The Value of the #1 Overall Pick

[TonySoprano]

There's all this talk about tanking for #1 overall.  Yes, Captain Obvious, talent is there, but it can be found all over the draft.  It all comes down to scouting...and luck.   Whether the O's end up 1st or 2nd, it's not a certainty they'll get the best player.
From 2001-2013, the #1 overall pick has the highest career WAR only 3 times. 

#1 Overall + WAR; Notables +WAR (pick #)

2013 Appel N/A ; Bryant 21.4 (2)
2012 Correa 19.4;  Seager 13.7 (18)
2011 Cole 14.5; Lindor 20.2 (18)
2010 Harper 24.2; Sale 39.8 (13), ManNY 29.8 (3)
2009 Strasburg 25.9; Trout 60.7 (25)
2008 Beckham 4.1; Posey 40.3 (5), Hosmer 15.7 (3)
2007 Price 35.1; Heyward 34.4 (14), Bumgarner 32.1 (10)
2006 Hochevar 3.6; Kershaw 61.9 (7), Longoria 50.3 (3), Scherzer 49.3 (11)
2005 Upton 33.3; Tulowitzki 44.1 (7), Gordon 34.2 (2)
2004 Bush 2.3; Verlander 60.9 (2), Weaver 34.4 (12)
2003 Young 2.4; Markakis 32.2 (7), Hill 23.7 (13), Danks 20.3 (9)
2002 Bulington -0.3; Greinke 62.7 (6), Hamels 54.7 (17)
2001 Mauer 54.6; Teixeira 51.8 (5)

[Can_of_corn]

But in each of those cases the team picking first had the opportunity  to pick the player with the highest career WAR.

The team picking fifth doesn't have that.

[TonySoprano]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But in each of those cases the team picking first had the opportunity  to pick the player with the highest career WAR.

The team picking fifth doesn't have that.

Yes, they had the opportunity but didn't.  The team picking 2nd did as well in 10 of the 13 years I noted.  The question comes down to how well do you think the Orioles with the pick?  Will ownership still be an influence and factors such as signability enter into the pick?  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, TonySoprano said:

Yes, they had the opportunity but didn't.  The team picking 2nd did as well in 10 of the 13 years I noted.  The question comes down to how well do you think the Orioles with the pick?  Will ownership still be an influence and factors such as signability enter into the pick?

As I just said in another thread signability isn't the issue it once was.  Who is going to turn down 1/1 money and enter the draft only to be offered, at best, 1/1 slot money at a later date?

[TonySoprano]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

As I just said in another thread signability isn't the issue it once was.  Who is going to turn down 1/1 money and enter the draft only to be offered, at best, 1/1 slot money at a later date?

What about the more relevant question of do you trust the Orioles to make the best pick?

Year    Rnd    OvPck    Name    WAR
2013    1    22    Hunter Harvey    
2013    1    37    Josh Hart     
2012    1    4    Kevin Gausman     9.7
2011    1    4    Dylan Bundy     6.4
2010    1    3    Manny Machado    29.8
2009    1    5    Matt Hobgood     
2008    1    4    Brian Matusz    2.3
2007    1    5    Matt Wieters     17.8
2006    1    9    Billy Rowell    
2006    1s    32    *Pedro Beato     -1.0
2005    1    13    Brandon Snyder    0.1
2005    1s    48    *Garrett Olson     -2.7
2004    1    8    Wade Townsend    
2003    1    7    Nick Markakis     32.2
2002    1    4    Adam Loewen     -0.3
2001    1    7    Chris Smith    
2001    1    19    *Mike Fontenot     4.3
2001    1s    31    *Bryan Bass    

[pastorfan]

11 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Yes, they had the opportunity but didn't.  The team picking 2nd did as well in 10 of the 13 years I noted.  The question comes down to how well do you think the Orioles with the pick?  Will ownership still be an influence and factors such as signability enter into the pick?  

I appreciate the effort you put in on this, but just give me the first pick. KC is smart enough to unload now. We will wait it out and trade next to nothing. This is not what "might" happen this is what will happen. We all know how the O's roll.

[pastorfan]

2 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

What about the more relevant question of do you trust the Orioles to make the best pick?

Year    Rnd    OvPck    Name    WAR
2013    1    22    Hunter Harvey    
2013    1    37    Josh Hart     
2012    1    4    Kevin Gausman     9.7
2011    1    4    Dylan Bundy     6.4
2010    1    3    Manny Machado    29.8
2009    1    5    Matt Hobgood     
2008    1    4    Brian Matusz    2.3
2007    1    5    Matt Wieters     17.8
2006    1    9    Billy Rowell    
2006    1s    32    *Pedro Beato     -1.0
2005    1    13    Brandon Snyder    0.1
2005    1s    48    *Garrett Olson     -2.7
2004    1    8    Wade Townsend    
2003    1    7    Nick Markakis     32.2
2002    1    4    Adam Loewen     -0.3
2001    1    7    Chris Smith    
2001    1    19    *Mike Fontenot     4.3
2001    1s    31    *Bryan Bass    

No, I don't. I still love when they passed on Buster Posey in the 2008 draft because they said they had drafted a catcher the year before....no wait I like the Hobgood pick better. The only reason they drafted Manny was because after the first two, it was obvious he was by far the best available.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

What about the more relevant question of do you trust the Orioles to make the best pick?

Year    Rnd    OvPck    Name    WAR
2013    1    22    Hunter Harvey    
2013    1    37    Josh Hart     
2012    1    4    Kevin Gausman     9.7
2011    1    4    Dylan Bundy     6.4
2010    1    3    Manny Machado    29.8
2009    1    5    Matt Hobgood     
2008    1    4    Brian Matusz    2.3
2007    1    5    Matt Wieters     17.8
2006    1    9    Billy Rowell    
2006    1s    32    *Pedro Beato     -1.0
2005    1    13    Brandon Snyder    0.1
2005    1s    48    *Garrett Olson     -2.7
2004    1    8    Wade Townsend    
2003    1    7    Nick Markakis     32.2
2002    1    4    Adam Loewen     -0.3
2001    1    7    Chris Smith    
2001    1    19    *Mike Fontenot     4.3
2001    1s    31    *Bryan Bass    

As far as I know Angelos only had input in two of those selections and none since 2003.

I think the current regime has done an acceptable job.  Heck year one Harvey and Bundy both looked like the best player in their draft class.

[tntoriole]

One could go through every team and see many failed number 1picks over the last 25 years.  However, the odds of getting a huge talent go up a small amount.  But it is mainly determined by non statistical, non predictable variables...like how does a Mike Trout or an Andre Dawson (11th round) or a Paul Goldschmidt (8th round) or a Nolan Ryan (12th round)  or an Albert Pujols 13 th round grow into insane skills that NO baseball scout or guru could have seen (or obviously they would have been picked way sooner)..it is about drive, growth, adaptibility...all hard to predict in the individual human being. 

I would much rather see MLB give the first five teams in the draft TWO picks each selected before the rest of the teams get only one in the first round rather than so much of an emphasis on the number one overall. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

One could go through every team and see many failed number 1picks over the last 25 years.  However, the odds of getting a huge talent go up a small amount.  But it is mainly determined by non statistical, non predictable variables...like how does a Mike Trout or an Andre Dawson (11th round) or a Paul Goldschmidt (8th round) or a Nolan Ryan (12th round)  or an Albert Pujols 13 th round grow into insane skills that NO baseball scout or guru could have seen (or obviously they would have been picked way sooner)..it is about drive, growth, adaptibility...all hard to predict in the individual human being. 

I would much rather see MLB give the first five teams in the draft TWO picks each selected before the rest of the teams get only one in the first round rather than so much of an emphasis on the number one overall. 

 

Interesting idea, but pretty high on the list of things MLB is not currently interested in doing is further incentivizing losing.

[Natty]

I predict if the O's do get first pick...we pick a guy that ends up as a car salesman within 5 to 7 years. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Natty said:

I predict if the O's do get first pick...we pick a guy that ends up as a car salesman within 5 to 7 years. 

You mean a guy that invests in a car dealership?  Lots of guys do that.

[tntoriole]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Interesting idea, but pretty high on the list of things MLB is not currently interested in doing is further incentivizing losing.

Maybe the exact final order could be determined by a subvariable....if you have one of the worst five records, then you are in the pool that gets 2 picks in the first round, , but the exact order of selection is then determined by a positive variable...like, say, off the top of my head, the best seasonal record against division winners or other positive incentives that could creat a scenario where a losing team has an incentive to win in order to improve the position, say of their second pick in the first five teams first round. 

[Natty]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You mean a guy that invests in a car dealership?  Lots of guys do that.

No. Just a car salesman. Or someone not in pro baseball anymore...

[weams]

10 minutes ago, Natty said:

No. Just a car salesman. Or someone not in pro baseball anymore...

You dislike car salesmen?