The early returns from the four deadline deals

[Greg Pappas]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I already did, in my midseason prospect list in the form of FV grades, I haven't changed any FV grades yet, although that may come once I get back into some video study. 

Ah, right. Thanks. For those (like me) who'd like to take a look at it, here's the link to Luke's prospect list>> http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/08/25/lukes-midseason-top-50-adding-the-prospects-from-the-gausman-schoop-deals/

[Luke-OH]

Another point, I don't shift FV grades lightly.

A half season of good or bad performance doesn't do it for me unless it shows something that changes the overall profile of the player at maturity. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Another point, I don't shift FV grades lightly.

A half season of good or bad performance doesn't do it for me unless it shows something that changes the overall profile of the player at maturity. 

Would what Adam Hall did in the second half qualify?

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Would what Adam Hall did in the second half qualify?

It would have if I hadn't of been high on him in the first place. His second half just showed the hit tool that I already gave him credit for when he was struggling. 

[sportsfan8703]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Having 8 of those guys is good.   I just wish we had 1-2 more Hall-level prospects.   

We have Harvey, but he’s always hurt. Rodriguez had about as good as a debut as we could’ve hoped for. We’re going to have the #1 pick in the draft, plus 4 picks in the top 100. But I see what you’re saying. We have,

Hall, Harvey(IF healthy)

Rodriguez, Akin, Kremer, Ortiz, Tate, Hanifee

Mad have good depth now. Now we need the high end types.  We don’t have any trade chips left that would fetch that, so it looks like the draft is how we can try for that  

 

[Greg Pappas]

Just read this review from CamdenChat on the return we got in the Machado deal (with Diaz's review coming later.) 

[Aristotelian]

I am getting very excited about Kremer. Very excited.

[Matt Bennett]

On 9/5/2018 at 5:32 PM, Moose Milligan said:

My expert analysis on this:

-Diaz hasn't performed well but there's still a good separation between batting average and on base percentage.  

-Not sure why Kremer doesn't get more hype, looks to be one of the better pieces.  

-Pop is poppin.  Eh? Yeah?  Anyone?  C'mon.

-Bannon, still good separation between batting average and on base percentage.

-Villar will be a leader on this team for the next 2-3 seasons.

-Dillon Tate needs to get it together next year. 

Any reason why you think Jonathan Villar should stay on the team and not be flipped?  With a contract that expires after the 2020 season, he will not be on the next good Orioles team barring an extension. At that point he'll be into his 30's, and I don't think you really want to extend someone into their 30's who primary asset is speed.

In my opinion, Villar and Schoop's profiles look very similar. Both struggled mightily at the plate at the beginning of their career before finding themselves and breaking out (Villar in 2016, Schoop in 2017...both their age 25 seasons.) They've since regressed and those breakout all-starish type seasons look like outliers. Yet they are still solid second basemen. Yes Schoop was only one year removed from his breakout season when traded, but Villar has an extra year of control than Schoop had when traded.

Look what Schoop's return in the trade. You would trade a package similar to that for...what? A few more wins in another last place season and some veteran leadership?

[bobmc]

53 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I am getting very excited about Kremer. Very excited.

More chatter from Camden Chat re: Kremer (shown below in Team Israel duds) et al from Machado trade:

"In eight starts with the Baysox, Kremer thrived. His strikeouts dropped a bit from his high-A numbers with the Quakes, but averaging 10 K/9 is nothing to sneeze at. He walked 17 batters in 45.1 innings, which is a little high, but 2-3 walks per game isn’t going to kill you when you’re striking out a good number and not getting hit around the park. He finished his season at Bowie with a 2.58 ERA and 3.04 FIP. 

At the time of the trade, Kremer was ranked as the 28th best prospect in LA’s system. He is currently ranked 16th for the Orioles. A lot of that is because the Dodgers have a stronger minor league system than the Orioles, but Kremer has also seen his stock rise since being traded. In their trade deadline wrap up, FanGraphs noted that Kremer “[t]hrows 92-95, touches 97, above-average curveball, average change. If pitchability improves, he’s a back-end starter. If not, solid relief option.” 

It’s very early, but it’s looking possible that Kremer could meet those expectations from FanGraphs. Kremer is almost 2 ¹⁄₂ years younger than the average player in Bowie’s Eastern League and the second youngest pitcher on the team to fellow tradee Zach Pop. If he can go on to put up a full season like the eight starts he had for Bowie this year, I might say that he could exceed expectations. For now it’s too soon to tell."

https://www.camdenchat.com/2018/9/7/17818290/orioles-prospects-dean-kremer-rylan-bannon-zach-pop-2018-dodgers-machado

[ChrisP]

23 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Any reason why you think Jonathan Villar should stay on the team and not be flipped?

Good point. I'm interested in others thoughts on this as well. His trade value was low, but he's done well since the trade. I hope they would field offers for him.

[bobmc]

2 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

Just read this review from CamdenChat on the return we got in the Machado deal (with Diaz's review coming later.) 

I missed this when I posted my blather below yours.  This was a nice writeup.

[Moose Milligan]

42 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Any reason why you think Jonathan Villar should stay on the team and not be flipped?  With a contract that expires after the 2020 season, he will not be on the next good Orioles team barring an extension. At that point he'll be into his 30's, and I don't think you really want to extend someone into their 30's who primary asset is speed.

In my opinion, Villar and Schoop's profiles look very similar. Both struggled mightily at the plate at the beginning of their career before finding themselves and breaking out (Villar in 2016, Schoop in 2017...both their age 25 seasons.) They've since regressed and those breakout all-starish type seasons look like outliers. Yet they are still solid second basemen. Yes Schoop was only one year removed from his breakout season when traded, but Villar has an extra year of control than Schoop had when traded.

Look what Schoop's return in the trade. You would trade a package similar to that for...what? A few more wins in another last place season and some veteran leadership?

Sure.  I mean, everyone should be tradeable.  But you said it yourself, his contract expires after the 2020 season.  I said he'd be good for the next 2-3 years.  Glad you agree with me  

[MachoMachadoMan]

16 minutes ago, ChrisP said:

Good point. I'm interested in others thoughts on this as well. His trade value was low, but he's done well since the trade. I hope they would field offers for him.

I think this is completely dependent on how he does next season. I don't think anyone will give you something worth moving him for this offseason. If he returns to 2016 form, then I would absolutely move him at the deadline to a team seeking a tablesetter who can be disruptive on the bases. 

[bobmc]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Sure.  I mean, everyone should be tradeable.  But you said it yourself, his contract expires after the 2020 season.  I said he'd be good for the next 2-3 years.  Glad you agree with me  

Cheap, flexible, exciting to watch and expendable once Jean Carlos Encarnacion blows up!

[Matt Bennett]

2 minutes ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

I think this is completely dependent on how he does next season. I don't think anyone will give you something worth moving him for this offseason. If he returns to 2016 form, then I would absolutely move him at the deadline to a team seeking a tablesetter who can be disruptive on the bases. 

Look at the package Schoop delivered us. He produced 1.3 WAR in 85 games (with a contract expiration after 2019) when traded. Villar has produced 2.5 WAR in 119 games (with a contract expiration after 2020). Per baseball reference. Yes Schoop was more recently removed from his breakout season than Villar but you also get another year of control under Villar. There won't be teams this off-season looking to contend that have a hole at 2B that Villar would plug and then some? How many free agent second basemen project to be better than Villar over the next two seasons? 37 year old Ian Kinsler? 35 year old Jed Lowrie? DJ Lemahiu away from Coors Field? I wouldn't really call Daniel Murphy a 2B anymore. Dozier had a very down year.