What is going on with Hess and Means?

[wildcard]

First let me say that I could not and did not predict that Hess and Means would look this good in the O's rotation.

However, it appears no one saw it coming.   In 2017 Tony ranked Hess the O"s #25 prospect.  Means was not ranked in the top 30.  In 2018 Tony/Luke ranked  Means #28.   Hess reached the major in 2018 was was not eligible of the prospect list. And this in a O's farm system that is supposed to be ranked near the bottom of the majors.

I don't remember MLB pipeline ranking Hess or Means above some where in the 20's.   Right now Means who is certainly eligible to be on their O's prospect list in not even listed in the top 30.

So what's going on.   Are these guys as good as they have looked in the early going to this season or are the distance for a fall?

[Luke-OH]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

First let me say that I could not and did not predict that Hess and Means would look this good in the O's rotation.

However, it appears no one saw it coming.   In 2017 Tony ranked Hess the O"s #25 prospect.  Means was not ranked in the top 30.  In 2018 Tony/Luke ranked  Means #28.   Hess reached the major in 2018 was was not eligible of the prospect list. And this in a O's farm system that is supposed to be ranked near the bottom of the majors.

I don't remember MLB pipeline ranking Hess or Means above some where in the 20's.   Right now Means who is certainly eligible to be on their O's prospect list in not even listed in the top 30.

So what's going on.   Are these guys as good as they have looked in the early going to this season or are the distance for a fall?

They obviously aren't 2 ERA and 3.30 ERA good.

Hess has a 5.10 FIP, he was ranked where he was for me because I projected him as a reliever without the type of swing and miss stuff to be a high leverage type. I don't have any significant evidence he's better than that yet, although he has seemed to hold his velocity better so far.

Means was ranked the way he was because he projected as swingman/long relief type. The development of the increase in changeup usage/effectiveness may warrant a bump. Means by the way has a 4.47 FIP. He has limited contact quality somewhat, so maybe he's a 4 ERA guy if you limit his times through a line-up to 2, but I think that's probably still on the optimistic side of the spectrum.  

Final note, I don't agree with the notion that the system is a bottom of the barrel system. I think a lot of that talk is people creating a narrative (see Keith Law's ridiculous ranking), I think it's a middle of the pack system that may have been higher on a talent perspective but been held back by less than optimal player development. 

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

They obviously aren't 2 ERA and 3.30 ERA good.

Hess has a 5.10 FIP, he was ranked where he was for me because I projected him as a reliever without the type of swing and miss stuff to be a high leverage type. I don't have any significant evidence he's better than that yet, although he has seemed to hold his velocity better so far.

Means was ranked the way he was because he projected as swingman/long relief type. The development of the increase in changeup usage/effectiveness may warrant a bump. Means by the way has a 4.47 FIP. He has limited contact quality somewhat, so maybe he's a 4 ERA guy if you limit his times through a line-up to 2, but I think that's probably still on the optimistic side of the spectrum.  

Final note, I don't agree with the notion that the system is a bottom of the barrel system. I think a lot of that talk is people creating a narrative (see Keith Law's ridiculous ranking), I think it's a middle of the pack system that may have been higher on a talent perspective but been held back by less than optimal player development. 

Hess had a 3.81 ERA in the 2nd half of 2018 in 10 starts and 54.1 IP.  His WHIP was 1.25.

[foxfield]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

First let me say that I could not and did not predict that Hess and Means would look this good in the O's rotation.

However, it appears no one saw it coming.   In 2017 Tony ranked Hess the O"s #25 prospect.  Means was not ranked in the top 30.  In 2018 Tony/Luke ranked  Means #28.   Hess reached the major in 2018 was was not eligible of the prospect list. And this in a O's farm system that is supposed to be ranked near the bottom of the majors.

I don't remember MLB pipeline ranking Hess or Means above some where in the 20's.   Right now Means who is certainly eligible to be on their O's prospect list in not even listed in the top 30.

So what's going on.   Are these guys as good as they have looked in the early going to this season or are the distance for a fall?

To start with, I think both look good, but part of the issue when you say you didn't think they would look THIS good, (my emphasis) is that you are looking at two guys who have had a couple, yes a couple of good starts to begin their major league season.  But it is also worth noting that THIS good means that compared to the actual installed rotation pieces in Baltimore, Cobb, Cashner and Bundy, they look fantastic.

Reality says they may not be as good as their small samples, but as to whether they are better than projected long term, this depends on their continued progress and development.  It is one of the good stories that we should expect in a rebuild.  And one of the improvements that we might expect from a fresh set of eyes.  Let's be honest if both became solid #5 pitchers it would be considered a win.  If they nudge higher.  Great.  

I am thrilled with both and hope they continue, but I'm not as surprised nor am I completely convinced.

[Frobby]

As I posted in another thread, Means has developed a greatly improved change-up this spring that makes him a better pitcher than where he was evaluated previously.    It remains to be seen how he’ll do once the league has seen him a few times, but his chances of success are greatly improved.   

Hess finished strong last year and I hope he can build on that in 2019.      His last two starts have been pretty meh, so we’ll see where it goes from here.   

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

I think it's a middle of the pack system that may have been higher on a talent perspective but been held back by less than optimal player development. 

I don't have the background to confirm this as true, but it was certainly my hope from the day Elias was hired.

The O's have been bickering about whether it was the scouts or the player development side for years. With a new crew in here now, the best case scenario would be that we had a player development problem rather than a scouting problem. The former would mean that we have more talent that might be ready to make significant strides this year. The latter would mean that we're something closer to a talentless organization that really would need to start from scratch. 

Let's hope Hess and Means are just two of many who had that talent that the previous regime just couldn't tap.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I don't have the background to confirm this as true, but it was certainly my hope from the day Elias was hired.

The O's have been bickering about whether it was the scouts or the player development side for years. With a new crew in here now, the best case scenario would be that we had a player development problem rather than a scouting problem. The former would mean that we have more talent that might be ready to make significant strides this year. The latter would mean that we're something closer to a talentless organization that really would need to start from scratch. 

Let's hope Hess and Means are just two of many who had that talent that the previous regime just couldn't tap.

I don’t necessarily think the previous regime couldn’t tap Hess’s talent.    He had a decent rookie campaign, finished the year well and I don’t know that he’s doing anything much differently this year.    But maybe there’s more that they’re doing with him.    Means has given Chris Holt a lot of credit for helping him with his change-up this spring, so I do think the new regime has had some impact there.   Of course, it’s way too early in the season to really judge how these two will do.

[TGO]

I haven't looked at Statcast to see how these guys have been throwing so far this year, but didn't they both come in this spring having added a few ticks to their fastballs?

[Luke-OH]

19 minutes ago, TGO said:

I haven't looked at Statcast to see how these guys have been throwing so far this year, but didn't they both come in this spring having added a few ticks to their fastballs?

Means is throwing 1.7mph harder on his average FB than his MLB debut last year. Hess is up 1.6mph from last year. 

Means only pitched in the majors briefly last year and Tony saw him throwing harder at points last season, although I saw him 89-91 earlier in the year. So that's not as conclusive, but Hess is definitely a velocity gainer at this point. 

[jerios55]

4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Means was ranked the way he was because he projected as swingman/long relief type. The development of the increase in changeup usage/effectiveness may warrant a bump. Means by the way has a 4.47 FIP. He has limited contact quality somewhat, so maybe he's a 4 ERA guy if you limit his times through a line-up to 2, but I think that's probably still on the optimistic side of the spectrum.  

Final note, I don't agree with the notion that the system is a bottom of the barrel system. I think a lot of that talk is people creating a narrative (see Keith Law's ridiculous ranking), I think it's a middle of the pack system that may have been higher on a talent perspective but been held back by less than optimal player development. 

1. They mentioned this in the broadcast the other day and it is an interesting thing to watch as the season progresses.

2. While it did seem there was more middle of the pack ratings (I know Keith Law was worse then others) I thought the biggest knock from a bunch of places was lack of high end talent.  If Hess/Means/others can show improvements like this, clearly the team overall will be in a better position.  Especially, if a similar type bump also occurs with some of the higher ranked guys