The O’s and the no. 4 draft spot

[Frobby]

Four times the O’s had the no. 4 pick in the draft.    Four times we picked a pitcher.    All four made the majors, but we (at least so far) have never struck gold with an ace.   But is it really that easy?

There have been 54 no. 4 picks, and 42 of them reached the majors.   Of the 12 who haven’t, four were the most recent, who we should probably ignore and give more time.   So, call it 42 of 50 through 2014.

Interestingly, in recent years the no. 4 pick has not done well.   Kevin Gausman (10.9 rWAR) ranks 15th in rWAR among the no. 4 picks, but of the 14 ahead of him, only two were drafted in this century (Gavin Floyd in 2001 and Ryan Zimmerman in 2005).    Dylan Bundy (5.3 rWAR) ranks 20th among no. 4 picks, but 4th among those drafted in this century.    Both are relatively young and could climb up to 11th overall (currently Ken Brett at 16.2) in the next several years.    Cracking the top 10 won’t be easy, as Mike Morgan holds that spot at 26.4.   

Our other no. 4’s were Brian Matusz (ranked 25th at 2.3 rWAR) and Adam Loewen (37th at -0.3).    Disappointing, but far from the worst on the list.

Bottom line, even a no. 4 pick has only about a 20% chance of being a 20 WAR player.    We didn’t do spectacularly with our no. 4 picks, but we did OK when you look at the overall history.   

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=4&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

[ArtVanDelay]

We took Jeffrey Hammonds #4. 

[weams]

4 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

We took Jeffrey Hammonds #4. 

Yes. Picks 1-3 are the way to go. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, ArtVanDelay said:

We took Jeffrey Hammonds #4. 

Good catch, and he ranks 17th overall among no. 4 picks at 8.6 rWAR.

Also, Gregg Olson was a no. 4, and ranks 13th with 12.9 rWAR.

So, we really haven’t done too badly in that spot. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

Yes. Picks 1-3 are the way to go. 

The drop off from 3 to 4 hasn’t been much.   The drop off from 4 to 5 is much bigger.

3rd: 42 major leaguers, 577 rWAR

4th: 42 major leaguers, 572 rWAR

5th: 31 major leaguers, 405 rWAR

6th has actually done much better than 5th, 38 major leaguers, 538 rWAR.

 

[TonySoprano]

Currently
BAL 37-88
KCR 38-87 1.0
CHW 47-77 10.5
SDP 49-78 11.0

At this point, 47 wins, and for sure, 49 wins, would be a stretch and the White Sox and Padres are already there.  It's an academic exercise at this point, the Orioles & Royals will end up  1-2 in some order.  As to having the #1 pick

 

[theocean]

Great post. 20 WAR is a lot, especially when looking at recent players because it does take players some time to accumulate the stats necessary.

To compare, the number of 20 WAR players from each pick since 1990. I'm only counting until 2015, so 26 total picks - as it'd be a bit unfair to grade young players who haven't even made it through the minors yet:

1st Overall: 10 Players, 38%

Bryce Harper (2010, 27.3 WAR), Stephen Strasburg (2009, 26.2 WAR), David Price (2007, 36.6 WAR), Justin Upton (2005, 34.8 WAR), Joe Mauer (2001, 54.7 WAR), Adrian Gonzalez (2000, 42.2 WAR), Josh Hamilton (1999, 28.3 WAR), Darin Ersatz (1995, 32.4 WAR), Alex Rodriguez (1993, 117.8 WAR), Chipper Jones (1990, 85.2 WAR).

2nd Overall: 6 Players, 23%

Kris Bryant (2013, 21 WAR), Alex Gordon (2005, 34.3 WAR), Justin Verlander (2004, 61.5 WAR), Josh Beckett (1999, 35.7 WAR), Mark Mulder (1998, 20.1 WAR), JD Drew (1997, 44.9 WAR), 

3rd Overall: 3 Players, 12%

Manny Machado (2010, 32.4 WAR), Evan Longoria (2006, 50.5 WAR), Troy Glaus (1997, 38 WAR)

4th Overall: 3 Players, 12%

Ryan Zimmerman (2005, 37.7 WAR), Kerry Wood (1995, 27.6 WAR), Alex Fernandez (1990, 28.6 WAR)

5th Overall: 5 Players, 19%

Buster Posey (2008, 40.7 WAR), Ryan Braun (2005, 45.7 WAR), Mark Teixeira (2001, 51.8 WAR), JD Drew (1998, 44.9 WAR), Vernon Wells (1997, 28.5 WAR)

6th Overall: 2 Players, 8%

Zach Greinke (2002, 65.2 WAR), Derek Jeter (1992, 72.4 WAR)

7th Overall:  5 Players, 19%

Clayton Kershaw (2006, 64.4 WAR), Troy Tulowitzki (2005, 44.1 WAR), Nick Markakis (2003, 33 WAR), Prince Fielder (2002, 23.6 WAR), Trot Nixon (1993, 21.3 WAR)

8th Overall: 2 Players, 8%

Francisco Lindor (2011, 22.9 WAR), Todd Helton (1995, 61.2 WAR)

9th Overall: 4 Players, 15%

John Danks (2003, 20.2 WAR), Barry Zito (1999, 32 WAR), Mark Kotsay (1996, 21.3 WAR), Geoff Jenkins (1995, 21.9 WAR)

10th Overall: 5 Players, 19%

Madison Bumgarner (2007, 33.5 WAR), Ben Sheets (1999, 23.3 WAR), Carlos Pena (1998, 22.5 WAR), Eric Chavez (1996, 37.5 WAR), Carl Everett (1990, 20.5 WAR)

 

 

 

[weams]

15 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Currently
BAL 37-88
KCR 38-87 1.0
CHW 47-77 10.5
SDP 49-78 11.0

At this point, 47 wins, and for sure, 49 wins, would be a stretch and the White Sox and Padres are already there.  It's an academic exercise at this point, the Orioles & Royals will end up  1-2 in some order.  As to having the #1 pick

 

There you go. 

[survivedc]

Is there any discernible reason some picks have ended up with more top value (over 20WAR) than others or is it just chance?

[tntoriole]

23 minutes ago, survivedc said:

Is there any discernible reason some picks have ended up with more top value (over 20WAR) than others or is it just chance?

Well, it seems that uncontrollable factors certainly have a great deal to do with it...however, some other things are also relevant.

First, if you are looking for hitting a big WAR career jackpot in the modern era, then playing in the Dominican international amateur free agent process would be probably a very good place to fish....consider that Adrian Beltre, 95.2 WAR, Pedro Martinez 84 WAR, Miguel Cabrera 69.3 WAR, Robinson Cano 67.8 WAR, David Ortiz 55.2 are just some top examples of staggeringly successful careers that started as teenage free agent signings through this route.    In the post above that listed the WARS of the top ten first round picks since 1990, only Alex Rodriguez is higher than these non drafted amateur free agent signings from the Dominican. 

 

Second,  first round picks probably do get you a better shot at hitting the really valuable player (although it is still a huge crapshoot)- Justin Verlander was the second overall pick and is at 61.5, Zack Greinke was a 6th overall pick at 65.2,  CC Sabathia was a 20th pick at 62 WAR,  etc. 

 

Thirdly,  nothing measures the combination of inner drive, luck,  that contributes to someone ultimately exceeding all expectations development-wise of a once in a lifetime star.   See Albert Pujols at 13th round pick with 100.2 WAR or Jeff Bagwell at 80 WAR from a 4th round pick, or even Mike Trout at 62 WAR with a 25th pick, or our own Cal Ripken who was a second round pick with 95.9 WAR.     So, on these, you are just on your own and probably the intuition of a scout is as good as all the statistical reports in the universe.  

 

So, we need to get and pick as many high picks as we can, play as aggressively in the international market as possible, be willing to throw a lot of chaff to the wind to find a kernel of wheat, and then pick our scouts very carefully and grade them accordingly.   A scout that picks a guy like a Pujols or a Trout?  Well, that guy gets to make a LOT of mistakes before I don't trust his intuition again.