Baseball America: What the Scouts Want

[Malike]

Just now, Hallas said:

Minor league teams have pretty consistent high quality video.  But they still send scouts to radar gun the kids.  That's still an important part of the equation.

I suspect that at some point in the near future, statcast will be installed on minor league fields and at least shared internally between teams.  But that's doable because MLB controls the minor league ecosystem.  They don't control the college and HS ecosystem.

The day that teams are built without human input will be the day that humans stop watching baseball and just follow the numbers on the spreadsheets. I'm not confident that in my lifetime, a team will be built solely only analytics without human input other than some guy plugging the numbers into a spreadsheet.

[99ct]

2 hours ago, Malike said:

So funny, I was actually thinking on the way to work about an experiment. Have some experts here put together a World Championship caliber team from a bunch of prospects and in a few years see where they are at. To think that scouts can simply drop the eye test, as well as using advanced statistics is absurd. I'd really like our "experts" here to put some teams together built on a bunch of 14-18 year olds and see what happens in about 10 years. Not feasible I know, but I literally was thinking about this on the way to work and now I read a post suggesting it.

Well, you could backtest by pulling some 5-10 year old rankings and seeing how all the top players turn out. 

[Malike]

6 minutes ago, 99ct said:

Well, you could backtest by pulling some 5-10 year old rankings and seeing how all the top players turn out. 

I suppose. I don't follow the amateur players much. It sounds like a bit of work. I don't know which high school kids were even prospects 10 years ago. I will try to do it in the future. Good idea.

[brooksfrankjim]

I just want to thank Luke, Tony, and Weams for their efforts.  I’m an old guy.  Played the game through college and have watched and attended thousands of games through the years.....and I love the fact that I learn from you and your expertise.  Thank you.

[weams]

2 hours ago, Hallas said:

Minor league teams have pretty consistent high quality video.  But they still send scouts to radar gun the kids.  That's still an important part of the equation.

I suspect that at some point in the near future, statcast will be installed on minor league fields and at least shared internally between teams.  But that's doable because MLB controls the minor league ecosystem.  They don't control the college and HS ecosystem.

They have exit velocity from Aberdeen. 

[weams]

26 minutes ago, brooksfrankjim said:

I just want to thank Luke, Tony, and Weams for their efforts.  I’m an old guy.  Played the game through college and have watched and attended thousands of games through the years.....and I love the fact that I learn from you and your expertise.  Thank you.

I'm no scout at all. But I sure watch a lot of baseball. BTW, Yusniel Diaz doubled twice off the wall tonight and Dean Kremer pitched five scoreless innings and stuck out six. 

[NedFromYork]

Well I was out of pocket for a few hours.  Glad to see you all have been having fun.  I meant in the context of scouting young players in the MiLB system for trades, etc., and international players in established leagues like Japan or KBO.  But yes, for high schoolers I would certainly rely more on things like OBP and K's for a hitter, K's and BB's for a pitcher, etc., than the "eye test."

[Hallas]

2 hours ago, 99ct said:

Well, you could backtest by pulling some 5-10 year old rankings and seeing how all the top players turn out. 

Fangraphs does this.  It’s how they determine the surplus values for players with a given FV.

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, NedFromYork said:

Well I was out of pocket for a few hours.  Glad to see you all have been having fun.  I meant in the context of scouting young players in the MiLB system for trades, etc., and international players in established leagues like Japan or KBO.  But yes, for high schoolers I would certainly rely more on things like OBP and K's for a hitter, K's and BB's for a pitcher, etc., than the "eye test."

I bet I could find you a ton of high school baseball players who don’t ever strike out (<5% K rate) that couldn’t make it past rookie ball.

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, NedFromYork said:

Well I was out of pocket for a few hours.  Glad to see you all have been having fun.  I meant in the context of scouting young players in the MiLB system for trades, etc., and international players in established leagues like Japan or KBO.  But yes, for high schoolers I would certainly rely more on things like OBP and K's for a hitter, K's and BB's for a pitcher, etc., than the "eye test."

BTW, I’m completely cool with analytics/sabermetrics and use any data I can get my hands on when attempting to evaluate a player. But just ask whoever the baseball statistician you respect the most about evaluating HS hitters by K rate and OBP and see what he or she says.

[Jammer7]

6 hours ago, NedFromYork said:

Well I was out of pocket for a few hours.  Glad to see you all have been having fun.  I meant in the context of scouting young players in the MiLB system for trades, etc., and international players in established leagues like Japan or KBO.  But yes, for high schoolers I would certainly rely more on things like OBP and K's for a hitter, K's and BB's for a pitcher, etc., than the "eye test."

What you are missing here is that scouts can see the talent that lies beneath meager stats. There are tons of factors that skew statistics, variables you just cannot consistently account for in high school. It isn’t like trackman or statcast is available at high school games either. 

Many kids get professional coaching and take off. I have seen professionally successful kids hit around .300 and strike out often here in a Florida high school in their senior year, but then be drafted high and become excellent prospects. I have seen many kids hit .450 and barely strike out, but they are not really pro prospects. Similar experience with pitchers.

Riley Green, for instance, has struggled when I have seen him against my son’s team. Now, we had 2 division 1 pitchers and a state championship last year and runner up this year to show for it. But Riley is widely considered a top 10 high school player for next year’s draft. He crushes higher end velocity on the national stage, but he may face a kid that throws 76-80 and a lot of junk in a high school game and struggle. Maybe he tried to do too much and swung at some pitches he shouldn't’ have. Maybe he had a hard time waiting on the slow stuff. Young hitters do things that professional coaching can help with. 

Some kids play two sports, so they have not dedicated themselves to baseball yet. Some kids have other things that preclude them from spending enough time polishing their game, like chasing girls. And some kids have character flaws, but great stats, and you’d never see that looking at stat sheets. 

Another thing is, who is keeping the stats? Scorekeeping is vastly subjective in high school. Have you seen the average high school infield? No comparison to most pro fields. So, defensive metrics mean nothing. 

Sorry, but you’re just wrong on this one, Ned. Stats can be a small part of the picture, sure. But to simply not have scouts evaluate a player with “the eye test,” we’ll thats just ill-fated at best.

[Frobby]

Also, I think anyone who reads this article will realize that the “eye test” applied by a scout is a lot different than you or me just going to a game and watching players.    They’re much more methodical and nuanced in what they’re looking for.    

[weams]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Also, I think anyone who reads this article will realize that the “eye test” applied by a scout is a lot different than you or me just going to a game and watching players.    They’re much more methodical and nuanced in what they’re looking for.    

The strictly analytic crowd tends to belittle the effort and results of watching. Even by skilled eyes.

That "The eye test lies" is a standard rhetoric.

Just like my denouncement of any evaluation effort that includes "so called" defensive metrics. Are there components that tell thing? Sure, do the numbers lie? Absolutely. 

[VaBird1]

Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini...

said by a man who war and defensive metrics love.  Also an ops+ of 114 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, VaBird1 said:

Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini...

Maybe, but I prefer the latter.