Trout, 12/430

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, esmd said:

And how long was his contract?  And how many years ago was that?

recently enough that the contract is not an albatross.

2016, he still had 31 HRs, 119 RBIs and a OPS of ,.780.

[esmd]

I think it's a VERY risky deal in that they're banking (as as the Padres with Manny and the Phillies with Harper) that he'll continue his level of production without a major dropoff.  Personally, I think that's a dubious strategy.

Tough to say it's a bad deal or a good deal right now - just risky.  Very, very risky.

[esmd]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

recently enough that the contract is not an albatross.

2016, he still had 31 HRs, 119 RBIs and a OPS of ,.780.

Come on.  He's had 3 good years out of 7, with 3 more years to go.  Last year he had .5 WAR, the year before that he was negative.  They'll be lucky if he's replacement value for the next 3 years at $25-$30M per season.

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, esmd said:

Problem, is, wouldn't that only come into play if he has a career ending injury and never plays again (like Albert Belle?).  What if he gets hurt, but only to the point where he can play, but just to the point where he's a diminished version of his current output?  Like a Chris Tillman situation, which I realize is not a great comparison since it's SP vs position player.  But man, I can see this one blowing up for the Angels.

That's obviously the risk, but I think that risk is baked into the contract. If he follows a normal aging curve he finishes his career in the same tier as Ruth and Bonds (add an * if you'd like, I'm not trying to start a PED debate) as the top players of all-time.

[esmd]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

That's obviously the risk, but I think that risk is baked into the contract. If he follows a normal aging curve he finishes his career in the same tier as Ruth and Bonds (add an * if you'd like, I'm not trying to start a PED debate) as the top players of all-time.

I hear you, but that's an awful big if.

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, esmd said:

Come on.  He's had 3 good years out of 7, with 3 more years to go.  Last year he had .5 WAR, the year before that he was negative.  They'll be lucky if he's replacement value for the next 3 years at $25-$30M per season.

My opinion was 5 out of 7 was good, so yes 2 down year, doesnt make it an albatross, yet.

[LookinUp]

The risk is he ends up like Ken Griffey Jr.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/griffke02.shtml 

[esmd]

Just now, LookinUp said:

The risk is he ends up like Ken Griffey Jr.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/griffke02.shtml 

Thank you, that's a much better example than Tillman.

[Dipper9]

I guess this is the "love" and respect that Manny was looking for in Baltimore.  (eye roll) 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, esmd said:

I hear you, but that's an awful big if.

7 solid years of fulltime pro pball and his worse WAR is 6.7

The man is as solid and consistence as a baseball machine as there ever was.

 

[esmd]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

7 solid years of fulltime pro pball and his worse WAR is 6.7

The man is as solid and consistence as a baseball machine as there ever was.

 

I agree.  But betting that he will continue to be for the next 12 years?  That's where I have an issue.

[esmd]

3 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

My opinion was 5 out of 7 was good, so yes 2 down year, doesnt make it an albatross, yet.

His cumulative WAR for the last 3 seasons is 0.  He has 3 seasons remaining at $28, $29, and $30M.  Yeah, it's an albatross.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, esmd said:

I agree.  But betting that he will continue to be for the next 12 years?  That's where I have an issue.

No single player is worth the insane amount of money they get.

Its a risk, every time you ink a player to a big deal, but on occasion it does work.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, esmd said:

I agree.  But betting that he will continue to be for the next 12 years?  That's where I have an issue.

He's so good that he won't have to continue for the next 12 years.  Unless you are like that other poster and think a bad final couple seasons on a 12 year deal makes the deal a failure no matter what was done in the first 10.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

No single player is worth the insane amount of money they get.

Its a risk, every time you ink a player to a big deal, but on occasion it does work.

No owner is worth the insane amount of money they get.