Mr Tango has me confused.

[25 Nuggets]

I'm not going to read too much into that until there are more data points.

[spiritof66]

If every pitcher threw the same way, and every batter hit the same way, so that the only variable was the way the defense shifted, these results would be extremely informative. How significant those results are when each event that produces a hit or an out is affected by variations other than differences in the fielders' angles is way beyond me. The results are interesting, though, and don't seem to defy logic or experience.

I think (but I'm not sure) the differences in pitching and hitting that affect each AB become less important as you have more data points, so that a chart like this with a million inputs would tell you more than one with 10,000 inputs. 

[Hallas]

12 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

If every pitcher threw the same way, and every batter hit the same way, so that the only variable was the way the defense shifted, these results would be extremely informative. How significant those results are when each event that produces a hit or an out is affected by variations other than differences in the fielders' angles is way beyond me. The results are interesting, though, and don't seem to defy logic or experience.

I think (but I'm not sure) the differences in pitching and hitting that affect each AB become less important as you have more data points, so that a chart like this with a million inputs would tell you more than one with 10,000 inputs. 

I've had to go over this a couple times, but I looks like it's only measuring the widest gap between infielders (or infielders + pitcher if you're counting him).    It's not telling you where the shift is occurring.  It says in general terms, don't shift such that you leave more than 29 degrees (or 34 degrees not including the pitcher) are exposed.  That amount of leeway gives defenses a huge amount of leeway to position for shifts, but it does make (semi) clear that there is a limit to how much you should expose the weak side when shifting.

[Ohfan67]

There's a lot of discussion about shifts with even the Commissioner talking about getting rid of them, but there's no real evidence they have affected scoring. Teams are scoring 4.45 runs per game this year, which is totally in line with the last ten or so years (basically since the Mitchell report and increased/improved PED testing). Some studies have found very mixed effects of the shift on hitting and scoring. For example: https://www.mlb.com/news/9-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-shift/c-276706888

 

The shift may be taking away some singles, but it's not really reducing runs scored. I'm really meh about shifts. 

[weams]

Yes, Mr. Tango has some other responses about this. I'll try to find and post. 

[weams]

 

 

[bobmc]

22 hours ago, SteveA said:

Extreme executive summary:

1) Shifting is good.  If all the infielders are close to evenly spaced, wOBA is .330 to .350.  if you start moving them in shifts to the point where the biggest gap between any two fieldera, or between a fielder and the line, is around 30 degrees, wOBA bottoms out around .320.

2) Extreme shifting is not so good.  When you start leaving a hole more than 34 degrees, wOBA by batters goes back up.  If the 3rd baseman is close to the 2B bag vs a lefty, that's almost a 45 degreed gap between 3rd base line and the closest fielder.  Similarly if the 1Bkan is holding vs a righty and the 2Bman is over by the 2B bat, the 1B/2B hole is about 40 degrees.  The chart suggests wOBA goes up to around .360 in these extreme shifts.  I assume the big oscillations are due to small sample size.

So shifting works but when you take it to extremes it stops working and starts hurting you 

 

Dang!  So this is why you earned your degree at VT?  Great work!    I hope that @DrungoHazewood is around also!

[weams]

SteveA is as smart as they come.