TT: Early Look at Positional Battles

[Philip]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

Two of the non roster players have a great chance of making the opening day roster IMO.   That is LeBlanc and Milone.   The O's need the starters.   Urias and Wynns are the two most vulnerable players on the 40 man IMO.

The O's have mainly a right handed hitting lineup.   Hays, Mancini, Nunez, Mountcastle, Alberto, Iglesias, Severino are all right handed hitters.  Davis and  switch hitting Santander are the only regulars that hit lefty after Mountcastle is  promoted and Nunez plays 3B.  So having lefties that can fill in is important.  On the bench there is lefty Ruiz.  That gives lefty Sisco an edge over Holaday.    Switchhitting Mullins has a  chance  to make the  26 man as a backup player.  Velazquez being a switch-hitter adds to his chances over righthand hitting, non rostered Valaika.     

DJ Stewart or Smith are both lefties but whoever wins the OD job is probably sent down when Mountcastle is promoted.   Or they could add Valaika  to begin the season and demote him when Mountcastle is promoted.  Valaika has an option.   If that happens then Lakins is probably the most likely to be DFA'd to make room for Valaika.

The other thing that is nice about this alignment is that Mullins and Velazquez can be defensive replacements for Mancini and Santander in the corners giving the O's three center fielder types  in the late innings when they are ahead.   And Ruiz can defensively replace Nunez.

Just my current thinking.

 Although I didn’t have either of them making the team, I’m inclined to agree with you about your pitching choices. I think Rucker, Bailey, Sulser, and surprise, Caroll also make the staff.

I disagree regarding Sisco. The weakest position on the team is pitching. The best way to support the pitching is with excellent defense, and we are making strides in that direction, but we also need a competent catcher, and Sisco isn’t. If he can hit enough to be worth keeping, Which is a pretty open question at the moment, let’s see if he can learn a different position.

I haven’t checked whether he’s a righty or lefty, but Mason Williams will be fourth outfielder because of his versatility. Mullins can’t hit a lick, and aside from his speed is a liability on defense. 

Regarding the infield position wars, defense and versatility are going to trump handedness. None of the other guys you mentioned hits well enough anyway.

my original choice for utility was Urena...so long ago... now I think I’m on board the Velazquez train. His defense is a welcome sight. 

[Philip]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

He has some command problems.  I think he starts at AAA.   I would not say no chance.  Just probably not as good a chance as some others to go north with the O's team.

I don’t think Akin makes it. I really think Hyde wants the Rule 5 guys to stick, at least to open the season.

Kremer may have a chance, though.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, ChuckS said:

I didn’t see Keegan Akin mentioned. He has no chance to make this team?

I overlooked mentioning him but I think he's heading back to AAA. I'm guessing as long as Milone and LeBlanc look decent, they'll give Akin more time to redevelop his command.

[ChrisP]

Nice summary. Thanks for mentioning a new metric/stat to learn (OppQual).   

[wildcard]

Though I like what I have seen from Carroll and Sulser a lot, they may have trouble making the team on OD if there are no injuries.

The top four are Harvey, Givens, Bleier, and Castro.    Bailey, Rucker and Armstrong have to make the team or they are gone.   So far they have done enough to stay.    And the O's need a 2nd lefty which so far looks like Fry or maybe Blach.    

There is just not a lot of room for one inning plus pitchers like Carroll and Sulser in an 8 man pen right now.  They both have options.   When did the O's all of a sudden  find depth?

[Woody Held]

I have been sitting behind home plate so far at all the home games.  Holiday is impressive, he explodes out of the box on grounders to the infield, frames pitches well and has a good arm.   He has great reaction time blocking pitches. All things we are not familiar with with Serevino and Sisco.  He can also can hit a little.  Severino drives me nuts behind the plate. 

[Philip]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Though I like what I have seen from Carroll and Sulser a lot, they may have trouble making the team on OD if there are no injuries.

The top four are Harvey, Givens, Bleier, and Castro.    Bailey, Rucker and Armstrong have to make the team or they are gone.   So far they have done enough to stay.    And the O's need a 2nd lefty which so far looks like Fry or maybe Blach.    

There is just not a lot of room for one inning plus pitchers like Carroll and Sulser in an 8 man pen right now.  They both have options.   When did the O's all of a sudden  find depth?

I don’t disagree with your post, but this is a bit disappointing. I was enthusiastic about Sulser, and happily surprised about Carroll. I’m not in love with Armstrong or Castro, but they both deserve to stay( at least for now) so it looks like some deserving guys will get dumped.

[Philip]

37 minutes ago, Woody Held said:

I have been sitting behind home plate so far at all the home games.  Holiday is impressive, he explodes out of the box on grounders to the infield, frames pitches well and has a good arm.   He has great reaction time blocking pitches. All things we are not familiar with with Serevino and Sisco.  He can also can hit a little.  Severino drives me nuts behind the plate. 

I happily agree with this. Holaday is a real catcher. Sisco is not a catcher at all, and Severino is bad.

[Tony-OH]

27 minutes ago, Philip said:

I don’t disagree with your post, but this is a bit disappointing. I was enthusiastic about Sulser, and happily surprised about Carroll. I’m not in love with Armstrong or Castro, but they both deserve to stay( at least for now) so it looks like some deserving guys will get dumped.

The thing with Carroll is he might be ready, but if the Orioles want to keep him and say Rucker, they can still send him to AAA and keep both for now since Carroll has options. It's not the end of the world if Carroll gets some more AAA experience. 

[Tony-OH]

19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I'd be curious to know why you guys are so down on Severino's defense.  He has a really strong arm. Are his framing numbers terrible?  What do dislike about him?

His framing number are below average. He was -4 in extra strikes received which tied him for 48th among qualified catchers in the MLB last year.

BTW, Sisco was -5 (55th). Holaday just missed the 1000 pitch cut off (999) but was -3. which would have tied him for 41st.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

His framing number are below average. He was -4 in extra strikes received which tied him for 48th among qualified catchers in the MLB last year.

I was thinking before that Severino might have a future as Adley’s backup, but maybe not if he continues to grade out poorly in advanced metrics. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

His framing number are below average. He was -4 in extra strikes received which tied him for 48th among qualified catchers in the MLB last year.

BTW, Sisco was -5 (55th). Holaday just missed the 1000 pitch cut off (999) but was -3. which would have tied him for 41st.

That is a cumulative stat right?  So Holaday would look better since he has a lower pitches caught.

[Philip]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The thing with Carroll is he might be ready, but if the Orioles want to keep him and say Rucker, they can still send him to AAA and keep both for now since Carroll has options. It's not the end of the world if Carroll gets some more AAA experience. 

I do think the Orioles want to keep Bailey and Rucker both, and frankly, I think they’ve both been good enough to keep. But I doubt they’d cut Armstrong, and I appreciate the logic in keeping Fry, which means that Sulser and Carroll both miss the cut.

In the grand scheme, it doesn’t matter except to them, but Sulser was one of my dark horses to make the team, and Dammit I wanted to be right about at least one...grrrr

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

That is a cumulative stat right?  So Holaday would look better since he has a lower pitches caught.

Yes, that is my understanding. Strike rate percentage may be the better one to judge on as it's amount of strikes they get in the zones just off the plate.

Severino: 46.1%
Sisco: 44%
Holoday: 43.6% 

So it appears Holoday is not a good pitch framer either which may have been the reason he was available on a minor league deal despite decent CS% and offensive numbers last year. 

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, Philip said:

I do think the Orioles want to keep Bailey and Rucker both, and frankly, I think they’ve both been good enough to keep. But I doubt they’d cut Armstrong, and I appreciate the logic in keeping Fry, which means that Sulser and Carroll both miss the cut.

In the grand scheme, it doesn’t matter except to them, but Sulser was one of my dark horses to make the team, and Dammit I wanted to be right about at least one...grrrr

Many more innings to go.    Moreover, the second half of spring training is much more meaningful because (1) the players have largely shaken off the rust, and (2) the regulars are playing more.    The part of spring training that has passed is the least meaningful part when it comes to making any serious judgments.