So, how would you characterize the return on the Manny trade?

[weams]

8 hours ago, esmd said:

As far as the actual deal, I think they did well considering the situation.  I still think they could've done better last July or over the winter, but that ship had obviously sailed.  We'll know how well they really did in the next 2-3 years.

That's not how you compare these trades. You evaluate them now. What happens in the future might be a midnight boat ride away. 

[weams]

Just now, weams said:

That's not how you compare these trades. You evaluate them now. What happens in the future might be a midnight boat ride away. 

That's why the Andrew Miller deal was a good deal. Not because we did not make it. Just because we could have. 

[weams]

1 hour ago, Hallas said:

I would make a pretty big distinction between prospect evaluation and draftee evaluation.  It's really frickin hard to evaluate high schoolers with metal bats, on uneven fields, against uneven competition.  Probably even harder to evaluate Dominican players.

Once they enter the pro system, I believe that the science of figuring out the top players has become quite good.

At Double A, you have a good idea!

[weams]

2 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Nobody can correctly predict the future outcome, the sure numbers help that somebody will work well for the Orioles.

But, a sure-fire HOF? Damn, those dont grow on trees.

I think the only way this blows up for the Dodgers, if Manny turns into a bust, like Bedard did.

No. Manny had no value to the Orioles this season other than the pick/money that the Os could have had. He has value to LA. These players have potential MLB value for six additional seasons after they are deemed ready.

[esmd]

4 hours ago, weams said:

That's not how you compare these trades. You evaluate them now. What happens in the future might be a midnight boat ride away. 

I think there's two parts to the deal, or every deal, really.  There's the return on the actual deal at the time it was made re: the perceived value, and then there's the benefit of how it actually worked out with hindsight.

[Chavez Ravine]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, there certainly could be a guy at 31 who turns out better than Diaz.   But the odds of us picking that guy aren’t that great.   

A couple of thoughts here.    As I mentioned a few days ago, the average return on the no. 31-35 picks is about 2.5 rWAR.    But if you look at the typical value of the 31st-best player who debuted in a given year, it’s more like 8-9 WAR.   That means that there are a lot of guys picked later in the draft who end up being better than a lot of guys picked ahead of them.    So, I’d much rather have Diaz, who has already cleared a couple of MiL hurdles with flying colors, than hope that my no. 31 pick turns out better than Diaz.  

That is why I think the return ratio we got on the Manny trade is about right. The median expected WAR of a Diaz like player is still very hopeful. As you say,  the WAR distribution is probably highly skewed, so half the time you are going to get zero WAR out of it.  Well, probably not that bad for a Diaz like player.....but something like that in any rate. In contrast the expected WAR of Manny is far more a certain thing. Each step up the ladder gets you closer to clarity.

[Tryptamine]

Wasn't the guys I expected but it was roughly what I expected. It's funny to look back on now what people were asking for months ago. I believe there was some Russell+Montgomery+Alzolay discussion as well as Happ+Almora discussions.

[ExileAngelos]

Keith Law says we got quantity over quality.  No future stars in the deal.  Should have traded Manny in offseason and would have gotten a better return.  LOL

[Redskins Rick]

14 hours ago, weams said:

No. Manny had no value to the Orioles this season other than the pick/money that the Os could have had. He has value to LA. These players have potential MLB value for six additional seasons after they are deemed ready.

Sorry, "IF", Ive only read about the main piece in this, a 4 year minor leaguer, never got about AA ball, so sorry, if I am a doubting Thomas about any of the 5 being anything other than a replacement player if that.

 

[Redskins Rick]

7 hours ago, ExileAngelos said:

Keith Law says we got quantity over quality.  No future stars in the deal.  Should have traded Manny in offseason and would have gotten a better return.  LOL

Well, so, translate Law's words into real world and what will happen, we got crap.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Sorry, "IF", Ive only read about the main piece in this, a 4 year minor leaguer, never got about AA ball, so sorry, if I am a doubting Thomas about any of the 5 being anything other than a replacement player if that.

 

That’s pretty pessimistic.   Nobody’s a sure thing, but this is likely to produce 1-3 bona fide major leaguers.   

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Frobby said:

That’s pretty pessimistic.   Nobody’s a sure thing, but this is likely to produce 1-3 bona fide major leaguers.   

Sorry, thats exactly how I feel right now.

Its a bit better than Mussina leaving, at least they got prospects in return.

You don't let HOF players leave in their prime, its just doesn't make any sense what soever.

But, I know, thats just an opinion.

I think I said yesterday, it way to early to grade this trade.

It could turn out like Bedard for us, or it could haunt us for years.

The way this FO is being run, with DD and Buck as lame ducks, helps add to the uncertainty, and throw in the bit about Peter and/or sons back to playing GM.

You can see where my pessimism is coming from.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Sorry, thats exactly how I feel right now.

Its a bit better than Mussina leaving, at least they got prospects in return.

You don't let HOF players leave in their prime, its just doesn't make any sense what soever.

But, I know, thats just an opinion.

I think I said yesterday, it way to early to grade this trade.

It could turn out like Bedard for us, or it could haunt us for years.

The way this FO is being run, with DD and Buck as lame ducks, helps add to the uncertainty, and throw in the bit about Peter and/or sons back to playing GM.

You can see where my pessimism is coming from.

I’m just assessing the chances that the players we received will become contributors.   It’s got nothing to do with my sadness about trading Manny.   In any event, what I’m really sad about is that we didn’t take a risk and lock him up for at least a few extra years back when that was feasible.    I’m not that sad about trading him 2 month before he becomes a free agent in a season where we’d be lucky to win 50 games even with Manny.

Anyway, back to the return we got. There’s almost no chance it will equal the return we received for two years of Bedard.    But I think there’s a pretty good chance it could equal or exceed what we got in exchange for two years of Miguel Tejada (Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Dennis Sarfate and Mike Costanzo).   Those players provided about 12 WAR for us.    If Diaz pans at his midpoint expectation, he might exceed that by himself, and I think at a minimum we’ll get some good bullpen innings from Kremer and Pop.

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m just assessing the chances that the players we received will become contributors.   It’s got nothing to do with my sadness about trading Manny.   In any event, what I’m really sad about is that we didn’t take a risk and lock him up for at least a few extra years back when that was feasible.    I’m not that sad about trading him 2 month before he becomes a free agent in a season where we’d be lucky to win 50 games even with Manny.

Anyway, back to the return we got. There’s almost no chance it will equal the return we received for two years of Bedard.    But I think there’s a pretty good chance it could equal or exceed what we got in exchange for two years of Miguel Tejada (Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Dennis Sarfate and Mike Costanzo).   Those players provided about 12 WAR for us.    If Diaz pans at his midpoint expectation, he might exceed that by himself, and I think at a minimum we’ll get some good bullpen innings from Kremer and Pop.

You are probably very correct in your assessment of the trade.

I am letting emotions cloud my thinking, I will freely admit that.

Too much RL in RL, and I look to sports as entertainment, not to add to the drama, but it is what it is.

[Number5]

8 hours ago, ExileAngelos said:

Keith Law says we got quantity over quality.  No future stars in the deal.  Should have traded Manny in offseason and would have gotten a better return.  LOL

Pretty lazy on Law's part, IMO.  Any trade evaluation should be done based on the facts and situation existing at the time of the trade.  Going back in time and trading Manny at an earlier date is certainly not an option today.  If Law, or anyone else, wants to claim it was a poor return for Machado today, they are saying that the Phillies, Brewers, Yankees, and pretty much every other team in baseball were complete idiots for failing to top the offer.