Kjerstad comes in at #99 on BA Top 100

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll believe the Jays are willing to spend two #1's and a #2 on Martin when I see it and not a moment before.

Smart move is to call his bluff and collect the pick for next year if he goes back to school.

I think they will do everything they can to avoid doing so. But, most of the articles out of Toronto said they were shocked and elated that he was there at 5. Even gifted to them by the have nots of baseball. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think they will do everything they can to avoid doing so. But, most of the articles out of Toronto said they were shocked and elated that he was there at 5. Even gifted to them by the have nots of baseball. 

Everything they can do includes telling him to pound sand and taking the 2021 pick.

 

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Rob ....I’m sure you don’t believe this. Maybe he wasn’t 10th on their list but I won’t believe that they had him 2nd or in a lump of five or six guys that were close. 
 

Here is what an article said about Martin expecting 2 slot money. It looks like the Jays may go over the limit and be penalized picks next year. So the Orioles couldn’t go over slot on the guys they did that were using the Go to college Card as leverage.

 

I’m not saying the Orioles didn’t really like Kjerstad....that much is obvious! I’m just not wearing the orange colored glasses that would convince me that he was the BPA. 
 

I understand the approach.....I don’t like the strategy and believe they past on the best hitter in the draft.

That article means nothing.

So, you believe the Orioles took a player they rated far worse on their board, with the second pick?  

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That article means nothing.

So, you believe the Orioles took a player they rated far worse on their board, with the second pick?  

 

I do.

I think they valued Kjerstad + the savings higher than Martin at what he would have cost.

That's a reasonable strategy.

[MCO'sFan]

59 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

@MCO'sFan

Thanks for trying to speak for me but you are completely wrong. I never said that underslotting wasn't part of it. Clearly it was. That doesn't mean that it was the only part of it. ME says that he's the guy they wanted and I don't have any reason to think he is lying.

[MCO'sFan]

28 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think they will do everything they can to avoid doing so. But, most of the articles out of Toronto said they were shocked and elated that he was there at 5. Even gifted to them by the have nots of baseball. 

What did you expect them to say? We'd rather have had player X but we had to settle for Martin because one of the teams ahead of us chose the player we really wanted. 

[Sports Guy]

48 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I do.

I think they valued Kjerstad + the savings higher than Martin at what he would have cost.

That's a reasonable strategy.

But that doesn’t mean they felt Martin was a much better player.

Put it another way..if they felt there was a wide gap between Martin and Kjerstad, I don’t think they take Kjerstad.  If they valued Martin very highly, I think they take that player.

[ArtVanDelay]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I think they will do everything they can to avoid doing so. But, most of the articles out of Toronto said they were shocked and elated that he was there at 5. Even gifted to them by the have nots of baseball. 

Toronto is one of the have-nots of baseball.  They’ve had like 2 good seasons in my lifetime. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Rob ....I’m sure you don’t believe this. Maybe he wasn’t 10th on their list but I won’t believe that they had him 2nd or in a lump of five or six guys that were close. 
 

Here is what an article said about Martin expecting 2 slot money. It looks like the Jays may go over the limit and be penalized picks next year. So the Orioles couldn’t go over slot on the guys they did that were using the Go to college Card as leverage.

 

I’m not saying the Orioles didn’t really like Kjerstad....that much is obvious! I’m just not wearing the orange colored glasses that would convince me that he was the BPA. 
 

I understand the approach.....I don’t like the strategy and believe they past on the best hitter in the draft.

I have no doubt that if the O's had taken Martin with the #2 pick Boras would hold out for #1 pick money of 8.4m.  Then the O's would have been in a similar situation as the Blue Jays are facing.

[wildcard]

Seems like Elias choices were: 

1) Kjerstad (underslot),  Mayo and Baumler (overslot)

2) Martin (overslot)

3) Lacy for #2 slot money

I would have taken Lacy for slot but I understand with Elias' history with 1st round pitchers why he did what he did.

[Philip]

Oh give it a rest!

sheesh.

[joelala]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t agree with the opinion of @MCO'sFan that Kjerstad was the Orioles highest rated player. I also don’t think Elias believes that either. I think he likes Kjerstad and his potential. But they sacrificed the #2 pick value to have money to considerably over pay Mayo and Baumer. 
 

Id still think they made a mistake! I won’t hate it as much as I would if Kjerstad turns out to be a high strikeout .240 hitter that hits 20-30 home runs with a low OBP. If you look at prior drafts as I have mentioned over and over, only 30ish % of 1st rounders will be all star players. That number drops as the rounds move along and then drop off the table. 
 

Also, I’m not a big fan of drafting high school players, All you have to do is look at guys like Dylan Bundy, he was the can’t miss TOR guy that the Orioles desired. He was a major disappointment. Giving up the best player at 2 for a couple of lower probability lottery tickets is not a good strategy. I’m not saying it won’t work out. It may indeed! I’m saying I don’t like the strategy or passing on the best pure hitter in the draft. And unlike somewhere I’m not trying to convince myself that Elias thought Kjerstad was the better selection.

Noted and a fair stance. 

Time will tell. Let’s hope the Jays do indeed go over the threshold to sign their guys and are penalized with the loss of a first and second rounder next year. 

They may actually be in a decent position to do that organizationally though. There window to compete is almost open now (minus a true ace and some bullpen help) and if they view Martin as you do, it’s arguably very much worth the risk for them. Needless to say, however, we do not have the luxury to concede our first two picks next year. Very interesting strategy by the Jays. Must admit they scare me.  

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

That article means nothing.

So, you believe the Orioles took a player they rated far worse on their board, with the second pick?  

 

I think Elias viewed Kjerstad, Baumer, and Mayo over Martin and whatever they would’ve got at slot value in the other rounds.I just don’t like the approach.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, MCO'sFan said:

Thanks for trying to speak for me but you are completely wrong. I never said that underslotting wasn't part of it. Clearly it was. That doesn't mean that it was the only part of it. ME says that he's the guy they wanted and I don't have any reason to think he is lying.

Not trying to speak for you ....This is what you said dude!

 

Quote

 

I guess I am suggesting a few things. First, BA is extremely slow to admit that the had a prospect/draftee rated too high or too low. Second, I am suggesting that it is a farce to have Martin ranked 16th when three teams passed on him after Torkelson was taken (not just the O's). Signability has not been an issue with Martin so, it is safe to say that there seems to be at least somewhat of a consensus that he was not the second best prospect in the draft. But mostly, I really dislike BA's self-bias' it rivals only ESPN. BA shoves prospects down our throats until they are complete busts. They are slow (if ever) to recognize they were wrong. ESPN hypes whatever they are broadcasting to the point where I stopped watching it several years ago. 

 

[Roll Tide]

43 minutes ago, joelala said:

Noted and a fair stance. 

Time will tell. Let’s hope the Jays do indeed go over the threshold to sign their guys and are penalized with the loss of a first and second rounder next year. 

They may actually be in a decent position to do that organizationally though. There window to compete is almost open now (minus a true ace and some bullpen help) and if they view Martin as you do, it’s arguably very much worth the risk for them. Needless to say, however, we do not have the luxury to concede our first two picks next year. Very interesting strategy by the Jays. Must admit they scare me.  

The Jays are stacked with premium position prospects. And they could afford to go over.....but they maybe go just under the penalty threshold and sign their other remaining pick underslot to gain a few hundred thousand extra. If Martin is a team player he wouldn’t want the Jays to forfeit those picks. I don’t expect Boras to care and I’m sure he knows where the line is and will go right to it.

As for us we didn’t have that problem, we had the #2 slot money and could even go almost $500,000 over without reaching a penalty threshold and that is not going cheap on a guy later.