Rosenthal on Tex and the Orioles

[Mackus]

Yes, the debate about your ability to constantly put words into my mouth..Again, thanks for that.

Stop this nonsense.

I didn't put any words in your mouth. You clearly said:

No one cares about his OPS+.

I never said that GMs care about it more or less than any other stat. I have no idea how much they value that stat over any one other stat. My point is that they use all the data they have available. Some stats may be more heavily favored by some GMs over others, that's why I said:

Certainly different guys will have different weights applied to what is important among these points, but they are all there.

[Sports Guy]

Stop this nonsense.

I didn't put any words in your mouth. You clearly said:

I never said that GMs care about it more or less than any other stat. I have no idea how much they value that stat over any one other stat. My point is that they use all the data they have available. Some stats may be more heavily favored by some GMs over others, that's why I said:

You take everything too literally Mac.

In the grand scheme of things, they look at it but if you want that player and are willing to pay for him, a lower OPS+ versus the traditional stats being higher ain't gonna stop you from going hard after that player.

It just isn't happening.

[tywright]

You and Mackus must have gone to the same reading comprehension school.

I HAVE NEVER SAID THAT THEY DON'T LOOK AT ALL STATS!

They just put a lot more weight into the "old school" stats and I am speaking in general terms, not overall.

All I did was ask you if you have seen and heard a GM say this.

[Sports Guy]

All I did was ask you if you have seen and heard a GM say this.

Pretty much anytime you hear a GM interviewed about a player, he inevitably starts citing the old school stats.

I don't even usually hear GMs mention OPS.

That doesn't mean they don't pay attention to them but again, i think there are a lot more Joe Morgans than Billy Beanes out there.

Sherrill could have the same stats he has right now but not the saves and he is worth less...He has great value because of the save column.

[TGO]

You take everything too literally Mac.

And you say lots of things in absolute terms and then later claim not to have meant it absolutely.

We all have our faults.

[Mackus]

In the grand scheme of things, they look at it but if you want that player and are willing to pay for him, a lower OPS+ versus the traditional stats being higher ain't gonna stop you from going hard after that player.

It just isn't happening.

I agree with that. I wasn't trying to imply that if a guy has good HR and RBI numbers that he won't get paid. Although sometimes even that isn't enough to save a player if they are terrible in every other factor (Tony Batista). In splitting hairs amongst guys that are both generally really good just in different ways, it all comes down to GMs appraoch. Do they favor a high batting average team, a high power team, high team speed, high OBP? Everything is factored in, but each GM will have personal preferences (also influenced by coaching staff often times) about what they want the makeup of the team to be.

I forget exactly how we got down this tangent, or what the originaly debate was about. But Tex is gonna get paid big time this offseason, whether he is right at his usual numbers or slightly below. And I think teams will be going 7 and possibly even 8 years based on recent contracts of other guys in similar situations.

[Sports Guy]

I agree with that. I wasn't trying to imply that if a guy has good HR and RBI numbers that he won't get paid. Although sometimes even that isn't enough to save a player if they are terrible in every other factor (Tony Batista). In splitting hairs amongst guys that are both generally really good just in different ways, it all comes down to GMs appraoch. Do they favor a high batting average team, a high power team, high team speed, high OBP? Everything is factored in, but each GM will have personal preferences (also influenced by coaching staff often times) about what they want the makeup of the team to be.

I forget exactly how we got down this tangent, or what the originaly debate was about. But Tex is gonna get paid big time this offseason, whether he is right at his usual numbers or slightly below. And I think teams will be going 7 and possibly even 8 years based on recent contracts of other guys in similar situations.

If Tex ends up with a 275ish BA and under 30 homers, he will get paid less than if he had a 300 BA and 40 homers..This despite a high OPS+(if he has that), a track record, good defense, etc...

[oriole_way]

Since there's all this talk about OPS+, 40 hr vs 28 hr, Adam Dunn and Mark Teixeira, and whether GMs value OPS+ , etc., let's take a look at these two players.

1. Adam Dunn has consistently outhomered Teixeira over the past 4.5 years. Dunn has hit 184 hr since the start of 2004. Teixeira has hit 157 hr during that span. Dunn has hit the 40 hr plateau 4 times and is on pace to do so again this year. Teixeira has hit the 40 hr plateau once, and is on pace for only 27 hr this year.

2. Although Dunn has outhomered Teixeira, Teixeira has put up slightly better OPS+ stats. Dunn's OPS+ over the past 4.5 years: 146, 141, 114, 136, 126. Teixeira's OPS+ stats over the past 4.5 years: 131, 144, 126, 150, 120.

3. Adam Dunn (11/9/79) is only 5 months older than Mark Teixeira (4/11/80) and they both hit the FA market this offseason.

So while this isn't the perfect example, it is an example of one player who hits more hr vs another player who hits fewer hr but yet has a slightly better OPS+. And they are both about the same age and will both be FA this offseason.

(The only way this doesn't fit is that Teixeira usually hits for a higher avg than Dunn, but trying to find a guy who hits 40 hr and bats 290 but has a significantly lower OPS+ than a similar aged guy who hits 28 hr with a 270 BA is pretty difficult to do.)

So who will get the more lucrative contract this offseason?

I believe that Teixeira will get a (possibly much) better contract than Dunn any way you look at it (number of years, total money, average yearly salary).

And while we could say that Teixeira plays much better defense than Dunn, corner outfielders who can mash but can't field that well still get very lucrative contracts (see Manny Ramirez, Barry Bonds in his later years, etc.).

[TyCobb]

If Tex ends up with a 275ish BA and under 30 homers, he will get paid less than if he had a 300 BA and 40 homers..This despite a high OPS+(if he has that), a track record, good defense, etc...

OPS+ takes into account Park Factor. I am pretty sure GM note if a player is in a hitters park or not. Tex hitting 40 hrs in Texas (hitters park) v Tex hitting 28 hrs in a pitchers park. I pretty sure I heard GM's talk about players playing in pitchers/hitters park when they justify why they made the move. So they could conclude that Tex 40 at Texas = Tex 28 at Atlanta.

[Lefty0315]

Pretty much anytime you hear a GM interviewed about a player, he inevitably starts citing the old school stats.

I don't even usually hear GMs mention OPS.

That doesn't mean they don't pay attention to them but again, i think there are a lot more Joe Morgans than Billy Beanes out there.

Sherrill could have the same stats he has right now but not the saves and he is worth less...He has great value because of the save column.

Most the time the GM is doing a run of the mill interview where the target audience is the general fan. The GM is going to appeal to what the regular guy knows and that would be the traditional stats.

[davearm]

Pretty much anytime you hear a GM interviewed about a player, he inevitably starts citing the old school stats.

I don't even usually hear GMs mention OPS.

That doesn't mean they don't pay attention to them but again, i think there are a lot more Joe Morgans than Billy Beanes out there.

Sherrill could have the same stats he has right now but not the saves and he is worth less...He has great value because of the save column.

See if there's enough alphabet soup in the following quote from Neal Huntington to suit your tastes.

The Pirates upper management has widely ignored OBP (on base percentage) in the past. How important will OBP be in player evaluation under your leadership?

-- Eric S., Pennsboro, W.Va

We are going to utilize several objective measures of player performance to evaluate and develop players. We'll rely on the more traditional objective evaluations: OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage) , WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), Runs Created, ERC (Component ERA), GB/FB (ground ball to fly ball ratio), K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings), K/BB (strikeouts to walks ratio), BB%, etc., but we'll also look to rely on some of the more recent variations: VORP (value over replacement player), Relative Performance, EqAve (equivalent average), EqOBP (equivalent on base percentage), EqSLG (equivalent slugging percentage), BIP% (balls put into play percentage), wOBA (weighted on base average), Range Factor, PMR (probabilistic model of range) and Zone Rating.

That said, we will continue to stress the importance of our subjective evaluations. Succinctly stated, we believe that a combination of quality objective and subjective analysis will allow us to maximize our probability of success and to make the best possible decisions.

Link

There's a vast spectrum of evaluation philosophies across the 30 GMs. There are undoubtedly some "old school" guys, nobody sane would deny that.

But IMO the thinking around the industry is a lot more progressive than you're giving credit for. I'd say the successes of guys like Beane and Epstein have really changed the culture quite a bit.

[Fan4Life]

Since there's all this talk about OPS+, 40 hr vs 28 hr, Adam Dunn and Mark Teixeira, and whether GMs value OPS+ , etc., let's take a look at these two players.

1. Adam Dunn has consistently outhomered Teixeira over the past 4.5 years. Dunn has hit 184 hr since the start of 2004. Teixeira has hit 157 hr during that span. Dunn has hit the 40 hr plateau 4 times and is on pace to do so again this year. Teixeira has hit the 40 hr plateau once, and is on pace for only 27 hr this year.

2. Although Dunn has outhomered Teixeira, Teixeira has put up slightly better OPS+ stats. Dunn's OPS+ over the past 4.5 years: 146, 141, 114, 136, 126. Teixeira's OPS+ stats over the past 4.5 years: 131, 144, 126, 150, 120.

3. Adam Dunn (11/9/79) is only 5 months older than Mark Teixeira (4/11/80) and they both hit the FA market this offseason.

So while this isn't the perfect example, it is an example of one player who hits more hr vs another player who hits fewer hr but yet has a slightly better OPS+. And they are both about the same age and will both be FA this offseason.

(The only way this doesn't fit is that Teixeira usually hits for a higher avg than Dunn, but trying to find a guy who hits 40 hr and bats 290 but has a significantly lower OPS+ than a similar aged guy who hits 28 hr with a 270 BA is pretty difficult to do.)

So who will get the more lucrative contract this offseason?

I believe that Teixeira will get a (possibly much) better contract than Dunn any way you look at it (number of years, total money, average yearly salary).

And while we could say that Teixeira plays much better defense than Dunn, corner outfielders who can mash but can't field that well still get very lucrative contracts (see Manny Ramirez, Barry Bonds in his later years, etc.).

Ok, you convinced me, sign Tex for 8/$160 AND sign Dunn for 7.5/$150.

[TyCobb]

Since there's all this talk about OPS+, 40 hr vs 28 hr, Adam Dunn and Mark Teixeira, and whether GMs value OPS+ , etc., let's take a look at these two players.

1. Adam Dunn has consistently outhomered Teixeira over the past 4.5 years. Dunn has hit 184 hr since the start of 2004. Teixeira has hit 157 hr during that span. Dunn has hit the 40 hr plateau 4 times and is on pace to do so again this year. Teixeira has hit the 40 hr plateau once, and is on pace for only 27 hr this year.

2. Although Dunn has outhomered Teixeira, Teixeira has put up slightly better OPS+ stats. Dunn's OPS+ over the past 4.5 years: 146, 141, 114, 136, 126. Teixeira's OPS+ stats over the past 4.5 years: 131, 144, 126, 150, 120.

3. Adam Dunn (11/9/79) is only 5 months older than Mark Teixeira (4/11/80) and they both hit the FA market this offseason.

So while this isn't the perfect example, it is an example of one player who hits more hr vs another player who hits fewer hr but yet has a slightly better OPS+. And they are both about the same age and will both be FA this offseason.

(The only way this doesn't fit is that Teixeira usually hits for a higher avg than Dunn, but trying to find a guy who hits 40 hr and bats 290 but has a significantly lower OPS+ than a similar aged guy who hits 28 hr with a 270 BA is pretty difficult to do.)

So who will get the more lucrative contract this offseason?

I believe that Teixeira will get a (possibly much) better contract than Dunn any way you look at it (number of years, total money, average yearly salary).

And while we could say that Teixeira plays much better defense than Dunn, corner outfielders who can mash but can't field that well still get very lucrative contracts (see Manny Ramirez, Barry Bonds in his later years, etc.).

Manny and Bonds are future HOF and some of the best hitters of all time. Dunn is going to be a DH most likely and would probably get around 14-16 million a year.

[Sports Guy]

Most the time the GM is doing a run of the mill interview where the target audience is the general fan. The GM is going to appeal to what the regular guy knows and that would be the traditional stats.

There is a lot of truth to this and I was thinking the same thing...The other side to that is the actions of a lot of these guys seem to back up what i am saying.

[Sports Guy]

See if there's enough alphabet soup in the following quote from Neal Huntington to suit your tastes.

Link

There's a vast spectrum of evaluation philosophies across the 30 GMs. There are undoubtedly some "old school" guys, nobody sane would deny that.

But IMO the thinking around the industry is a lot more progressive than you're giving credit for. I'd say the successes of guys like Beane and Epstein have really changed the culture quite a bit.

Thanks for that...I certainly agree that there are some out there that are going to look at these things but I still feel there are more old school guys out there right now.