Alex Wells 2019

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Don't forget, Wells is on the Arizona Fall League roster, so his year isn't over yet.

I did forget that, and with 150 innings logged already (including playoffs), I’m surprised they’re sending him.  

[MurphDogg]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I did forget that, and with 150 innings logged already (including playoffs), I’m surprised they’re sending him.  

Me too, it isn't like he needs the work.  The biggest thing preventing him from being a sure-fire MLB starter is that his fastball sits at 90 MPH, and that is something that throwing additional innings isn't going to help. I don't see how he would really benefit from additional innings. I guess it will be nice to see whether his curveball looks as good against more advanced hitters, but I would be fine waiting until next season for that. I would rather see him in a strength program and see if he can add 1-2 MPH to his fastball.

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

Me too, it isn't like he needs the work.  The biggest thing preventing him from being a sure-fire MLB starter is that his fastball sits at 90 MPH, and that is something that throwing additional innings isn't going to help. I don't see how he would really benefit from additional innings. I guess it will be nice to see whether his curveball looks as good against more advanced hitters, but I would be fine waiting until next season for that. I would rather see him in a strength program and see if he can add 1-2 MPH to his fastball.

92 would really do wonders. Crazy what 1-2 up will do. 

I know he is a control guy but does he get good fastball movement?

[Luke-OH]

18 minutes ago, survivedc said:

92 would really do wonders. Crazy what 1-2 up will do. 

I know he is a control guy but does he get good fastball movement?

Very little horizontal movement, but it has really good spin for its velocity (faster the fastball, the more spin generally), so it doesn’t drop as much as you’d expect it to, that’s why it plays up in the zone better than down.

[survivedc]

26 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Very little horizontal movement, but it has really good spin for its velocity (faster the fastball, the more spin generally), so it doesn’t drop as much as you’d expect it to, that’s why it plays up in the zone better than down.

Baseball is a pretty cool game. So many different ways to get the job done.

[Frobby]

Wells closed the year with a nice performance in the Arizona Fall League: 15.2 IP, 15 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 15 K’s, 0.57 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 7.5 K/BB.     He made one start and 8 relief appearances.    
 

Overall, between Bowie (regular season and playoffs) and the AFL he threw 166 innings, most in the MiL organization by a good margin (and more than anyone on the major league team, for that matter).  He seems completely ready to move up to Norfolk, though the rotation there may be crowded.     

[MurphDogg]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Wells closed the year with a nice performance in the Arizona Fall League: 15.2 IP, 15 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 15 K’s, 0.57 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 7.5 K/BB.     He made one start and 8 relief appearances.    
 

Overall, between Bowie (regular season and playoffs) and the AFL he threw 166 innings, most in the MiL organization by a good margin (and more than anyone on the major league team, for that matter).  He seems completely ready to move up to Norfolk, though the rotation there may be crowded.     

Shouldn't have any innings cap next year, so if he is successful at Norfolk, he could potentially join the MLB rotation or bullpen and not be shut down.

Does anyone have any numbers on his spin rate? His velocity isn't that impressive but he seems to get results. I thought the AFL might test him, but he had a great season. Looking forward to seeing how he does in AAA.

[Frobby]

Here’s a report on Wells from Adam McInturff of 2080 Baseball following his Sept. 30 outing in the AFL:

”Above-avg control and overall pitchability will get him to the big leagues, though raw stuff is just too light for sustained role on contending ML roster. Profiles as upper-org depth piece, up/down type that brings 4A value.”

He give Wells’ changeup a 50 grade, curve a 45, but fastball a 40, with 50 command but 30 velocity and 45 movement.   

More details here: https://2080baseball.com/reports/alex-wells-2/

[Luke-OH]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s a report on Wells from Adam McInturff of 2080 Baseball following his Sept. 30 outing in the AFL:

”Above-avg control and overall pitchability will get him to the big leagues, though raw stuff is just too light for sustained role on contending ML roster. Profiles as upper-org depth piece, up/down type that brings 4A value.”

He give Wells’ changeup a 50 grade, curve a 45, but fastball a 40, with 50 command but 30 velocity and 45 movement.   

More details here: https://2080baseball.com/reports/alex-wells-2/

I think he's selling the fastball movement short, I don't have the exact spin numbers, but I'm pretty sure it's elite spin on a per MPH basis so it gets excellent rise from where an average spin 88mph fastball would land.

[MurphDogg]

41 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I think he's selling the fastball movement short, I don't have the exact spin numbers, but I'm pretty sure it's elite spin on a per MPH basis so it gets excellent rise from where an average spin 88mph fastball would land.

Sounds like they caught him on a day when his fastball velocity was down which makes sense at the end of a long season. They had him sitting 86 with an 84-89 range, which does not match what I have read or seen of him.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

Sounds like they caught him on a day when his fastball velocity was down which makes sense at the end of a long season. They had him sitting 86 with an 84-89 range, which does not match what I have read or seen of him.

I saw him touch 90 maybe once or twice all year, he sat 87-88 most of the year, so it wasn't too far off. He did touch 91 in relief in the AFL and was more 89-90.

[Ohfan67]

4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I think he's selling the fastball movement short, I don't have the exact spin numbers, but I'm pretty sure it's elite spin on a per MPH basis so it gets excellent rise from where an average spin 88mph fastball would land.

Would someone like Nick Vincent be a potential ML comp stuff wise? Vincent seems to have elite spin on an otherwise relatively weak fastball. Seems super hard to find a successful comp. 

[Luke-OH]

14 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Would someone like Nick Vincent be a potential ML comp stuff wise? Vincent seems to have elite spin on an otherwise relatively weak fastball. Seems super hard to find a successful comp. 

I'm not much of a comp guy, but the best comp I can come up with who is successful is Marco Gonzales. His Curve, Slider/Cutter, Changeup, Delivery, and Arm Slot are fairly similar. Gonzales has a tick or two more on the fastball and the command is better than Wells, IMO. Wells throws a better swing and miss fastball though because of the backspin, where Gonzales throws mostly a sinker to try and avoid hard contact. 

Gonzales is probably the 99th or so percentile outcome for Wells, but it's a reasonable comp. 

[Frobby]

Holt on Wells: “He’s a pitcher. He really works to execute with a plan. He does his homework, he knows the hitters and he knows what his strengths are. And he has zero fear. He just is 100 percent attack. And those are the things that jump out at me when I think of when I watch him pitch. He also has the ability to create swing-and-miss at times, frozen takes. He creates weak contact. So, he does a little bit of everything, but the number-one thing is he attacks.”

Wells has his doubters among some scouts because of his below-average velocity. Is that a concern for Holt?

“Well, like I mentioned before, it’s the total repertoire,” Holt replied. “We’ve certainly seen guys pitch at 88 to 91 (mph) in the big leagues because they had other pitches that are quality pitches and helped the fastball play up. He’s no exception to that. It’s really a matter of him continuing to develop the quality of his other offerings and then we continue to give him every chance to go out and attack with his plan.”

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/11/chris-holts-take-on-a-few-minor-league-pitchers.html

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Holt on Wells: “He’s a pitcher. He really works to execute with a plan. He does his homework, he knows the hitters and he knows what his strengths are. And he has zero fear. He just is 100 percent attack. And those are the things that jump out at me when I think of when I watch him pitch. He also has the ability to create swing-and-miss at times, frozen takes. He creates weak contact. So, he does a little bit of everything, but the number-one thing is he attacks.”

Wells has his doubters among some scouts because of his below-average velocity. Is that a concern for Holt?

“Well, like I mentioned before, it’s the total repertoire,” Holt replied. “We’ve certainly seen guys pitch at 88 to 91 (mph) in the big leagues because they had other pitches that are quality pitches and helped the fastball play up. He’s no exception to that. It’s really a matter of him continuing to develop the quality of his other offerings and then we continue to give him every chance to go out and attack with his plan.”

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/11/chris-holts-take-on-a-few-minor-league-pitchers.html

 

Wouldn't it be exciting if he went on the weighted ball program and came into spring training sitting at 91 and touching 93?