Going for the #1 pick

[Camden_yardbird]

It's fairly clear to me the Orioles have no plan, but to build out analytics, and hope for miracles at this point.  From a talent acquisition point of view they are banking on the draft, and maybe an international market they can break into in a year or two.

They arent getting free agents.

They arent buying prospects.

They arent making trades for meaningful prospects.

This isnt the Astros model, it cant be, they cant sustain that level of salary for more than 2-3 years.

[EdwinRip]

Some people say we have no plan. If you are in that group, what specifically would you do?  It seems like some prefer the model we adopted for more than a decade - spend money on mediocre at best free agents in hopes to win 70 games.  I for one would rather suffer through more years of horrible teams if it means we are finally doing things the right way.  Free agent spending is important to supplement when the time is right.  We’ve also had few trading blocks lately, so meaningful trades are hard to come by.  I can guarantee you that no one is paying a ticket at Camden yards just to see Jonathan Villar.  They may however get excited over young players like Hays/Mountcastle/etc.  Also, the possibility of another Means situation becomes less and less of a possibility the more mediocre talent you bring in that will have no place on the team’s future.

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

Some people say we have no plan. If you are in that group, what specifically would you do?  It seems like some prefer the model we adopted for more than a decade - spend money on mediocre at best free agents in hopes to win 70 games.  I for one would rather suffer through more years of horrible teams if it means we are finally doing things the right way.  Free agent spending is important to supplement when the time is right.  We’ve also had few trading blocks lately, so meaningful trades are hard to come by.  I can guarantee you that no one is paying a ticket at Camden yards just to see Jonathan Villar.  They may however get excited over young players like Hays/Mountcastle/etc.  Also, the possibility of another Means situation becomes less and less of a possibility the more mediocre talent you bring in that will have no place on the team’s future.

Nice opener. 

[NCRaven]

I don't think anyone is expecting Elias to make a major signing or trade for established players.  But, I think it's not true that you have to ignore the current team to develop for the future.  They are not mutually exclusive.  You can improve data integration, player development, and international scouting/signings, while still filling obvious holes on the ML team at a modest cost.  You don't have to lose 110 games every year.  I'm not asking for competitive, just interesting.  

Having said that, I agree that adding talent like Mountcastle, Hays, Akin, Kremer, et. al. could do that over the course of this year.  

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I don't think anyone is expecting Elias to make a major signing or trade for established players.  But, I think it's not true that you have to ignore the current team to develop for the future.  They are not mutually exclusive.  You can improve data integration, player development, and international scouting/signings, while still filling obvious holes on the ML team at a modest cost.  You don't have to lose 110 games every year.  I'm not asking for competitive, just interesting.  

Having said that, I agree that adding talent like Mountcastle, Hays, Akin, Kremer, et. al. could do that over the course of this year.  

I don’t expect Elias to operate this way forever.   I also expect us to acquire a few players between now and Opening Day.    Just nobody very expensive.    

[LookinUp]

51 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

Some people say we have no plan. If you are in that group, what specifically would you do? 

40 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

You can improve data integration, player development, and international scouting/signings, while still filling obvious holes on the ML team at a modest cost.  You don't have to lose 110 games every year.  I'm not asking for competitive, just interesting.  

I'll take Raven's post a step further.

The O's current plan is to build an organizational foundation and then, theoretically, add to it in a competitive window.

Per Raven's plan, an alternative would be to build the foundation through the ML marketplace now. Maybe a team that's capable of winning 70+ games, and then supplement that team with the up and coming new talent. 

There is more than one way to skin this cat. I wouldn't hate a nearer-term plan either, but I'm on board with the current approach for sure.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I'll take Raven's post a step further.

The O's current plan is to build an organizational foundation and then, theoretically, add to it in a competitive window.

Per Raven's plan, an alternative would be to build the foundation through the ML marketplace now. Maybe a team that's capable of winning 70+ games, and then supplement that team with the up and coming new talent. 

There is more than one way to skin this cat. I wouldn't hate a nearer-term plan either, but I'm on board with the current approach for sure.

I would rather take the gamble of being really bad now to build a sustainable winning foundation that will take root in 3 to 4 years. Aiming to be better in the short term by investing in free agent talent or trading prospects for established veterans isn’t going to work very well in the AL East.

The Rays have been able to compete on cheap home grown talent and shrewd trades alone. My hope for the Orioles is they start developing talent like the Rays, but also keep that talent when it gets expensive. And trade for veterans to supplement the roster when the Orioles are serious contenders. 

There is no guarantee this works out and we’re talking about the new organizational plan in 2023. 

[LookinUp]

9 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I would rather take the gamble of being really bad now to build a sustainable winning foundation that will take root in 3 to 4 years.

Me too, with the added benefit that your odds of building a better foundation are higher with much more draft capital that comes with high picks. 

Still, it REALLY stinks if this model fails. The reaction will likely be an expensive rebuild that has a hard time competing in our own division.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Me too, with the added benefit that your odds of building a better foundation are higher with much more draft capital that comes with high picks. 

Still, it REALLY stinks if this model fails. The reaction will likely be an expensive rebuild that has a hard time competing in our own division.

It’s definitely a risk, but I think it’s the right move playing in the AL East. I have faith the Angelos brothers will let Elias do his thing. 

[7Mo]

3 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

It’s definitely a risk, but I think it’s the right move playing in the AL East. I have faith the Angelos brothers will let Elias do his thing. 

From the outside looking in, I think Elias had plenty of opportunities. I don't think he and Sig would have come without those assurances from the Angelos brothers. 

Of course, time can change things but I believe, as you do, that Elias will have resources to do it right as time progresses. 

[Oriole1940]

When a franchise  has been let  be ground into the ground as completely as this one, there are almost too many elements of risk to make a reasonable prediction as to what should be done to fix it, and to guess as to how many years it will or should take.  And then there is always the Wildcard, sometimes called Fate or Luck.  But being dealt this Hand, we can only hope and trust that the new management will figure it out sooner rather than later.  

[NCRaven]

I can get behind a team with 

1B Mancini

3B Ruiz / Nunez

LF Mountcastle

CF Hays

RF Santander

C Sisco / Severino

DH Davis (if he's got to play anywhere, it should be as a DH only) / Nunez

But, we have nothing at 2B or SS, unless you buy into Hanser Alberto at 2B full-time, and I'm just not a believer.  And, I get it.  Many of these guys may be gone when we're winners.  Outside of Mountcastle and Hays, they all could be gone.

I admit, there's still time.  The pitching will probably suck, but my hope is that it gets better as the season goes on and some talent is promoted.  I enjoyed Luke's look at minor league free agent pitching.  If he does something similar with middle infielders, I'd be thrilled since that's our biggest need after pitching.  

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Oriole1940 said:

When a franchise  has been let  be ground into the ground as completely as this one, there are almost too many elements of risk to make a reasonable prediction as to what should be done to fix it, and to guess as to how many years it will or should take.  And then there is always the Wildcard, sometimes called Fate or Luck.  But being dealt this Hand, we can only hope and trust that the new management will figure it out sooner rather than later.  

Fate and luck count for a lot.    Imagine if Bundy and Harvey had stayed completely healthy.     Now, if you can force yourself to do it, imagine that Hall and Rodriguez both have to go under the knife.    Having healthy, high upside young pitchers is a huge thing for a franchise.   

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

But, we have nothing at 2B or SS, unless you buy into Hanser Alberto at 2B full-time, and I'm just not a believer. 

An underrated aspect of Alberto’s game is that he’s an outstanding defender at 2B.   +14.5 UZR/150, +11 Rtot/yr, +10 Rdrs/yr last season.     I believe that’s real.   Therefore, even if he slips on offense, as we all expect, he can still be an average or better contributor overall IMO.

[SteveA]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

An underrated aspect of Alberto’s game is that he’s an outstanding defender at 2B.   +14.5 UZR/150, +11 Rtot/yr, +10 Rdrs/yr last season.     I believe that’s real.   Therefore, even if he slips on offense, as we all expect, he can still be an average or better contributor overall IMO.

Exactly.   At the very least a placeholder until our new and improved farm system finally starts pumping out quality middle infielders.