2019+ Positional Review Series: Outfielders

[Greg Pappas]

In this thread series, I’m seeking to review our organization. It’s my hope that we can generate a lot of discussion about where we stand currently, and what the future may hold-- position-by-position.  Regarding minor leaguers, I’d like to keep the focus on players that are our better prospects, as well as those that have a reasonable chance to contribute at the major league level for years to come.  If I miss a player that you feel should be featured, please note it.  Also, if ANYONE wants to work on the remaining series thread (Starters) please shoot me a message. I'd be happy to get any help. Thanks. Lastly, I'll list each 'position' below and add links as they're completed.

2019+ Positional Review Series: Catcher
2019+ Positional Review Series: 1B/DH
2019+ Positional Review Series: 2B
2019+ Positional Review Series: SS
2019+ Positional Review Series: 3B
2019+ Positional Review Series: Outfielders / Nice write-ups from @Legend_Of_Joey 
2019+ Positional Review Series: Starters
2019+ Positional Review Series: Relievers / @Thato'sfan created this 

Let's get started on the Outfielders.

MLB:

• Cedric Mullins S/L 5'8-175, Age 23-326d
• Trey Mancini R/R 6'4-215, Age 26-158d
• John Andreoli R/R 6'1-210, Age 28-075d
• Joey Rickard R/L 6'1-185, Age 27-094d

Minors:

• Ryan Mountcastle (AA) [3B/1B/LF] R/R, 6'3-195, Age 21-186d
• DJ Stewart (AAA) L/R, 6'0-230, Age 24-266d
• Austin Hays (AA) R/R, 6'1-195, Age: 23-049d
• Yusniel Diaz (AA) R/R, 6'1-195, Age: 21-120d
• Ryan McKenna (AA) R/R, 5'11-185, Age: 20-213d

My initial thoughts (limited as they are): Mullins has played quite well since his ML debut, providing solid defense in CF, excellent speed, and a spark at the plate. If he can hit and get on base at a solid clip, he'll be our future lead-off man and CF for years to come.  Outside of Mullins, the LF and RF spots are less secure. Mancini, in my view, will eventually drop out the OF equation, as soon as 2019.  However, if he remains as our LF, I suspect he'll be pushed for playing time or outright outplayed by a younger prospect by the end of 2019/early 2020. He could factor in at 1B/DH if the O's resolve the Chris Davis matter. Andreoli (28) and Rickard (27) seem relegated to 4th/5th OF'ers types.

Thanks to @Legend_Of_Joey for contributing the following five write-ups (italicized):

Ryan Mountcastle: Starting things off with a bang! After missing part of the beginning of the season due to a broken hamate bone, he came back to tune of a .298 average, .348 on base percentage, .477 slugging, and .825 OPS, with 12 home runs, 4 triples, and 17 doubles. Took a few more walks this year too, with 26 (plus 2 intentional walks), and 68 strike outs (career low in a full season.) His bat hasn't been a problem. Here is what has been the issue: In 72 games, he has 14 errors in 160 chances (.913 fielding percentage.) The majority of them have been from his throws. During Spring Training, he was actually taking fly balls on the outfield on the back fields. So, the Orioles were testing him a bit in the outfield but didn't make the move yet. With his bat, Mountcastle will get as much of a shot as possible, but might be destined for the outfield, as there are quite a few players at firstbase right now. The main question though will be his arm, as he does not have another defensive trait (speed, elite tracking ability, ect) to mask such a flaw on defense.

D.J. Stewart: The most maligned outfielder in the system right now. Struggling at first with his hitting, he did pretty well the last few seasons, including being the first 20-20 players (home runs/steals) in Baysox history. Well, welcome to Norfolk. In the "pitcher friendly" Harbor Park as his home place, Stewart is hitting .239 with a .341 OBP and /378 SLG, with a .719 OPS. His hitting is actually WORSE in away games, with a .224 average, .320 OBP, and .713 OPS. His slugging (.393) is actually better on the road (8 home runs on the road vs. 4 at home will help.) Now for his defense, he has 6 errors this season and has played all 3 spots. The majority of his errors (5) came in right field, where he has not played consistently before this season (played all of 4 games in right in Bowie.) There are questions about his arm and his route running, none of which have been calmed during this season. Once a nearly "sure fire" September call up, Stewart is now relegated to "well, he will be on the 40 this fall" and given a look during the spring.

Austin Hays: Yes, he DOES exist! In what is basically a lost season due to various injuries that started in Spring Training, Hays has tried to make the best of his time since returning from a cyst in his ankle. He might still be shaking off some rust and his numbers encompass the whole season, so take it for what it is worth. Out of 54 hits, 18 of them have been for extra bases (8 doubles, 2 triples, 8 home runs), so he is barreling up the ball pretty well. You can't dismiss him right now (especially seeing how hurt he really was), but you can be guarded and see what he brings in 2019 during the spring, especially if he has a healthy campaign. Still has the speed and arm to play all 3 outfield spots, which at the very least, could get him a mid season shot in 2019 with the positional flexibility.

Yusniel Diaz: The "Man Who Hits 3 Run Home Runs" (I don't think Orioles fans want to yell out "Juice!" when he comes up with Manfred in office...) Diaz came over in the Machado trade. Diaz was off to a really slow start but has picked things up a little bit. Not known much for his power, he has walloped 4 for Bowie in about a month. An International signee for the Dodgers, he was considered to have a plus hit tool and changed his swing last season to get more power into it. Not considered fast, he mainly is a corner outfielder with a very strong arm. He can still misread balls and has above average range. Main issue is the depth the Orioles have right now in the outfield prospects. His hit tool should really help though.

Ryan McKenna: How maniacal was McKenna at Frederick? At the time of his promotion in halfway thru June, he had a .377 (!) average, with a 1.023 OPS! Almost even on walks (37 plus 2 IBB) vs strike outs (45), McKenna was able to put the bat on the ball. Not much on the base paths (5 out of 11), and only 28 extra bases on 97 hits (18 doubles, 2 triples, 8 home runs.) After a rough start in Bowie, he has brought his average and OPS up (.246 and .689 respectively), taking 23 walks while having 50 strike outs. The change was a bit of an adjustment, but at 21, there shouldn't be a concern. Has played only centerfield, except for 3 games this season. Average skills for center, but with Mullins in Baltimore, he might want to start learning what it is like being closer to the foul pole.

 

... Honorable Mentions (either AAAA types or guys that appear to be longshots at this time to be contributors): Anthony Santander, Mike Yastrzemski, Jacob Brugman, Zach Jarrett, and Robert Neustrom.  

Overall, I'm of the opinion that we may have our future CF already up with the club, in Mullins, and some solid prospects that should begin to push for their spot, as soon as 2019.  Neither may be ready by 2019, but if Hays and Diaz are the real deal, we could eventually have a solid and potentially dynamic young outfield for years to come.  Mountcastle is a wildcard, but even if he is tried in LF, he may be better served at 1B or (gulp!) DH.  What does the future hold?  The crystal baseball is partly cloudy. Thoughts?

[jamalshw]

I like the depth we have in the OF. It's really the one area I'm not concerned about filling (along with 1B/DH). I would love to see an OF of Diaz/Mullins/Hays by season's end with Mancini and Mountcastle getting the ABs at 1B and DH (though I doubt we'd drop Davis even by this time next year). I really think Mountcastle ends up playing on the dirt. They're going to give him all the chance in the world to stick at 3B. Perhaps he can do 2B? If not, then 1B. With all the OF depth, I don't think he's needed out there. Of course, he's not really needed at 1B either unless we can clear out the dead weight.

[Greg Pappas]

4 hours ago, jamalshw said:

I like the depth we have in the OF. It's really the one area I'm not concerned about filling (along with 1B/DH). I would love to see an OF of Diaz/Mullins/Hays by season's end with Mancini and Mountcastle getting the ABs at 1B and DH (though I doubt we'd drop Davis even by this time next year). I really think Mountcastle ends up playing on the dirt. They're going to give him all the chance in the world to stick at 3B. Perhaps he can do 2B? If not, then 1B. With all the OF depth, I don't think he's needed out there. Of course, he's not really needed at 1B either unless we can clear out the dead weight.

Ideally we'd like to avoid having a defensive weakness. Unfortunately Mountcastle doesn't profile as a strong defender anywhere.  While unlikely, it's still possible that Mountcastle sticks at third, but your idea of him switching to an even more demanding defensive position at 2B is probably far-fetched. LF is another possibility, but an eventual move to 1B is the likeliest outcome to me. When/if that'll happen is anyone's guess, as that cannot play out until the O's drop Chris Davis-- or relegate him to DH or the bench. 

[ChosenOne21]

I think Luke said Mountcastle could be above average defensively at first base, but that's the only position where that's true

[scbalt52]

I'm still pretty high on Santander.

[tntoriole]

I thought Adam was going to be playing RF.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, tntoriole said:

I thought Adam was going to be playing RF.  

He's not very rangy and his arm really isn't suited to right.

[Greg Pappas]

32 minutes ago, scbalt52 said:

I'm still pretty high on Santander.

Yeah, Santander is an interesting guy.  He isn't showing what he needs to at AA (.695 OPS), and at nearly 24-years old, that level shouldn't be too difficult. That's not to say that he can't rebound and play much better down the stretch and into next season, but for now I'd say he's a bit of a longshot to be a quality ML contributor. 

[bobmc]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's not very rangy and his arm really isn't suited to right.

What is it "suited for", SS?  La Gente

[sportsfan8703]

I’d like to see a Diaz, Mullins, Hays OF in September. Throw em out there and see what happens. 

[Ruzious]

Thing about Mountcastle is - the O's need to make a decision.  They can't wait till next season starts and decide you're going to play LF.  They need to have him working this offseason if they want him changing positions.  For next year, defense has to be a priority, so their pitchers are given a chance to develop.  But he's really their only likely legit future middle of the lineup hitter, so they need to develop him defensively for the majors.  

Really, the depth is not exceptional - it's what it should be since we're going to rebuild.  We're still not sure what we have in Hays, Diaz, and McKenna.  I'd bet on McKenna over Hays and Diaz, but he's likely at least a year away.  A real positive is that they all seem to be good defensively. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Thing about Mountcastle is - the O's need to make a decision.  They can't wait till next season starts and decide you're going to play LF.  They need to have him working this offseason if they want him changing positions.  For next year, defense has to be a priority, so their pitchers are given a chance to develop.  But he's really their only likely legit future middle of the lineup hitter, so they need to develop him defensively for the majors.  

What pitchers are you thinking about developing at the ML level next year?

I figured they were going to fill out the staff with warm bodies since I don't see much in the minors that I want starting in 2019.

[Ruzious]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

What pitchers are you thinking about developing at the ML level next year?

I figured they were going to fill out the staff with warm bodies since I don't see much in the minors that I want starting in 2019.

They better not be signing any old veterans for next year.  Right?

Not necessarily starting in April, but at some point during the year, we could have folks like Ortiz, Akin, Tate, Kremer, Zimmerman, Hess, and I'd like to see Castro be given a chance.  And relievers need defense too - like Cody Carroll, Zack Pop, Branden Kline, Paul Fry, and Tanner Scott.      

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

They better not be signing any old veterans for next year.  Right?

Not necessarily starting in April, but at some point during the year, we could have folks like Ortiz, Akin, Tate, Kremer, Zimmerman, Hess, and I'd like to see Castro be given a chance.  And relievers need defense too - like Cody Carroll, Zack Pop, Branden Kline, Paul Fry, and Tanner Scott.      

I'd love if they waited until they thought the guys were ready for a change.  This franchise has a tendency to rush pitchers and I think that is part of the problem they have developing them into quality major leaguers.  Just look what they did to Gausman.  Ideally he would have had a third pitch before he hit the majors.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, scbalt52 said:

I'm still pretty high on Santander.

He’s 23. He’s only had over 300 AB’s twice in any one year. He probably just needs ABs and to be healthy.