Finding Rotation Depth in the MiLB FA Market

[Luke-OH]

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/12/26/finding-rotation-depth-in-the-milb-free-agent-market/

A brief write-up of the 6 most interesting minor league free agent arms (that could start). 

[Luke-OH]

I missed that Michael Peoples signed to play in NPB in Japan, didn't show up in a google search. The article has been corrected accordingly.

[Frobby]

A lot of work here.    It will be interesting to see where these guys land.   

[joelala]

Thanks Luke as always, this is some really in depth stuff on obscure players. Love it! I see no downside in signing at least two of these guys. Thompson would be my first choice, and Mella sounds like he could be a nice bullpen piece if nothing else. 

[sportsfan8703]

Good article @Luke-OH

I don't think we're going to see a traditional five man rotation this year.  We'll see guys like Means and Cobb, work every 5 days, but I think we'll see cover the rest with multi inning relievers.  I'm sure we'll see a couple of milb guys like this signed.  Hopefully we see some guys emerge from the multi inning "relief" outings.  Last year only Means, was able to make something of that opportunity.  

[Frobby]

54 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Good article @Luke-OH

I don't think we're going to see a traditional five man rotation this year.  We'll see guys like Means and Cobb, work every 5 days, but I think we'll see cover the rest with multi inning relievers.  I'm sure we'll see a couple of milb guys like this signed.  Hopefully we see some guys emerge from the multi inning "relief" outings.  Last year only Means, was able to make something of that opportunity.  

I’m not sure the math really works to have three days out of five covered by multi-inning relievers.    Figure the typical team has to cover 1440 innings (O’s were at 1443 last year).     350 go to Cobb and Means, if you’re lucky.    Assume you’ve got three guys who are traditional back end relievers who cover another 210.    That leaves you 8 multi-inning guys to cover 880 innings.    That’s 110 each.     That sounds challenging to assemble and juggle 8 pitchers who can do that.   

[Ruzious]

Quote

 

Thank you Luke.  Fwiw, Jake Thompson was a decent 14-0 as a senior at Oregon State - with a 1.52 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 3.14 SO/W ratio.  And scouting reports then said he didn't have a decent curveball, so he's added to his arsenal.  I would rather bet on him than on Hess.      

[NCRaven]

Interesting read, thanks Luke.  I don't understand the total lack of visible activity.  I assume that they are doing something, but there have been no results since the Rule 5 draft.

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Thank you Luke.  Fwiw, Jake Thompson was a decent 14-0 as a senior at Oregon State - with a 1.52 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 3.14 SO/W ratio.  And scouting reports then said he didn't have a decent curveball, so he's added to his arsenal.  I would rather bet on him than on Hess.      

Wrong Jake Thompson, this guy was drafted out of HS. He was a top 100 prospect on some lists in 2015, including 52nd on Keith Law's list. But I'm 100% sure the quality of the curve is a new development, having went back and watched old video. 

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Interesting read, thanks Luke.  I don't understand the total lack of visible activity.  I assume that they are doing something, but there have been no results since the Rule 5 draft.

I can't speak on the progress they are making towards signing some players, but this is a dead time for baseball, so I wouldn't expect much until after the New Year. 

[NCRaven]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

I can't speak on the progress they are making towards signing some players, but this is a dead time for baseball, so I wouldn't expect much until after the New Year. 

Understood, but I was really speaking about the time between the Rule 5 and Christmas.  It's been very busy for other teams.  Even for giving players minor league contracts with ST invites.  I'm sure there has been effort; slightly surprised that they've done nothing other than announce the coaching staff.

[sportsfan8703]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not sure the math really works to have three days out of five covered by multi-inning relievers.    Figure the typical team has to cover 1440 innings (O’s were at 1443 last year).     350 go to Cobb and Means, if you’re lucky.    Assume you’ve got three guys who are traditional back end relievers who cover another 210.    That leaves you 8 multi-inning guys to cover 880 innings.    That’s 110 each.     That sounds challenging to assemble and juggle 8 pitchers who can do that.   

It won't be 8 guys to cover 880 innings, it'll be 20+ guys.   

[Ruzious]

7 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Wrong Jake Thompson, this guy was drafted out of HS. He was a top 100 prospect on some lists in 2015, including 52nd on Keith Law's list. But I'm 100% sure the quality of the curve is a new development, having went back and watched old video. 

Excellent - I'm sold.  And thanks for the correction.  

[wildcard]

My guess is FA pitchers don't want to pitching Camden Yard unless that can't find anything else. I think Elias is going to have to claim them or purchase them,  if he is not trading for them.

[SteveA]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m not sure the math really works to have three days out of five covered by multi-inning relievers.    Figure the typical team has to cover 1440 innings (O’s were at 1443 last year).     350 go to Cobb and Means, if you’re lucky.    Assume you’ve got three guys who are traditional back end relievers who cover another 210.    That leaves you 8 multi-inning guys to cover 880 innings.    That’s 110 each.     That sounds challenging to assemble and juggle 8 pitchers who can do that.   

Right, and you need some sort of long man available the day Means or Cobb pitches on the occasional chance they get knocked out in the 1st or 2nd inning.   So you can't use those guys regularly on days 3-4-5.   Or at least not on day 5.