The early returns from the four deadline deals

[Frobby]

With the minor league season concluded, this is a good time to look at the early returns on the four deals we made at the deadline.

The Manny Machado Trade

Yusniel Diaz -- the most coveted player we received in any of the trades, Diaz was batting .314/.428/.477 in the AA Texas League when we acquired him.    He hit .239/.329/.403 for Bowie.

Dean Kremer -- when we obtained him, Kremer was doing well in A+ ball, 3.30 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 13.0 K/9.    We promoted him to AA and he responded well, 2.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 10.5 K/0.

Zach Pop -- a fast mover, Pop already had been promoted from low A to A+ before the trade, posting a 0.33 ERA, 0.70 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 at the latter stop.   We gave him a further promotion and he posted a 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 7.2 K/9 at AA Bowie.

Rylan Bannon -- in A+, he posted .296/.402/.559 before the trade.    He was placed at AA Bowie and struggled a bit, hitting .204/.344/.327.   He was better towards the end of the season.

Breyvic Valera -- hit .284/.350/.433 in the AAA PCL, and after the trade hit .229/.310/.364 in the International League.    He's now in Baltimore.

The Zach Britton Trade

Dillon Tate -- posted a 3.38 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 for the Yankees' Eastern League team; for Bowie, he posted a 5.75 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 4.6 K/9.   He had a very high GB ratio after the trade and presumably was focusing on his 2-seamer.

Cody Carroll -- before the trade, he had a 2.38 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 11.9 K/9 in AAA.   Afterwards, he had a 5.79 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 5.8 K/9 in very limited work in Norfolk, while also spending time in the majors and struggling there.

Josh Rogers -- had a 3.95 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 in AAA before the trade; 2.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 5.3 K/9 for Norfolk.   He has made two starts for the Orioles with moderate success so far.

The Jonathan Schoop Trade

Jonathan Villar -- .261/.315/.377 with the Brewers; .266/.333/.427 so far with the O's.

Luis Ortiz -- 3.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in AA before the trade; 3.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 for AAA Norfolk after the trade.   Now called up to the Orioles.

Jean Carmona -- .239/.298/.406 in the Appalachian League before the trade; promoted to the NY-Penn League where he hit .226/.280/.301 for Aberdeen.   Still only 18 years old.

The Kevin Gausman Trade

Jean Carlos Encarnacion -- hit .288/.314/.463 for Atlanta's Sally League affiliate.    After the trade, he hit .218/.240/.356 for Delmarva, also in the Sally League.

Brett Cumberland -- hit .236/.307/.407 in A+ ball before the trade.   Promoted to Bowie, he hit .190/.292/.405.

Bruce Zimmerman -- a few weeks before the trade, he was promoted from the Sally League directly to the Eastern League and had a 3.14 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 for Atlanta's affiliate.    In Bowie, he had a 5.06 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 6.8 K/9.

Evan Phillips -- before the trade, he had a 1.99 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 13.1 K/9 in AAA.   Afterwards, he had a 3.38 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 11.0 K/9 at Norfolk.   He also has had 4 major league appearances with both teams, and wasn't very effective for either team.

 

Overall, I'd say the players we acquired have underperformed a bit since we acquired them.   Since we are only talking about 5-7 weeks of performance, I'm not getting too worked up about it.    The only one that worries me a bit is Dillon Tate, who seemingly changed his approach after the trade and got significantly worse results.    Kremer, Pop and Ortiz all showed very nicely following promotions, and Villar has done a good job at the major league level.   I'd say if you didn't like the Braves trade when it was made, there's nothing that's happened with the guys we acquired that would change your mind.   In any event, we'll see what happens with this group next year.

[baltfan]

Wow the Gausman trade looks awful.  Everything else is fine.

[Luke-OH]

Some notes on mechanical or pitch mix changes the Orioles have made with these players after they were acquired.

Jean Carlos Encarnacion had adopted a closed stance at the plate after the first month of the season, after being acquired by the Orioles he abandoned this and went back to a neutral stance and striding open. 

Cody Carroll began throwing a splitter (he had a changeup before, not sure if it was a splitter, but he hadn't been throwing it this year).

Jean Carmona's pre-swing hand motion was reduced greatly.

Dillon Tate (as Frobby mentioned) after one start with Bowie, shifted to throwing a 2S FB as his primary FB as opposed to a pitch he threw infrequently before being acquired.

Dean Kremer is still primarily FB/CB, but he's been throwing his changeup more and it has looked better. Slider usage has been reduced.

Yusniel Diaz shifted his back foot position at the plate, closing it off some, probably a first step to try and get rid of the movement of the rear foot during his swing. 

[jamalshw]

Based solely on those small sample sizes, the Brewers and Dodgers trades are looking better to me. I have some hope for Bannon after he started heating up later in the year and like what Kramer and Pop have done. On the Brewers side, Ortiz adjusted fine to Triple-A though his K rate was down. Villar has been much better than I expected.

I'm a bit higher on both the Brewers and Dodgers deals, but lower on the other two (which is particularly bad in the Gausman case).

[Luke-OH]

14 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

Based solely on those small sample sizes, the Brewers and Dodgers trades are looking better to me. I have some hope for Bannon after he started heating up later in the year and like what Kramer and Pop have done. On the Brewers side, Ortiz adjusted fine to Triple-A though his K rate was down. Villar has been much better than I expected.

I'm a bit higher on both the Brewers and Dodgers deals, but lower on the other two (which is particularly bad in the Gausman case).

Bannon walked (18% BB rate!) practically as much as he struck out in his first taste of AA, there were some contact quality issues, but I'm not discouraged. The bat for Bannon only needs to be ok for him to profile as a regular. 

Cumberland who I'm not particularly high on, posted close to a .700 OPS despite a .185 BABIP. Cumberland is a low BABIP type (FB heavy batted ball profile, not much speed), but .185 is definitely bad luck, regardless of batted ball profile. 

[Tx Oriole]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

With the minor league season concluded, this is a good time to look at the early returns on the four deals we made at the deadline.

The Manny Machado Trade

Yusniel Diaz -- the most coveted player we received in any of the trades, Diaz was batting .314/.428/.477 in the AA Texas League when we acquired him.    He hit .239/.329/.403 for Bowie.

Dean Kremer -- when we obtained him, Kremer was doing well in A+ ball, 3.30 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 13.0 K/9.    We promoted him to AA and he responded well, 2.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 10.5 K/0.

Zach Pop -- a fast mover, Pop already had been promoted from low A to A+ before the trade, posting a 0.33 ERA, 0.70 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 at the latter stop.   We gave him a further promotion and he posted a 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 7.2 K/9 at AA Bowie.

Rylan Bannon -- in A+, he posted .296/.402/.559 before the trade.    He was placed at AA Bowie and struggled a bit, hitting .204/.344/.327.   He was better towards the end of the season.

Breyvic Valera -- hit .284/.350/.433 in the AAA PCL, and after the trade hit .229/.310/.364 in the International League.    He's now in Baltimore.

The Zach Britton Trade

Dillon Tate -- posted a 3.38 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 for the Yankees' Eastern League team; for Bowie, he posted a 5.75 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 4.6 K/9.   He had a very high GB ratio after the trade and presumably was focusing on his 2-seamer.

Cody Carroll -- before the trade, he had a 2.38 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 11.9 K/9 in AAA.   Afterwards, he had a 5.79 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 5.8 K/9 in very limited work in Norfolk, while also spending time in the majors and struggling there.

Josh Rogers -- had a 3.95 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 in AAA before the trade; 2.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 5.3 K/9 for Norfolk.   He has made two starts for the Orioles with moderate success so far.

The Jonathan Schoop Trade

Jonathan Villar -- .261/.315/.377 with the Brewers; .266/.333/.427 so far with the O's.

Luis Ortiz -- 3.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in AA before the trade; 3.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 for AAA Norfolk after the trade.   Now called up to the Orioles.

Jean Carmona -- .239/.298/.406 in the Appalachian League before the trade; promoted to the NY-Penn League where he hit .226/.280/.301 for Aberdeen.   Still only 18 years old.

The Kevin Gausman Trade

Jean Carlos Encarnacion -- hit .288/.314/.463 for Atlanta's Sally League affiliate.    After the trade, he hit .218/.240/.356 for Delmarva, also in the Sally League.

Brett Cumberland -- hit .236/.307/.407 in A+ ball before the trade.   Promoted to Bowie, he hit .190/.292/.405.

Bruce Zimmerman -- a few weeks before the trade, he was promoted from the Sally League directly to the Eastern League and had a 3.14 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 for Atlanta's affiliate.    In Bowie, he had a 5.06 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 6.8 K/9.

Evan Phillips -- before the trade, he had a 1.99 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 13.1 K/9 in AAA.   Afterwards, he had a 3.38 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 11.0 K/9 at Norfolk.   He also has had 4 major league appearances with both teams, and wasn't very effective for either team.

 

Overall, I'd say the players we acquired have underperformed a bit since we acquired them.   Since we are only talking about 5-7 weeks of performance, I'm not getting too worked up about it.    The only one that worries me a bit is Dillon Tate, who seemingly changed his approach after the trade and got significantly worse results.    Kremer, Pop and Ortiz all showed very nicely following promotions, and Villar has done a good job at the major league level.   I'd say if you didn't like the Braves trade when it was made, there's nothing that's happened with the guys we acquired that would change your mind.   In any event, we'll see what happens with this group next year.

Well maybe so but I still like the Kevin G. trade. He couldn't have stayed in Baltimore and been successful. IMO 

[Moose Milligan]

My expert analysis on this:

-Diaz hasn't performed well but there's still a good separation between batting average and on base percentage.  

-Not sure why Kremer doesn't get more hype, looks to be one of the better pieces.  

-Pop is poppin.  Eh? Yeah?  Anyone?  C'mon.

-Bannon, still good separation between batting average and on base percentage.

-Villar will be a leader on this team for the next 2-3 seasons.

-Dillon Tate needs to get it together next year. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

My expert analysis on this:

-Diaz hasn't performed well but there's still a good separation between batting average and on base percentage.  

-Not sure why Kremer doesn't get more hype, looks to be one of the better pieces.  

-Pop is poppin.  Eh? Yeah?  Anyone?  C'mon.

-Bannon, still good separation between batting average and on base percentage.

-Villar will be a leader on this team for the next 2-3 seasons.

-Dillon Tate needs to get it together next year. 

Power up but K/BB ratio is worse.  I think he's adapting to the Oriole Way.

[Moose Milligan]

45 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

Well maybe so but I still like the Kevin G. trade. He couldn't have stayed in Baltimore and been successful. IMO 

100%.

[sportsfan8703]

21 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

My expert analysis on this:

-Diaz hasn't performed well but there's still a good separation between batting average and on base percentage.  

-Not sure why Kremer doesn't get more hype, looks to be one of the better pieces.  

-Pop is poppin.  Eh? Yeah?  Anyone?  C'mon.

-Bannon, still good separation between batting average and on base percentage.

-Villar will be a leader on this team for the next 2-3 seasons.

-Dillon Tate needs to get it together next year. 

Big strikeout numbers for Kremer too. There is an argument to be made that he’s in our top 3 SP prospects. 

[weams]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Big strikeout numbers for Kremer too. There is an argument to be made that he’s in our top 3 SPs. 

I might go there. 

[Luke-OH]

11 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Big strikeout numbers for Kremer too. There is an argument to be made that he’s in our top 3 SP prospects. 

Yeah, that's a fair argument, I only have one pitcher a tier above Kremer and that's DL Hall. Then you could reasonably argue pretty much any order of Ortiz, Kremer, Harvey, Rodriguez, Hanifee, Lowther, Tate, and Akin.

[Greg Pappas]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, that's a fair argument, I only have one pitcher a tier above Kremer and that's DL Hall. Then you could reasonably argue pretty much any order of Ortiz, Kremer, Harvey, Rodriguez, Hanifee, Lowther, Tate, and Akin.

If you don't mind my asking, can you share your tiers?

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, that's a fair argument, I only have one pitcher a tier above Kremer and that's DL Hall. Then you could reasonably argue pretty much any order of Ortiz, Kremer, Harvey, Rodriguez, Hanifee, Lowther, Tate, and Akin.

Having 8 of those guys is good.   I just wish we had 1-2 more Hall-level prospects.   

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Greg Pappas said:

If you don't mind my asking, can you share your tiers?

I already did, in my midseason prospect list in the form of FV grades, I haven't changed any FV grades yet, although that may come once I get back into some video study.