Going for the #1 pick

[weams]

On 12/24/2019 at 3:07 PM, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Well yeah that too, but hopefully it's because the organization is following the Astros model.  

Crane asked that expenses be pared way down according to Astroball.

[tntoriole]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I guess it just depends on what you mean by “succeed.”     I certainly think if we haven’t had a winning season through 2023 the owner would probably have lost patience.     

Astros won 86 games in year four, and with that the wild card and the wild card game and were in the divisional series.   That would be our year 2022 by this analogy.  I will give Elias et al one more year for the AL East factors, blah, blah, but if they are not in the playoffs at at least wild card in 2023...next up! 

[weams]

12 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Astros won 86 games in year four, and with that the wild card and the wild card game and were in the divisional series.   That would be our year 2022 by this analogy.  I will give Elias et al one more year for the AL East factors, blah, blah, but if they are not in the playoffs at at least wild card in 2023...next up! 

It's always stated that the Astros got there a year early. But I agree!

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Astros won 86 games in year four, and with that the wild card and the wild card game and were in the divisional series.   That would be our year 2022 by this analogy.  I will give Elias et al one more year for the AL East factors, blah, blah, but if they are not in the playoffs at at least wild card in 2023...next up! 

Too many different scenarios for me to make a blanket statement like that.    

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

Too many different scenarios for me to make a blanket statement like that.    

If Elias (or any GM) can't put a winning team on the field after five years, he absolutely needs to go. 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

If Elias (or any GM) can't put a winning team on the field after five years, he absolutely needs to go. 

Winning team and wild card are two different things.    Let’s say we get a scenario like this:

2020: 54 wins

2021: 67 wins

2022: 77 wins

2023: 87 wins (no wild card)

Assume we have a good program running in the Dominican, and our farm system is highly rated.    

Are you going to dump Elias in this scenario because we haven’t made the playoffs yet?

I wouldn’t.    But I’ll worry about that later, when I see how reality unfolds.    

 

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

Just now, Frobby said:

Winning team and wild card are two different things.    Let’s say we get a scenario like this:

2020: 54 wins

2021: 67 wins

2022: 77 wins

2023: 87 wins (no wild card)

Assume we have a good program running in the Dominican, and our farm system is highly rated.    

Are you going to dump Elias in this scenario because we haven’t made the playoffs yet?

I wouldn’t.    But I’ll worry about that later, when I see how reality unfolds.    

 

I think most people would consider 87 wins a winning team.

If it's 2023 and the Orioles still can't get over 81 wins - then he certainly should go. He inherited a team that had the #1 Overall Pick waiting for him and a farm system that he himself has admitted was much better than advertised. Chris Davis and Alex Cobb will be gone by that point. 

Sure, this rebuild is more substantial than most, but anyone in any job - baseball or non-baseball -  should have results within five years.

[LookinUp]

Re: the Sun article, it's not clear to me that any of those teams will improve that much, or that incremental improvements from within the Orioles won't do more for the O's than those other teams are gaining with some mildly costly FAs. I'm not arguing that the O's will be good, but I don't think they're the shoe in for the #1 pick that is being portrayed. Shoe in for top 5? I'd say yes.

51 minutes ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

If Elias (or any GM) can't put a winning team on the field after five years, he absolutely needs to go. 

The details do matter, but I agree that he won't be able to continue tearing down the ML team and replacing players with lottery tickets after 5 years. He will have to invest in a core to be built around. Hopefully most of that will come from our own system, or players acquired from trades in our system, but it has to happen.

He can't always be looking 3-5 years down the road. At some point, the 3-5 years arrives.

[Mondo Trasho]

I don't have a hard deadline on when I'd like to see this team winning, making the playoffs and contending for a world series. Obviously the sooner the better, but I'm not fixed on a certain date or a certain number of years. What I want to see is an organization committed to consistently making sound decisions, even if all of them don't work out. Because if you're making the right decisions and putting the right systems and processes in place eventually things will turn out well. If we do that, today's decisions will not only pay off in 2023 or 2024 but in 2033 and 2034. 

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

I think most people would consider 87 wins a winning team.

If it's 2023 and the Orioles still can't get over 81 wins - then he certainly should go. He inherited a team that had the #1 Overall Pick waiting for him and a farm system that he himself has admitted was much better than advertised. Chris Davis and Alex Cobb will be gone by that point. 

Sure, this rebuild is more substantial than most, but anyone in any job - baseball or non-baseball -  should have results within five years.

I don’t think we really disagree.   The post from tntoriole to which I responded said Elias should go if we are not in the playoffs or at least a wild card by 2023.    That’s where I said there were too many scenarios to make a blanket statement like that.    I already said earlier in the thread that I thought Elias would be gone if he didn’t put a .500+ team on the field by then.   

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think we really disagree.   The post from tntoriole to which I responded said Elias should go if we are not in the playoffs or at least a wild card by 2023.    That’s where I said there were too many scenarios to make a blanket statement like that.    I already said earlier in the thread that I thought Elias would be gone if he didn’t put a .500+ team on the field by then.   

Like having a division with 3 90-win teams, not including us.

[weams]

82 wins is a winning team. For anyone. It took us a very long time to have a team that could play at that level. Dan Duquette promised that immediately and delivered. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Like having a division with 3 90-win teams, not including us.

I think the AL East is poised to be very strong over the next 5 years or so, particularly NY and Tampa.    The Red Sox could have issues, but let’s not forget they won 108 games in 2018.     Toronto I think is poised to push forward with their young talent and should be decent or better shortly.   All in all it will be a tough competitive environment.  

[LookinUp]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the AL East is poised to be very strong over the next 5 years or so, particularly NY and Tampa.    The Red Sox could have issues, but let’s not forget they won 108 games in 2018.     Toronto I think is poised to push forward with their young talent and should be decent or better shortly.   All in all it will be a tough competitive environment.  

I'm not sure what to think of Toronto. I think they're fighting for 85 wins, but I'm not exactly expert on their topic.

The other 3 are really worrisome, though I honestly also wonder what the Sox are doing sometimes.

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, weams said:

82 wins is a winning team. For anyone. It took us a very long time to have a team that could play at that level. Dan Duquette promised that immediately and delivered. 

It took us way too long.     I agree Duquette promised that immediately and delivered, but I do think he had a lot of good building blocks available in the short run to build around, thanks to ground work done by his predecessors.    That’s not to take anything away from what Duquette did, especially in 2012 when every move he made turned to gold.