Going for the #1 pick

[now]

4 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Outside of Mountcastle and Hays, they all could be gone.

What, no love for the baby bull (Santander)?

[tntoriole]

11 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Of course.  And everyone should never forget the terrible period before 2012 and the bottoming out of 2017-2019. If this organization has a respectable non playoff team in 2022-2023 with a solid minor league system and respectable organization overall,  you'd have to be an idiot to want to start over again.

How about  “solid” and “respectable” only  in 2024, 2025, or 2026?  When do you hold Elias accountable for winning something?   Nobody is forgetting anything...and, of course, even as bad as that was, the team did win a title, multiple playoffs and more games from 2012-2016 than any AL team.  It is not unreasonable to expect the same or more at some point from our current GM and his team. 

I just would not give any GM a complete pass for no winning after a 5 year rebuild  ....I just disagree.    Starting over is not the same as simply going in a new direction or making different choices that get teams over the top.   Andy took things to a certain point and Dan certainly did not have to “start over” when he took over.   

[hoosiers]

8 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

It's fairly clear to me the Orioles have no plan, but to build out analytics, and hope for miracles at this point.  From a talent acquisition point of view they are banking on the draft, and maybe an international market they can break into in a year or two.

They arent getting free agents.

They arent buying prospects.

They arent making trades for meaningful prospects.

This isnt the Astros model, it cant be, they cant sustain that level of salary for more than 2-3 years.

I don't think the Os plan could be any clearer.  

Build out a top analytics group.

Build out a top international scouting presence.

Build out a top player development team.

Be ready for the draft.  Try to draft in the top 3 until it is clear the organization is ready to improve.

Clear payroll.

Take chances on reclamation projects Ruiz, Hansser, Broxton,  and others to see if they have value.

Be patient as minor leaguers make their way through the system.

It's pretty basic blocking and tackling, but it forgoes unnecessary spend at the major league level for a couple of incremental wins.

[hoosiers]

5 hours ago, Oriole1940 said:

When a franchise  has been let  be ground into the ground as completely as this one, there are almost too many elements of risk to make a reasonable prediction as to what should be done to fix it, and to guess as to how many years it will or should take.  And then there is always the Wildcard, sometimes called Fate or Luck.  But being dealt this Hand, we can only hope and trust that the new management will figure it out sooner rather than later.  

It is a matter of clearing payroll and a relentless gathering of prospects until we are ready to compete.

There is nothing for new management to figure out.  They have a plan and they are executing it.

[orioles22]

On 12/24/2019 at 3:03 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Or just have ownership keep it.

I remember when we were saving to pay Tex. I don't think spending some on one-year contracts would do anything to slow our rebuilding program

[hoosiers]

On ‎12‎/‎25‎/‎2019 at 9:16 PM, tntoriole said:

Astros won 86 games in year four, and with that the wild card and the wild card game and were in the divisional series.   That would be our year 2022 by this analogy.  I will give Elias et al one more year for the AL East factors, blah, blah, but if they are not in the playoffs at at least wild card in 2023...next up! 

As Frobby notes, too many variables for me to say that we must compete by 2023.  One also doesn't know the arc of the other franchises in the division.  Perhaps the NYY are on the downside in three years as Stanton, Judge and Cole and others are at the age of expected decline.  Certainly, the Rays will be good.  The Jays should be on the upswing.  Two of our most important prospects are pitchers who have yet to see their careers stall due to injury, but, even so, both will be learning the major league ropes with less than two years experience entering 2023 as a best case.

Should we have a low payroll and positions manned by above average developing talent in Rutschmann, Diaz, Hays, Mountcastle, GrayRod, DL Hall and others?  Yes, but there are too many variables to demand competitiveness in a particular year.  As long as we continue to build assets and show a competent and growing international presence, I am fine with the current management.  

[tntoriole]

4 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

As Frobby notes, too many variables for me to say that we must compete by 2023.  One also doesn't know the arc of the other franchises in the division.  Perhaps the NYY are on the downside in three years as Stanton, Judge and Cole and others are at the age of expected decline.  Certainly, the Rays will be good.  The Jays should be on the upswing.  Two of our most important prospects are pitchers who have yet to see their careers stall due to injury, but, even so, both will be learning the major league ropes with less than two years experience entering 2023 as a best case.

Should we have a low payroll and positions manned by above average developing talent in Rutschmann, Diaz, Hays, Mountcastle, GrayRod, DL Hall and others?  Yes, but there are too many variables to demand competitiveness in a particular year.  As long as we continue to build assets and show a competent and growing international presence, I am fine with the current management.  

Again it is pretty easy to say that 2023 is not the definitive year  and to give an open ended pass about “variables” but for me the “variable” ultimately has to be winning, so I ask again...when WOULD you expect a playoff or better team?  I am certainly not willing to make an open ended commitment to any GM without winning being the expectation even though I absolutely agree with everything done to date and with the harsh rebuild plans.   When might one want a change made if no playoff appearances are had? 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Again it is pretty easy to say that 2023 is not the definitive year  and to give an open ended pass about “variables” but for me the “variable” ultimately has to be winning, so I ask again...when WOULD you expect a playoff or better team?  I am certainly not willing to make an open ended commitment to any GM without winning being the expectation even though I absolutely agree with everything done to date and with the harsh rebuild plans.   When might one want a change made if no playoff appearances are had? 

I think you simply have to evaluate the situation year by year.    Wish I could give a more definitive answer than that, but I can’t.    I can imagine scenarios where Elias deserves to be out after 2021 (though I’d call those scenarios remote).      I can imagine others where he hasn’t sniffed the postseason after 5 years and is out.    But I can also imagine scenarios where he’s here 7 years without a playoff appearance and yet deserves to stay (though again I’d call those remote).    

[Oriole1940]

39 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

It is a matter of clearing payroll and a relentless gathering of prospects until we are ready to compete.

There is nothing for new management to figure out.  They have a plan and they are executing it.

So all they have to do is plug in the new plan, put it on auto, and go play golf.  I believe there will be decisions and details to make each and every day to execute the overall plan.    And these have to be figured out  continually until the rebuild is either successful or a failure.  It is far from certain that all aspects of the plan will go perfectly as you insinuate.  The world does not work that way.  

[tntoriole]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think you simply have to evaluate the situation year by year.    Wish I could give a more definitive answer than that, but I can’t.    I can imagine scenarios where Elias deserves to be out after 2021 (though I’d call those scenarios remote).      I can imagine others where he hasn’t sniffed the postseason after 5 years and is out.    But I can also imagine scenarios where he’s here 7 years without a playoff appearance and yet deserves to stay (though again I’d call those remote).    

I can’t even imagine a scenario without a playoff appearance for 7 years AND he is still the GM.  Sure, I would look at it year by year, but I would likely be pretty clear with him as to what has to happen on the field at the major league level for him to continue beyond 5 years.  I would be pretty dissatisfied with the losing by that point.   No matter the status of the organization or how “close” we might be to winning after 7 years, I would probably call for changing  horses.  But then I am pretty concrete at times.

[NCRaven]

2 hours ago, now said:

What, no love for the baby bull (Santander)?

Is Diaz for real?  If yes, Santander May fit as a DH/4th outfielder.

[survivedc]

By my count in the last 7 years only 4 teams have not been in the playoffs at least once: Phillies, Marlins, Padres and Mariners. 

I would say not making the playoffs by year 7 is a failure. The farm system is decent and improving and ownership clearly has money to spend in the right situation.

[luismatos4prez]

I'm really disappointed with this offseason. I respect that Elias and Co have a "You'll come back when we win" attitude, but the level of apathy towards current fans of the Orioles is disheartening.

Throw us a bone here. It seems unnecessarily cruel to make us watch Davis, Martin, Wilkerson, Smith Jr, etc. for another year. Those 4 wouldn't make most AAA teams. At least give us some new faces to watch bumble around the diamond.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Is Diaz for real?  If yes, Santander May fit as a DH/4th outfielder.

Also I want to see if Santander can repeat his 2019 success before we start thinking he is a part of the Orioles future.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

I'm really disappointed with this offseason. I respect that Elias and Co have a "You'll come back when we win" attitude, but the level of apathy towards current fans of the Orioles is disheartening.

Throw us a bone here. It seems unnecessarily cruel to make us watch Davis, Martin, Wilkerson, Smith Jr, etc. for another year. Those 4 wouldn't make most AAA teams. At least give us some new faces to watch bumble around the diamond.