch or hot streak will not alter the contract.

[wildbillhiccup]

9 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

The team would have to play .600 ball (84 wins in 139 games) to win 90 games. It's not happening. Dan Duquette did reign over a good Orioles team from 2012-2016 (can't give him all the credit in those early years because many pieces were already here). As a fan who was born in 1998 (the year the losing streak started), I am grateful for him doing his part in changing a losing culture. Unfortunately, he has made too many mistakes and the product of those mistakes is on the field right now. In this business, if you make too many mistakes, you lose your job. The 2012-2016 window has closed, and I'm operating under the assumption that a new window won't open up for at least a couple years. Here is how I would breakdown the 40-man roster now that the 2018 chance of contention has vanished.

Our Best Trade Pieces:

1) Machado (FA19)- I don't really need to explain why the Orioles NEED to trade him, hopefully ASAP. 

2) Schoop (FA20) - I know this one will hurt, but if the 2018 Orioles aren't good, I have a hard time believing the 2019 Orioles will be good. He only has one year of control left after 2018 and he might even bring back a bigger package than Machado considering that. I haven't heard of any serious extension discussions.

3) Jones (FA19)- Orioles Hall of Famer no doubt but I'm not a sentimental type. Above all the fans want a winning product on the field and Jonesy is a valuable outfielder who is unfortunately on the wrong side of 30 and likely won't be a capable starting outfielder by the time the Orioles are ready to compete again.

Our Secondary Trade Pieces:

1) Britton (FA19) - He should have been traded a while ago. He is an expensive, often injured closer on the wrong side of 30 (not a piece for the next contending Orioles team). Hopefully he can come back soon enough and pitch decently to cultivate some value.

2) Brach (FA19) - Ditto with Britton justification although he is durable.

3) O'Day (FA20) - Not a terrible contract and a contender might want him down the stretch if he can limit the home-runs.

4) Joseph (FA21) - Although he still has some control left, catching depth is not a weakness of the organization. He has proven to be a solid albeit inconsistent catcher at times. He accumulated a 2.3 and 1.6 WAR in limited work in 2015 and 2017 respectively. Hopefully his offensive production won't replicate his 2016 season and he is actually somewhat valuable.

5) Alvarez/Valencia/Tillman/Rasmus (FA19) - Just putting them here in case any of them start to look like major league capable players like they have in the past and they amass enough value to get a lower level prospect.

The Contracts We Are Stuck With In The Near Future For Better Or For Worse:

Davis, Trumbo, Cobb, & Cashner

Let's Evaluate Our Major League Young/Controllable Talent:

1) Bundy - I'm a big fan of Bundy and I think it would be a smart move to extend him now. We don't want him to have one year of control left just as the Orioles are getting good again. Lock him down and build the future rotation around him. He's 25 and is the first home-grown stud since Bedard.

2) Gausman - He's not going to be the front end of the rotation pitcher we wanted, but he's serviceable nonetheless. He might not be a part of the next Orioles contending team but he could be useful to keep around. No real reason to trade him yet.

3) Mancini - He doesn't seep to stop hitting, but does he have indisputable 1B/DH power? He could take over long-term once Trumbo is gone via trade (luckily) or free agency.

4) Givens - He could probably be the closer of the bad Orioles teams in the next couple years and accumulate saves (value) until he gets too expensive/on the wrong side of 30.

5) Belier - He could probably be the set-up man of the bad Orioles teams in the next couple years and accumulate holds (value) until he gets too expensive/even older.

6) Santander - He's clearly over-matched right now but just a couple more weeks until we can control of a decent power-hitting prospect that can regain confidence at Bowie for the rest of 2018.

7) Sisco - I'm also a big fan of Sisco and he can be paired with Austin Wynns for the long-term once Joseph is gone.

8) Beckham - He could probably be the shortstop of the bad Orioles teams in the next couple years and until he gets too expensive/on the wrong side of 30.

9) Araujo - He clearly has electric stuff and is worth the flyer even if he goes throw some rough outings. Hopefully his fate is better than that of Jason Garcia.

10) Rickard - If he can show sustained success at AAA he should get a chance to show he is a capable outfielder.

Capable Relievers Or Waiver Wire Material?

Castro, Wright, Hart, Ynoa, Lee, Yacabonis

For As Tempting As It May Seem To Let The Youngings Play, Please Don't Rush The Following To The Majors Unless They Are Worthy Of A Promotion:

Hunter Harvey, David Hess, Tanner Scott, Yefry Ramirez, Austin Hays, DJ Stewart, Cedric Mullins, & Ryan Mountcastle

 

what do you guys think?

I think Britton has a chance to jump up to the first list if he comes back and shows he's healthy. Plenty of teams could use a lights out lefty in their pen. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I think Britton has a chance to jump up to the first list if he comes back and shows he's healthy. Plenty of teams could use a lights out lefty in their pen. 

I'll be pleasantly surprised if 2016 Britton shows up. 

I think 2017 Britton shows up and the deadline offers are worse than what they turned down last year.

[Aglets]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll be pleasantly surprised if 2016 Britton shows up. 

I think 2017 Britton shows up and the deadline offers are worse than what they turned down last year.

Yea this seems like the most likely outcome to me too.........unfortunately.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll be pleasantly surprised if 2016 Britton shows up. 

I think 2017 Britton shows up and the deadline offers are worse than what they turned down last year.

2016 Britton isn’t showing up.   But the 2014-15 version would be plenty attractive to teams at the deadline.   

[wildbillhiccup]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll be pleasantly surprised if 2016 Britton shows up. 

I think 2017 Britton shows up and the deadline offers are worse than what they turned down last year.

The return would have to be worse right? Because he's under contract for less time. Maybe we need to create a tier below Schoop and Machado for Jones and Britton? 

And honestly, is there any reason Cobb and Cashner aren't on that list? The team should basically be holding a yard sale. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

The return would have to be worse right? Because he's under contract for less time. Maybe we need to create a tier below Schoop and Machado for Jones and Britton? 

And honestly, is there any reason Cobb and Cashner aren't on that list? The team should basically be holding a yard sale. 

 

Was just me reminding the folks that didn't want to trade Britton for the rumored returns that sometimes it's best to make the deal, since I think the same thing will be happening with some of our guys this year.

I don't see, other than at an "intangibles"  level why anyone would trade for Jones.

I don't think Cobb has any excess value right now, Cashner probably does.

[Ripken]

It's almost like, this team should have rebuilt after the 2015 season.  Huh, would could have seen that coming?

[wildbillhiccup]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Was just me reminding the folks that didn't want to trade Britton for the rumored returns that sometimes it's best to make the deal, since I think the same thing will be happening with some of our guys this year.

I don't see, other than at an "intangibles"  level why anyone would trade for Jones.

I don't think Cobb has any excess value right now, Cashner probably does.

Maybe not now, but I think they should be open to the idea of dealing them. There always seems to be a trade market for SPs at the deadline. 

[Aristotelian]

One small edit: in no way, shape, or form, does Tillman have any positive value to a Major League baseball team. Even less than Joseph. 

Both Beckham and Schoop are "tweeners" who could be part of a retool, but also could be traded as part of a rebuild. Unfortunately, Beckham has not been the same player he was last year and has done nothing to increase his trade value, but it could happen.

[foxfield]

20 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

One small edit: in no way, shape, or form, does Tillman have any positive value to a Major League baseball team. Even less than Joseph. 

Both Beckham and Schoop are "tweeners" who could be part of a retool, but also could be traded as part of a rebuild. Unfortunately, Beckham has not been the same player he was last year and has done nothing to increase his trade value, but it could happen.

Honestly, Tillman's last start could be beginning to build value, but...yea.

[atomic]

11 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Honestly, Tillman's last start could be beginning to build value, but...yea.

A couple of times during the game Tillman's fastball registered 87 mph.  I think Tillman's career is just about over.  He had a good run.