Updated prospect list

[Thato'sfan]

5 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

How about one you’d be shocked if they didn’t make it?  Close enough.

Luis Ortiz could be a #2 starter, has that sort of stuff. Is 22 and in AAA.

We already have a bunch of prospects who should become solid regulars. We went for upside.

Villar could bring back a nice return if he finds his 2016 form from now to the next deadline.

Cumberland is probably a backup catcher at worst.

Zimmerman might be a solid bullpen piece.  eventually.

Phillips is MLB ready and could be decent.

We got some depth, some upside(carmona and encarnacion), some trade bait change-of-scenery(Villar), money for high ceiling talent(2.5 million in int'l cash, salary dump for investments in analytics and scouting, and a near MLB ready starter with a high ceiling. So...I'm fine with the deals.

I actually quite like them.The Gausman deal is underrated due to player return, but there are other aspects which need to be accounted for.

[weams]

https://www.mlb.com/news/international-slot-money-an-asset-in-mlb/c-288723718

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, TINSTAAPP said:

Just read an article from Jim Callis on MLB.com where he states that the Orioles still have an awful farm system that ranks around 20th in baseball. Basically Callis believes the Orioles got no impact players outside of Diaz at the deadline and would have gotten more value for Schoop and Gausman if they had waited until the off-season to trade them. 

Depth is above average, high end talent is below average.    It’s going to be a long haul.    We probably have a top 2 pick coming next June, and a top 5 or higher pick the following June, plus our usual competitive balance picks will be a couple rungs higher on the ladder. The fact that you’re picking near the top of every round has a cumulative effect.    Finally, we hopefully get some impact international talent into the system.    So, maybe we’re a top 5-10 system in the next year or two.   

We did pick up some high risk high ceiling talent that could make our system look better if they show signs of maturation and refining their skills next year.    

Finally, I think both Hays and Harvey have fallen from grace this year but either or both could still have impact.   

[ISU94]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Depth is above average, high end talent is below average.    It’s going to be a long haul.    We probably have a top 2 pick coming next June, and a top 5 or higher pick the following June, plus our usual competitive balance picks will be a couple rungs higher on the ladder. The fact that you’re picking near the top of every round has a cumulative effect.    Finally, we hopefully get some impact international talent into the system.    So, maybe we’re a top 5-10 system in the next year or two.   

We did pick up some high risk high ceiling talent that could make our system look better if they show signs of maturation and refining their skills next year.    

Finally, I think both Hays and Harvey have fallen from grace this year but either or both could still have impact.   

Carmoma and JCE have a chance to be big time players in our system. Obviously both hold risk, but I loved getting those two back in the moves.

[weams]

 

[theocean]

15 hours ago, TINSTAAPP said:

Just read an article from Jim Callis on MLB.com where he states that the Orioles still have an awful farm system that ranks around 20th in baseball. Basically Callis believes the Orioles got no impact players outside of Diaz at the deadline and would have gotten more value for Schoop and Gausman if they had waited until the off-season to trade them. 

Can't say I disagree with that. I grow more disappointed with the Schoop and Gausman trades with each passing day.

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, theocean said:

Can't say I disagree with that. I grow more disappointed with the Schoop and Gausman trades with each passing day.

I’m the opposite. With each day that passes I start to remove the emotions of Schoop and Gausman being Orioles and members of our good teams. Now I’m seeing a low OBP 2B now with limited range. Gausman is Bud Norris. A two pitch pitcher with a good FB. Meanwhile, Villar has a very real chance to stay within 25 OPS points of Schoop, has more control, and is more than a boom or bust player at the plate. 

[TINSTAAPP]

8 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m the opposite. With each day that passes I start to remove the emotions of Schoop and Gausman being Orioles and members of our good teams. Now I’m seeing a low OBP 2B now with limited range. Gausman is Bud Norris. A two pitch pitcher with a good FB. Meanwhile, Villar has a very real chance to stay within 25 OPS points of Schoop, has more control, and is more than a boom or bust player at the plate. 

When he had a competent pitching coach in Dave Wallace, Gausman put up a 110 ERA+ in three seasons with a 4 WAR season in 2016. Gausman is a better pitcher than Norris ever was. Also, the Astros got Hader back in return for Norris when they traded him. Which of these prospects the Orioles got back in return are in Hader's class? The most promising prospect they got back from the Braves is a player who has a 1:8 walk to strikeout ratio in low Single A this year. 

[mdbdotcom]

1 hour ago, TINSTAAPP said:

When he had a competent pitching coach in Dave Wallace, Gausman put up a 110 ERA+ in three seasons with a 4 WAR season in 2016. Gausman is a better pitcher than Norris ever was. Also, the Astros got Hader back in return for Norris when they traded him. Which of these prospects the Orioles got back in return are in Hader's class? The most promising prospect they got back from the Braves is a player who has a 1:8 walk to strikeout ratio in low Single A this year. 

The Gausman trade was about trading liability for opportunity. We removed Gausman and O'Day from the payroll, saving over $13mm through next season. We also got $2.5mm in international slot money. For a team that needs to significantly upgrade its scouting and operations, that $13mm is worth more than Hader. If they use the international slot money well, that's a bonus. And if one of the players we got back turns out to be valuable, it's a steal.

[Tx Oriole]

12 hours ago, theocean said:

Can't say I disagree with that. I grow more disappointed with the Schoop and Gausman trades with each passing day.

I do. Who is this guy? A Yankee supporter? I don't trust those folks. 

[Tx Oriole]

12 hours ago, theocean said:

Can't say I disagree with that. I grow more disappointed with the Schoop and Gausman trades with each passing day.

You shouldn't. 

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, TINSTAAPP said:

When he had a competent pitching coach in Dave Wallace, Gausman put up a 110 ERA+ in three seasons with a 4 WAR season in 2016. Gausman is a better pitcher than Norris ever was. Also, the Astros got Hader back in return for Norris when they traded him. Which of these prospects the Orioles got back in return are in Hader's class? The most promising prospect they got back from the Braves is a player who has a 1:8 walk to strikeout ratio in low Single A this year. 

I’m sorry that you want Gausman to be Arrieta but Gausman has two pitches and inconsistent command. Jake had 4 pitches with inconsistent command. 

I know 98 looks sexy on the radar gun but it just doesn’t mean what it used to. Gausman’s arm has gotten more miles on hit, the scouting reports have gotten out, the hitters adjusted and he didn’t. 

Then the whole blame the pitching coaching argument?  Really?  He went to a top college in LSU that I’m sure doesn’t lack for coaching. You said he had Dave Wallace here. At what point is it up to the player to learn and improve and not up to some master mind coach?  

Sorry but Gausman was kind of soft. The toughest thing about him was his stupid flame tatoo he got on his pitching arm and had to immediately cover it up with a longer sleeve shirt. 

[hoosiers]

I don't disagree with Callis that we might have received more for Schoop and Gausman in the offseason, but there was competitive bidding for at least Gausman and I believe dealing these two now insured the lower payroll for next year.  We just can't field a $120M team that has lost 110 games and is on pace to repeat.  I believe our ownership needed the certainty that next year's payroll would be lower now.  If other teams smelled a salary dump in the offseason for Gausman and Schoop, then we might have received even less than we did.  Also, waiting for the offseason might have made us a less obvious destination for VVM.  Finally, as we are seeing, while Mr. Villar may not have Schoop's upside, he clearly can play some baseball and will be cheaper.

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, TINSTAAPP said:

When he had a competent pitching coach in Dave Wallace, Gausman put up a 110 ERA+ in three seasons with a 4 WAR season in 2016. Gausman is a better pitcher than Norris ever was. Also, the Astros got Hader back in return for Norris when they traded him. Which of these prospects the Orioles got back in return are in Hader's class? The most promising prospect they got back from the Braves is a player who has a 1:8 walk to strikeout ratio in low Single A this year. 

Hader was not a big piece in that deal. JCE is a much more highly regarded prospect than Hader at the time of that trade. Hader became a top prospect but neither Houston or Baltimore thought he was at the time. Houston traded him later, when he his potential was more obvious, if anything Houston screwed up.

[bpilktree67]

2 hours ago, TINSTAAPP said:

When he had a competent pitching coach in Dave Wallace, Gausman put up a 110 ERA+ in three seasons with a 4 WAR season in 2016. Gausman is a better pitcher than Norris ever was. Also, the Astros got Hader back in return for Norris when they traded him. Which of these prospects the Orioles got back in return are in Hader's class? The most promising prospect they got back from the Braves is a player who has a 1:8 walk to strikeout ratio in low Single A this year. 

Gausman threw 95+ at the time when he was younger.  This allowed him to pitch better because he had extra velocity.  You can miss your spots and get away with it when throwing 98.  When your throwing 93 those things get hit hard.  His command has never been that great and never improved but 5 extra mph gave him advantage.  As pitchers get older they loose velocity unless you are Verlander or Charlie Morton