2020 Orioles draft review: Elias ends up with three first round talents

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I don't think its correct to call Baumler a first round talent.    MLB Pipeline rated him as the 57th best pitcher in the draft.  And signability had nothing to do with that rating.  The pitchers rated above him had better fastball, breaking pitches, change and/or better control.

Baumler projects to help the O's but that says more about the level on pitching talent in the O's system then anything else.

“First round talent” is one of those phrases that means different things to different people.   No. 3 overall pick Max Meyer was chosen in the 34th round out of high school - was he not a “first round talent” then?    Asa Lacy (no. 4) - 31st round.   Emerson Hancock (no. 6) - 38th.    So I think in many cases, calling a high schooler a “first round talent” means he’s someone who would have a good chance of being drafted in the first round if they went to college for three years and developed as expected.    Then there are guys who slip due to money concerns, or who are very talented but have injury concerns.     Lots of ways to look at it.    

For me, I’m happy to call our two late picks second round talents, if it makes people feel better.    

And there is plenty of pitching talent in our minor league system.    We are above average on that front.     The real problem is that our major league pitching is terrible so it’s not like the rising minor leaguers just need to fill in a couple of holes.    

 

[LA2]

Ok, I've been suckered. What did Martin's t-shirt say? Can't find it on the web.

[Explosivo]

16 minutes ago, LA2 said:

Ok, I've been suckered. What did Martin' t-shirt say? Can't find it on the web.

It really was innocuous. It said "more than an athlete". Its more about how it set him apart. You could look at it as a negative or a positive or neutral. It's not about the political message even if there was one at all. Its just a window into the psyche of the player. And go O's. I want nothing more than to be able to share a World Series with my dad before he passes. He has battled cancer, diabetes, and is still going strong. But man, we need a window to open up because 5 years from now may be a different story. I think that's the main reason why I'm taking such investment in this rebuild and will be vocal in the near future. Go O's!

[Moose Milligan]

33 minutes ago, Frobby said:

“First round talent” is one of those phrases that means different things to different people.   No. 3 overall pick Max Meyer was chosen in the 34th round out of high school - was he not a “first round talent” then?    Asa Macy (no. 4) - 31st round.   Emerson Hancock (no. 6) - 38th.    So I think in many cases, calling a high schooler a “first round talent” means he’s someone who would have a good chance of being drafted in the first round if they went to college for three years and developed as expected.    Then there are guys who slip due to money concerns, or who are very talented but have injury concerns.     Lots of ways to look at it.    

For me, I’m happy to call our two late picks second round talents, if it makes people feel better.    

And there is plenty of pitching talent in our minor league system.    We are above average on that front.     The real problem is that our major league pitching is terrible so it’s not like the rising minor leaguers just need to fill in a couple of holes.    

 

This is kind of how I look at it, too.  Might not have been slam dunk first round talents this year but certainly look like they were headed that way in the future after college.  Also, maybe either Mayo or Baumler slides into the 2nd round if they weren't perceived as hard guys to sign this year.

 

[LA2]

4 hours ago, Explosivo said:

It really was innocuous. It said "more than an athlete". Its more about how it set him apart. You could look at it as a negative or a positive or neutral. It's not about the political message even if there was one at all. Its just a window into the psyche of the player. And go O's. I want nothing more than to be able to share a World Series with my dad before he passes. He has battled cancer, diabetes, and is still going strong. But man, we need a window to open up because 5 years from now may be a different story. I think that's the main reason why I'm taking such investment in this rebuild and will be vocal in the near future. Go O's!

OK, thanks. Best wishes for your father's health and his enjoying the next O's World Championship.

[HowAboutThat]

I’m kind of wondering what the people at Blue Bird banter thought about their draft? It’s not just one player, but 6.

no one knows for sure yet, but maybe the potential of our crop is greater than that of the Jays’?

[FlipTheBird]

22 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’m kind of wondering what the people at Blue Bird banter thought about their draft? It’s not just one player, but 6.

no one knows for sure yet, but maybe the potential of our crop is greater than that of the Jays’?

There’s not been a lot of analysis short of being pumped they got Martin at 5. We won’t know who “won” for 4-5 years.

[HowAboutThat]

42 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

There’s not been a lot of analysis short of being pumped they got Martin at 5. We won’t know who “won” for 4-5 years.

Exactly, but the purpose of the question was to suggest that the Reactions are all in the moment, and no one will know for a while how the choices work out.

Our fresh out of high school guys won’t be hitting the big for 4 years. That’s a long time to hold your breath.

[FlipTheBird]

3 hours ago, Philip said:

Exactly, but the purpose of the question was to suggest that the Reactions are all in the moment, and no one will know for a while how the choices work out.

Our fresh out of high school guys won’t be hitting the big for 4 years. That’s a long time to hold your breath.

Well that’s the hard part about a complete organizational overhaul, which the Orioles are really still just starting.

Ideally in 3-5 years diehard fans will still been keenly award of the 17-18 year old high school kids we’re drafting, but not getting impatient over their long roads to the majors - because we’ll have a better baseball organization as a whole and won’t have to be desperately awaiting any small bit of good news. It’s just that right now... we’re a good ways out from that.

[O's84]

Jeez, this thread reminded me of the days when JTrea would take on the entire board.

[DirtyBird]

On 6/12/2020 at 10:17 AM, Roll Tide said:

I think its a bad strategy to pass on the BPA or try to add value later. They highest percentage of wins in the prospect game are in round one. Why hurt that percentage in hopes of getting potential value later....Just my 2 cents

LOL, "your two cents"...

I'm pretty sure you are at about 17,846 cents right now.

[DirtyBird]

 

[Spl51]

https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2020/6/15/prospects-live-in-depth-mlb-draft-grades

Quote

One little tidbit, I’ve been told by a source close to the Orioles organization that Bryce Jarvis was the arm the Orioles hoped fell to 30, and that they had no interest in Bitsko. Take that for what it’s worth but it’s an interesting tidbit. 

Interesting. 

[Obando]

2 hours ago, Spl51 said:

https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2020/6/15/prospects-live-in-depth-mlb-draft-grades

Interesting. 

This makes sense to me, because Jarvis went to Driveline in the off-season and upgraded his fastball velocity and quality of his off speed pitches.  He has the growth mindset that the Orioles front office wants in their players, and Chris Holt has connections with Driveline, so he probably had good inside info on Jarvis’ makeup and insight on the improvements he made.  Also, Jarvis got off to a great start this year, and the draft model probably projected him to have a great season if it were to have been played in its entirety.  When you add in that Jarvis’ father pitched in the big leagues, giving him good bloodlines, it all makes sense why the Orioles would have had Bryce ranked highly on their board.  I think Jarvis & Jared Shuster from Wake Forest were 2 of the pitchers the Orioles were targeting at 30 (Bobby Miller could have been as well), as Elias indicated pitchers that they liked got picked before they made their second pick of the draft.  And by the time it got to pick 30, Westburg was clearly the highest rated player on their board.

[Ruzious]

On 6/12/2020 at 8:24 PM, Tony-OH said:

We have a winner... Martin has a good hit tool, but his average power limits his ceiling in the power game that is played today. 

This is why I don't think he's a prospect in the category of Machado or Rendon.  Rendon had much better power numbers and wasn't considered a slugger - just a good power potential guy.  I would have picked Lacy over Martin.  

I liked every pick other than the 2 shortstops - though both seem like excellent athletes.  If one of them develops real well, then it's a win.