Chris Davis Trade Possible in 2019-20?

[Bradysburns]

Wow. This is grim. 

But it's a dose of hard truth. 

What I find surprising and/or interesting: consensus seems to be that this Chris has been BAD for multiple years now... that the sample size is definitive at this point, and he sucks... forever.

Yet I was griping about his K's and low BA years ago, and many knowledgeable people told me I was silly and stuck in the past (it's ALL about on-base, man). But really, his OBP was .330-something two seasons ago, and over .300 last season. And he hit dozens of homers both years.

I hold out hope that he'll at least revert to a .750-plus OPS at some point. I know the current season looks as bad as they get... but his track record is fairly loaded with evidence that the talent is there, somewhere. 

Either way, we'll have to address the "Chris Davis Question" at some point down the road...

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, vab said:

They should just cut him while they're rebuilding and, presumably, carrying a much lower payroll over the next few years. No need for this guy to take up a roster spot that could be filled by a younger player with some upside.

He's not exactly blocking a young guy with upside.  At least not unless Mountcastle fails everywhere else on the diamond.

[Bradysburns]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Chris has a decent OPS in July, but it’s only because he’s managed to hit a few homers this month.   His BA is still .177 for the month, and while I realize BA isn’t everything, I just don’t see any team wanting a guy who is well under the Mendoza line on a monthly basis.   

True on horrid average, etc. 

Let's say CD continues to perform around the current level... or at last year's level. 

What in the heck could/should we do with him through the rebuild process? It's a massive elephant in the room, and it seems there's very little the Orioles can do, other than DFA'ing him, which would be very hard to do (emotionally/financially). 

[vab]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's not exactly blocking a young guy with upside.  At least not unless Mountcastle fails everywhere else on the diamond.

Mancini can take over 1B and the club would upgrade LF - at least defensively and 1B at least offensively. It's no-brainer if they can just admit their mistake with Davis and move on.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, vab said:

Mancini can take over 1B and the club would upgrade LF - at least defensively and 1B at least offensively. It's no-brainer if they can just admit their mistake with Davis and move on.

I was including Mancini when I said there were no young guys with upside.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Kemp had some terrible WAR totals due to his defense, but his offense never got awful.  The lowest OPS he ever put up was .723.  The only analog to Davis that I know of is Adam Dunn, who posted a .569 at age 31 but bounced back to .773 over the next three years.     Honestly, I’d be astounded if Davis did that, but then again, I was very surprised when Dunn did.   

Adam Dunn is the best we could hope for. I never realized that Dunn actually bounced back. He was a comp I was thinking of the other day when it comes to Davis. 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

True on horrid average, etc. 

Let's say CD continues to perform around the current level... or at last year's level. 

What in the heck could/should we do with him through the rebuild process? It's a massive elephant in the room, and it seems there's very little the Orioles can do, other than DFA'ing him, which would be very hard to do (emotionally/financially). 

It doesn’t really hurt them financially, because the money’s been spent either way.    As to emotionally, I’m sure his teammates like him, but playing with a guy who doesn’t belong on the field and not being able to call him out is probably more emotionally draining than what they’d feel if he was cut and replaced by some halfway competent player making the minimum salary.    So far as I’m concerned, he gets 2-3 months of 2019 to show he has rebounded to at least some respectable level.   If he hasn’t, then sayonara.   

[FuManchu]

He raised his OPS by 30 points yesterday, at this pace his OPS will be 2.231 by the end of the year.

[Tony-OH]

[vab]

37 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was including Mancini when I said there were no young guys with upside.

Excuse me. I missed the declaration that Mancini's career is over at 26.

[atomic]

23 minutes ago, FuManchu said:

He raised his OPS by 30 points yesterday, at this pace his OPS will be 2.231 by the end of the year.

It is amazing that Chris Davis has kept his Batting average in the .150's.  You would think he would have a few 2 hit games and he would say goodbye to that ridiculously low average.  

[oriole]

Are there any other contracts around baseball that are comparable in their awfulness? Because the only trade we are doing involving Davis are bad contract swaps.

[Bradysburns]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It doesn’t really hurt them financially, because the money’s been spent either way.    As to emotionally, I’m sure his teammates like him, but playing with a guy who doesn’t belong on the field and not being able to call him out is probably more emotionally draining than what they’d feel if he was cut and replaced by some halfway competent player making the minimum salary.    So far as I’m concerned, he gets 2-3 months of 2019 to show he has rebounded to at least some respectable level.   If he hasn’t, then sayonara.   

We'd be eating about $70 million, give or take... but much of that is spread out over the (very far off and spread out) deferred period.

Still, for a midmarket team, that could become significant when we're trying to extend/re-sign our good players in the coming few years. That said, I expect Dan to do what's right for the team. Chris Davis is taken care of and then some for life. 

[Bradysburns]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

We'd be eating about $70 million, give or take... but much of that is spread out over the (very far off and spread out) deferred period.

Still, for a midmarket team, that could become significant when we're trying to extend/re-sign our good players in the coming few years. That said, I expect Dan to do what's right for the team. Chris Davis is taken care of and then some for life. 

We’re eating it either way.    Which is better:

a.    Pay a guy $23 mm/yr to put up seasons of -3 WAR, or 

b.   Pay $23.5 mm/yr to have some replacement level guy put up seasons of 0 WAR while Davis sits at home collecting his paychecks.

The answer is clearly b.