Fangraphs: Orioles’ Top 40

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

I was surprised to see McKenna ranked equally to Diaz and Hayes, especially the latter.  He doe not seem to get the same respect here.

Just speaking for myself, McKenna has to prove a lot to get on my radar. There were whispers last year that he wasn't following through on coaching, getting himself out on the basepaths a lot, etc. In addition to just a down year offensively. 

But I could also see him cracking the 26-man at some point this year if we need someone to play CF. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

To give a sense of how tough Fangraph grades players and where the players will likely rank on Fangraphs Top 100+ when the list is finished, here is where the cutoffs for FV's were for their 2019 midseason list (that is, the lowest ranked player in each FV tier).

70 - #1

65-  #3

60- #14

55- #37

50- #106

The Orioles had 4 players with FVs of 50 or above: Adley Rutschman at 60, Grayson Rodriguez at 55, DL Hall and Ryan Mountcastle at 50.

 

Pretty comparable to the other top 100 lists we’ve seen.   Any idea how many 45’s there were?

[Beef Supreme]

I’m happy to see Grenier at 19, but surprised since he is not listed in the OH’s Top 30. Is their ranking higher because of his draft position? Is the OH ranking undervaluing his defense?

[Can_of_corn]

18 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

I’m happy to see Grenier at 19, but surprised since he is not listed in the OH’s Top 30. Is their ranking higher because of his draft position? Is the OH ranking undervaluing his defense?

I am going with Fangeaphs overvaluing his defense.

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

I’m happy to see Grenier at 19, but surprised since he is not listed in the OH’s Top 30. Is their ranking higher because of his draft position? Is the OH ranking undervaluing his defense?

 

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I am going with Fangeaphs overvaluing his defense.

I know Luke always liked Hall's defense a bit better than Grenier's, but Fangraphs rates Hall 45/50 for fielding and 50/55 for throwing, while Grenier rates 50/55 and 60/60.    So yeah, they do like his defense.    Whether they overvalue it is TBD.    They also said this:

Quote

He was a swing-change candidate for pro ball and his hands do load a little differently now, coming toward his rising front knee before circling back around in a loop toward the ball. This is reminiscent of lots of Donaldsonesque swings implemented in the minors right now. If something clicks, Grenier could be an everyday shortstop. For now, the strikeouts push him toward a lesser, middle infield utility role.

 

[HowAboutThat]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I found this interesting:

“Baltimore appears headed down the Houston scouting model pathway toward video and data-heavy analysis. They’ve fired some scouts and hired Scouting Analyst Consultants. “Consultant” titles in baseball don’t have to be included on org ledgers so a team can have a lot of them and other teams/general folks don’t always know about it. How Lunhow-y things get in Baltimore is officially up in the air after the namesake’s grizzly end in Houston. Part of the reason baseball’s collective disdain for Houston grew was because of the scout firings, so maybe Baltimore (and Milwaukee) won’t go that far.”

I believe Luke’s position is “Scouting Analyst Consultant.”

The word is “grisly”

Boy that made me laugh. If I had a nickel for every time I didn’t edit correctly…

[HowAboutThat]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-40-prospects-baltimore-orioles/
 

I haven’t read it yet, but will note that Fangraphs does a blurb on every player with a 35+ grade, and having 40 of those is a very healthy number.    More comments later.   

But 35 is terrible.

Just checked again, 35 is “Emergency Callup”

I can’t see how that is anything to write home about.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

But 35 is terrible.

They distinguish 35+ from 35.   And yeah, you’re not expecting much from a 35+.   And just a note: generally, the guys at Fangraphs are tough graders.   

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

But 35 is terrible.

Just checked again, 35 is “Emergency Callup”

I can’t see how that is anything to write home about.

If I was an emergency call up I'd write home about it.

[HowAboutThat]

7 hours ago, jerios55 said:

So a few quick notes:

From last year, DJ Stewart, Jean Carlos Encarnacion, Richie Martin, Branden Kline, Dillon Tate, Evan Phillips, Mattias Dietz, Jean Carmona and Luis Ortiz came off last years 31 players.  (My count: 5 due to graduating and 4 due to poor showing).

4 players increased their grades: Grayson (45 to 55), Baumann (35+ to 45), Bannon (35+ to 40) and Rom (35+ to 40)

9 players decreased their grades: Diaz (50 to 45), Kremer/Lowther/Akin (45 to 40+), Hanifee (40+ to 35+), Carroll/Knight/Sparks/Cumberland (40 to 35+)

9 players maintained their grade: DJ Hall, Mountcastle, Hays, McKenna, Adam Hall, Greiner, Pop, Harvey and Zebron

So 18 additions: Rutschman, Henderson, Stowers, Zimmerman, Bailey, Hernaiz, Bradish, Wells, Watson, Ortiz, Handley, Diplan, Rucker, Mattson, Peralta, Daschbach, Peek, Bautista

Several in last group were draft picks (including top 3 new guys 1,5,10) and several from Bundy trade, the 2 Rule V guys and at least 1 waiver claim (Diplan).  I don't know all the guys near the bottom, so add commentary to this last line if desired. 

Did you omit Sedlock?

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

Did you omit Sedlock?

Sedlock wasn't on either list, although in my opinion, he should have been on the additional arms to watch list this year.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Pheasants said:

I was surprised to see McKenna ranked equally to Diaz and Hayes, especially the latter.  He doe not seem to get the same respect here.

Seems like they really like his speed and defense.   Interestingly, the tool grades are essentially identical to the OH grades. FG first, OH second:

Hit: 45/50, 40/45

Raw power: 45/45, 50/50

Game power: 30/35, 40/45

Speed: 70/70, 70/70

Field: 55/60, 55/60

Throw: 50/50, 50/50

FG likes his hit tool better than OH, OH likes his power more than FG.

[Tony-OH]

9 hours ago, Pheasants said:

I was surprised to see McKenna ranked equally to Diaz and Hayes, especially the latter.  He doe not seem to get the same respect here.

Yeah, I have a big disagreement with rating McKenna anywhere near Hays or Diaz. While McKenna does have some tools to work with, besides 300 PAs in Frederick, what has he ever done on the field? 

 

[MurphDogg]

McKenna was also very good for 78 PA's in Glendale in the Arizona Fall League in 2018, with a .344/.474/.590 line, his line was .296/.374/.473 over his last 233 PA's at Delmarva in 2017.

From June 5th through the end of the season last year he had a .248/.338/.386 line in a league where the average line was .238/.311/.366 while he was more than 2 years younger than the average Eastern League player.

He has had his struggles with the bat but he has elite speed and plus defense at a premium position. He has higher upside than many players and if you value upside, ranking him above players with middle/back of the rotation ceilings makes sense.

Big year coming up for him this year, definitely one to watch.

 

[Aristotelian]

13 hours ago, jerios55 said:

 

9 players decreased their grades: Diaz (50 to 45), Kremer/Lowther/Akin (45 to 40+), Hanifee (40+ to 35+), Carroll/Knight/Sparks/Cumberland (40 to 35+)

 

 

Hard to see what Kremer or Lowther did last year to merit any kind of decrease.