ROY- Means or Alvarez?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I wouldn’t say so.   The bullpen has blown 2 saves for him.  One of those was a game where he only pitched 5 innings and allowed 3 runs.    He got three wins where he only pitched 5 innings.   Over the season, he bequeathed 13 baserunners to the bullpen, and only one of them scored.   Overall, I’d say he got pretty good bullpen support.   

As to the defense, I can’t really break down how it’s done with Means on the mound, but Fangraphs rates our defense 33.6 runs below average and Means has pitched 10.8% of our innings, so that suggests our defense has cost him 3-4 runs more than average.    Not really a major factor.    

 

10 minutes ago, Philip said:

 I took a brief look at his game logs, and he’s only given up 6 unearned runs this year. But that only counts for runs that score on “errors“ and ignores the generally sloppy play that we’ve been watching all season. Even guys like Jim Hunter complain about Terrible fundamental baseball,  and the slop that is not called an error has haunted all of our pitchers.

I did not find how many inherited runners were allowed to score by the reliever Who replaced him, but it’s not a stretch to suggested it might be close to double digits.

You must have missed the bolded sentence of my post.   Relievers who followed Means allowed only 1 of 13 inherited runners to score.   That’s outstanding.   Major league average is 33% this year.    

I already addressed the point about defense.    The Fangraphs stats about runs above or below average on defense include both unearned runs and just extra runs given up due to lack of range, etc.   I’m not saying their stats are perfect, but until something else comes along, that’s what I’ve got.   

[Philip]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

You must have missed the bolded sentence of my post.   Relievers who followed Means allowed only 1 of 13 inherited runners to score.   That’s outstanding.   Major league average is 33% this year.    

I already addressed the point about defense.    The Fangraphs stats about runs above or below average on defense include both unearned runs and just extra runs given up due to lack of range, etc.   I’m not saying their stats are perfect, but until something else comes along, that’s what I’ve got.   

You are exactly right, I did miss it, and thank you very much for sharing that information one out of 13, that’s pretty good, so I will stand corrected.

He was hurt by defense is undeniable, but in the grand scheme of things it didn’t make that much difference, I will accept that. Thank you very much for the clarification I do appreciate it.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Philip said:

You are exactly right, I did miss it, and thank you very much for sharing that information one out of 13, that’s pretty good, so I will stand corrected.

He was hurt by defense is undeniable, but in the grand scheme of things it didn’t make that much difference, I will accept that. Thank you very much for the clarification I do appreciate it.

No problem.   I wish there was a good way to measure how much good/bad defense had affected an individual pitcher.    I personally feel that Bundy had particularly poor defensive support this year.  That’s somewhat borne out by the fact that 9 unearned runs were scored off him (as you noted, Means had 6), but I’m really looking for a more sophisticated measure.    

While I’m on the subject of Bundy, 9 of his 21 bequeathed runners (43%) scored.     That’s a high percentage, but also a lot of bequeathed runners.  Tied for 14th in the AL in most bequeathed runners, tied for 5th in how many bequeathed runners scored.   

Back to Means now, and sorry for that detour.    It’s really a shame that Alvarez will probably eclipse him in the ROY voting.    He’s had a great year.    Hopefully he follows it up in 2020.

[byrdz]

Means is too old to get it even though he's technically a rookie.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, byrdz said:

Means is too old to get it even though he's technically a rookie.

Older players have won it.

[Larry18]

Jackie Robinson was 28 when he won. 

[Moose Milligan]

22 minutes ago, Larry18 said:

Jackie Robinson was 28 when he won. 

Vastly different circumstances.

I'd love to see Means win it, as we all would.  But Alvarez is the choice.  

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Larry18 said:

Jackie Robinson was 28 when he won. 

Not the best example.   To say he had special circumstances is an understatement.   

Aaron Judge and Marty Cordova were 25 when they won.   Means is 26 now.    I haven’t looked too hard, but going back 30 years I didn’t see anyone 26 or older unless they were coming from an overseas league.   

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Not the best example.   To say he had special circumstances is an understatement.   

Aaron Judge and Marty Cordova were 25 when they won.   Means is 26 now.    I haven’t looked too hard, but going back 30 years I didn’t see anyone 26 or older unless they were coming from an overseas league.   

Bob Hamelin comes to mind,  I guess he wasn't that old but I thought he was like 28 when he won. 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Vastly different circumstances.

I'd love to see Means win it, as we all would.  But Alvarez is the choice.  

I don't think anyone is saying "Means is too old to get my vote."  Or "Means wasn't a highly rated prospect so I won't vote for him.".  Or "Means was an 11th round draft pick, no way he can be RoY.".

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Bob Hamelin comes to mind,  I guess he wasn't that old but I thought he was like 28 when he won. 

Wow, that’s impressive, Moose!    He was 26.   And never really had another season as good as his rookie year, though he topped .800 OPS two other times.   

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think anyone is saying "Means is too old to get my vote."  Or "Means wasn't a highly rated prospect so I won't vote for him.".

You're naive if being a highly rated prospect doesn't give you a jump start on ROY voting.  

Writers were practically ready to write Vlad Jr's name on it before the season started.  He was everyone's preseason choice.  When you look at it that way, it was his to lose.  And he did.  

I guarantee you most of those voters had not heard of John Means before the season started.  If it was the opposite, if Means was widely recognized as a top 10 prospect and was being picked to finish 2nd or 3rd in the ROY voting behind Vlad, I think he'd have a much better chance of winning. 

I know you don't understand it, I know you can't comprehend it.  But it's ok.  

Watch:  I would bet the car (not the farm) that Vlad finishes higher than Means in ROY voting this year.  Strictly based off name recognition and hype.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Wow, that’s impressive, Moose!    He was 26.   And never really had another season as good as his rookie year, though he topped .800 OPS two other times.   

Yeah, I'm not sure how I remembered that.  That was a dud year for rookies and the narrative on him was that he was, like, the oldest rookie of the year in quite some time.  1993 was Tim Salmon, but 1992 was Pat Listach.  Salmon had a great career but Listach washed out pretty quickly, too.  So 2 out of 3 rookies of the year in that period turned out to be duds.  

I think I remember this stuff partially because I was still collecting baseball cards at this time and I wanted Pat Listach cards.  And Bob Hamelin cards.  Not much of an investment there.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

You're naive if being a highly rated prospect doesn't give you a jump start on ROY voting.  

Writers were practically ready to write Vlad Jr's name on it before the season started.  He was everyone's preseason choice.  When you look at it that way, it was his to lose.  And he did.  

I guarantee you most of those voters had not heard of John Means before the season started.  If it was the opposite, if Means was widely recognized as a top 10 prospect and was being picked to finish 2nd or 3rd in the ROY voting behind Vlad, I think he'd have a much better chance of winning. 

I know you don't understand it, I know you can't comprehend it.  But it's ok.  

Watch:  I would bet the car (not the farm) that Vlad finishes higher than Means in ROY voting this year.  Strictly based off name recognition and hype.

That isn't what I said.

I'm not arguing that name recognition helps, because frankly people are lazy.

I said that his draft position and prospect ranking won't keep people from voting for him.

No one is going to look at the case for Vlad and the case for Means and decide to vote for Vlad because he was more highly rated.

The people voting for Vlad over Means aren't going to be looking at Means at all, because they aren't doing their job properly.

I'm actually curious if Vlad gets more vote than Boba Fett.  (Same rWAR in less than half the games).

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

You must have missed the bolded sentence of my post.   Relievers who followed Means allowed only 1 of 13 inherited runners to score.   That’s outstanding.   Major league average is 33% this year.    

I already addressed the point about defense.    The Fangraphs stats about runs above or below average on defense include both unearned runs and just extra runs given up due to lack of range, etc.   I’m not saying their stats are perfect, but until something else comes along, that’s what I’ve got.   

Is be interested to know if perhaps a disproportionate share of his inherited runners also came with two outs already recorded, or at first base rather than second/third.