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Now use it to recalculate WAR


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It didn't like Ruiz.  A quick skim of 1B/2B/SS/3B:

Mancini and Davis right at the 50-yard line

Alberto was in top half, Villar was pits of the earth

SS improvement from bottom quartile Martin to top quartile Iglesias

An hour after release, Ruiz as a Bottom 5 third baseman is the biggest question it gives me on my sense of who a player is.  He was tied with Machado (complacent Machado?) at -5.  In terms of franchise cornerstones on AL East rivals in the medium term, a little comforting to see looks like Vlad will be locked into 1B/DH fast.

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Found this interesting:

Examples of infielders OAA grades out more highly

Freddy Galvis // +12 OAA, vs -2 DRS and -1.3 UZR
Justin Turner // +4 OAA, vs -7 DRS and -6.8 UZR
Carlos Correa // +9 OAA, vs +1 DRS and +0.1 UZR
Hunter Dozier // 0 OAA, vs -15 DRS and -5.3 UZR

Galvis is an "outstanding defensive shortstop," Reds manager David Bell said in August, so his position here is nice to see.

What about in the other direction?

Examples of infielders OAA grades out more poorly

Didi Gregorius // -13 OAA, vs -5 DRS and +0.2 UZR
Marcus Semien // -4 OAA, vs +4 DRS and +6.4 UZR

Gregorius also hit just .238/.276/.441 in his return from Tommy John surgery, so below-average defense along with that isn't terribly surprising.

Finally, how about notable players where current metrics simply don't agree?

Examples of infielders OAA where UZR and DRS disagree

Xander Bogaerts // -3 OAA, vs -20 DRS and +1.2 UZR
Rafael Devers // +7 OAA, vs -6 DRS and +3.2 UZR
Nick Ahmed // +16 OAA, vs +18 DRS and +2.1 UZR
Jorge Polanco // -16 OAA, vs +1 DRS and -8.8 UZR
Amed Rosario // -6 OAA, vs -16 DRS and -1.1 UZR

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Maybe this sheds some light on the Villar decision. If Sig knew about these metrics (I'm sure he did), then perhaps the O's didn't buy his WAR total and thus his cost. And likely most other teams have these metrics as well, hence the lack of trade value. 

Now instead you have two top 30 defenders in your MI based on this metric for a fraction of the cost. 

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3 minutes ago, interloper said:

Maybe this sheds some light on the Villar decision. If Sig knew about these metrics (I'm sure he did), then perhaps the O's didn't buy his WAR total and thus his cost. And likely most other teams have these metrics as well, hence the lack of trade value. 

Now instead you have two top 30 defenders in your MI based on this metric for a fraction of the cost. 

Same with Gregorius. Was kind of surprised that the yanks didn't bring him, and the market for him was pretty low. A lot of moves seem to make a little more sense.

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Guess who's next to last on the 2019 team leaderboard?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/infield-defense?year=2019&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=&roles=&viz=show&type=team

I guess we can thank Machado's SS moonlight for helping power the Padres to 30th.

Orioles also 29th in 2018, and 22nd in 2017.  The Savant pages seem to have 2017-2018 for this as well.

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By the way, though they are just releasing this data now, it goes back as far as 2017.

I think for now I’m going to consider this stat to be a data point to be weighed with other defensive metrics, rather than one that is inherently superior to the others.   Reading the methodology, it’s pretty complicated and there are some factors they use that are debatable (such as using the average speed of a particular runner rather than his speed on the play in question).     But in any event, glad to have it.

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

So, Martin was -7 by bb-ref/DRS.  -5 by this.  He's up from -0.6 to -0.4 wins now!

DRS is stated in terms of runs, OAA is in terms of outs.    Not sure I’m right, but I think generally when measuring defense the conversion rate is 1 out = 0.6 runs.    You’d probably know if I’m remembering that right.   

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1 hour ago, esmd said:

That's opposite of what I would've expected.  Or am I not understanding it correctly.  +6 means 6 above average (i.e. good), and -6 would be 6 below average (bad).  Right?

Right. Hanser. He’s so hot right now. 

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Combining the 2019 team reports of IFOAA and OFOAA, I get the Orioles at -35, with more than twice as many missed outs than the 27th place Tigers at -16.  The Pirates -25 and Twins -20 rounded out the bottom four.  Iglesias and a steady infusion of more promising pitchers may save us from another threat to letting in 1000 runs.

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29 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

Interesting to note on the outfielders:

The highest-rated Orioles outfielder was the much-maligned Steve Wilkerson at -2.  Mancini was -6 and DSJ came in at -10.

If you lower the opportunity threshold you can see Hay at +1 and Mullins at +3 in limited sample sizes.

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