Astros Parallels - Salary

[Camden_yardbird]

A lot of people have been drawing the obvious parallels between how the Astros rebuilt and how they expect the Orioles to rebuild.  I think its expected that we will see similarities.  Scrolling through MLBTR.com today I noticed their post about the Astros' payroll for the last few years.   What caught my eye was the following chart, and more specifically that since the Astros' payroll bottomed out in 2013 they have consistently added $22 to $25 million dollars a year since.  My question is, do you think the Orioles will be willing to commit that level of resources to a rebuild?  I think that is what it will take honestly to compete with the rest of the AL east.  At the same time I think we are seeing a fundamental shift in free agency that may change that payroll model.  Just another parallel I think it is worth watching over the next few years as the Orioles payroll bottoms out and then begins to expand.

 

[Frobby]

My view is, the Astros are spending the money they didn’t spend in 2012-15 while they were waiting for their young talent to mature.    So yes, I expect the Orioles to do the same if and when their team is primed to compete.   

Actually, the O’s sort of did that the last few years.    Peter spent a lot more money once the team made the playoffs in ‘12.    They were ready to compete so he stepped it up.    Unfortunately, it didn’t work the last two years so now it’s time to ramp back down.   

[wildcard]

Yes, once the O's bottom out the payroll at under 50m in 2020 they will start to spend.  But not on Free Agents.  Not if they follow the Astros model.   They will spend on keep their first round draft choices and they will trade for players that will help the rebuild.   The will trade some of their other  draft choices and international signings.

The Astro's World Series team was built like this:  Only (4) draft choices, (1) Latin signing,  (4 )free agents,  (10) player acquire by trade, (3) waiver claims(3) players acquired before Luhnow and Elias.  The free agent were Gregerson, Morton, Reddick and Beltran.   Not huge contracts.

I can break in down further if you want to read it.

The O's went to 170m to hold they team together the was built from 2012-2017.   I see no reason  why they  would not do it again in the rebuild

[sportsfan8703]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Yes, once the O's bottom out the payroll at under 50m in 2020 they will start to spend.  But not on Free Agents.  Not if they follow the Astros model.   They will spend on keep their first round draft choices and they will trade for players that will help the rebuild.   The will trade some of their other  draft choices and international signings.

The Astro's World Series team was built like this:  Only (4) draft choices, (1) Latin signing,  (4 )free agents,  (10) player acquire by trade, (3) waiver claims(3) players acquired before Luhnow and Elias.  The free agent were Gregerson, Morton, Reddick and Beltran.   Not huge contracts.

I can break in down further if you want to read it.

The O's went to 170m to hold they team together the was built from 2012-2017.   I see no reason  why they  would not do it again in the rebuild

The Astros did a good job of using prospects as currency to acquire established, known quantities, to surround their home grown stars.  The thing I worry about is our farm system has been a running joke to baseball people for 20 years. That stigma might hurt our prospects perceived value if we try to use them as currency. 

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The Astros did a good job of using prospects as currency to acquire established, known quantities, to surround their home grown stars.  The thing I worry about is our farm system has been a running joke to baseball people for 20 years. That stigma might hurt our prospects perceived value if we try to use them as currency. 

The main problem with the O's farm system is the lack of impact  players.   The O's will probably add Adley Rutschman  in July.   That will move the O's up quite a bit.   And they may be drafting in the top five for two to three more years.  That should change the perception of the O's farm system to one on the top systems in baseball.   Elias will also begin signing international prospects.  Its what he did in Houston and what he will do here.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

The main problem with the O's farm system is the lack of impact  players.   The O's will probably add Adley Rutschman  in July.   That will move the O's up quite a bit.   And they may be drafting in the top five for two to three more years.  That should change the perception of the O's farm system to one on the top systems in baseball.   Elias will also begin signing international prospects.  Its what he did in Houston and what he will do here.

Also with Davis on the roster along with Cobb, it will be hard to go true bare bones on payroll.  At least Trumbo is off the books after this year.   

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Also with Davis on the roster along with Cobb, it will be hard to go true bare bones on payroll.  At least Trumbo is off the books after this year.   

If Cobb has a average season and matches his 3.75 career ERA he is be traded at the July deadline.

[weams]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

The main problem with the O's farm system is the lack of impact  players.   The O's will probably add Adley Rutschman  in July.   That will move the O's up quite a bit.   And they may be drafting in the top five for two to three more years.  That should change the perception of the O's farm system to one on the top systems in baseball.   Elias will also begin signing international prospects.  Its what he did in Houston and what he will do here.

Os farm system was not a running joke with Manny, Wieters and Arrieta, Britton.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

Os farm system was not a running joke with Manny, Wieters and Arrieta, Britton.

How long ago was that?

[weams]

A cycle. Not 20 years. 

[weams]

2 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Also with Davis on the roster along with Cobb, it will be hard to go true bare bones on payroll.  At least Trumbo is off the books after this year.   

With Davis on the books they can go straight 700 k if they like and still not run afoul. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

42 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If Cobb has a average season and matches his 3.75 career ERA he is be traded at the July deadline.

That is exactly what I’m hoping will happen.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

10 minutes ago, weams said:

With Davis on the books they can go straight 700 k if they like and still not run afoul. 

I’m very interested in seeing how Elias manages the roster the next two seasons.