Kjerstad comes in at #99 on BA Top 100

[Roll Tide]

Hell ... Elias pretty much admits to it ....Just not solely on money. I’m sure they like him as a prospect....otherwise his selection would just be idiotic!

 

Quote

, Elias reiterated that the decision wasn’t driven solely by money

https://www.mlb.com/news/orioles-2020-draft

[MCO'sFan]

9 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

This is simply flawed logic! The Orioles and Marlins both went cheaper with Kjerstad and Meyer. The Orioles strategy has been discussed here At great length....To further prove it they gave 1 to 1.5 million Over slot to the 4 & 5 th round high schoolers to get them to pass on college scholarships. So based on there allotment the easiest way to have that much extra money is to underpay your 1st rounder or not sign a draftee. KC went with the best pitcher on the draft who also could’ve went first had the Tigers decided to go pitching.

Thanks for sharing your OPINION. I shared mine. You don't have to agree with it. It doesn't lessen the value of it. 

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, MCO'sFan said:

Thanks for sharing your OPINION. I shared mine. You don't have to agree with it. It doesn't lessen the value of it. 

Noted

[MCO'sFan]

9 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Again .. your wrong about this based on the baseball slotting game. The Marlins and Orioles went with players where they could get signing bonus discounts to use later in the draft 

This is one of the things I hate about this board. There are a few guys who discount others thoughts and opinions by saying that they are wrong. When in fact I may be wrong in your opinion. I certainly know how the slotting system works!! Thanks for being condescending. 

[VaBird1]

14 minutes ago, Philip said:

AR

GreyRod

DL Hall

and Kjersted?

aren't Hays and Mountcastle still

prospects?

They weren’t on the list this time.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Hell ... Elias pretty much admits to it ....Just not solely on money. I’m sure they like him as a prospect....otherwise his selection would just be idiotic!

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/orioles-2020-draft

Obviously part of the reason they selected him was because he would take less than slot.  That’s obvious and always has been.

But that doesn’t mean he wasn’t highest on their board and even if he wasn’t, they very likely saw such little difference between him and the others on their list that the money saved on him was worth drafting him.

They weren’t considering a pitcher, rightly or wrongly.  So, it was Kjerstad/Martin/Gonzalez/Veen(maybe) as the guys he was considering.

Martin has position and power questions, Veen was a HSer and Gonzalez, while a good upside player, is a second baseman who had elevated stats playing in high altitude.

Lots of pros and cons on all of these guys and no real sampling for this season to go off of.  Combine all of those factors and it’s pretty obvious why they took Kjerstad imo. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Which would be 7th slot money. A sound compromise for selecting the 10th rated prospect with the second selection.

 

But everyone here thinks I’m wrong 

 

Just not the stupid media (rolls eyes)

 

 

https://pressboxonline.com/2020/06/11/orioles-gm-mike-elias-downplays-under-slot-motivation-behind-heston-kjerstad-pick/

 

 

I’m not sure you understand the discussion. Who is saying underslot isn’t at least a part of it?

[scOtt]

Excuse me because I'm dumb...

Shouldn't a #2 overall pick be ranked higher than #99?

[joelala]

27 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I’m not sure you understand the discussion. Who is saying underslot isn’t at least a part of it?

He just disagrees with the underslot strategy and seems to be somewhat resistant to any counter arguments in its favor, I think. 
 

@Roll Tide:what if in five years, Kjerstad is an All-Star reserve, Mayo is in the top 5 in ROY voting, and one of the other guys is an above replacement level contributing regular, but Austin Martin wins the AL MVP? Would you he happy with the draft?

This is how hypothetical it all is. 

[Can_of_corn]

27 minutes ago, scOtt said:

Excuse me because I'm dumb...

Shouldn't a #2 overall pick be ranked higher than #99?

Just because of draft status?

No.

if you take the tenth best player second because he'll sign for #7 money why should his prospect ranking go up?(Hypothetically)

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I’m not sure you understand the discussion. Who is saying underslot isn’t at least a part of it?

@MCO'sFan

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Obviously part of the reason they selected him was because he would take less than slot.  That’s obvious and always has been.

But that doesn’t mean he wasn’t highest on their board and even if he wasn’t, they very likely saw such little difference between him and the others on their list that the money saved on him was worth drafting him.

They weren’t considering a pitcher, rightly or wrongly.  So, it was Kjerstad/Martin/Gonzalez/Veen(maybe) as the guys he was considering.

Martin has position and power questions, Veen was a HSer and Gonzalez, while a good upside player, is a second baseman who had elevated stats playing in high altitude.

Lots of pros and cons on all of these guys and no real sampling for this season to go off of.  Combine all of those factors and it’s pretty obvious why they took Kjerstad imo. 

Rob ....I’m sure you don’t believe this. Maybe he wasn’t 10th on their list but I won’t believe that they had him 2nd or in a lump of five or six guys that were close. 
 

Here is what an article said about Martin expecting 2 slot money. It looks like the Jays may go over the limit and be penalized picks next year. So the Orioles couldn’t go over slot on the guys they did that were using the Go to college Card as leverage.

Quote

If Martin does intend to sign at the $7.7 million evaluation, the Blue Jays would need to spend just around $11 million to get all five drafts (this includes Frasso signing for his assigned value). This would force the Blue Jays to go over the 10% threshold, meaning they would lose a first-round and second-round pick next year while also being charged a 100% tax penalty. No team has ever gone above the 5% (let alone 10%) mark since the draft bonus system was put in place in 2012.

 

I’m not saying the Orioles didn’t really like Kjerstad....that much is obvious! I’m just not wearing the orange colored glasses that would convince me that he was the BPA. 
 

I understand the approach.....I don’t like the strategy and believe they past on the best hitter in the draft.

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, scOtt said:

Excuse me because I'm dumb...

Shouldn't a #2 overall pick be ranked higher than #99?

Sure ...l If they would’ve taken the BPA....They didn’t to save money to draft guys later that were using college scholarships as leverage. 
 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Rob ....I’m sure you don’t believe this. Maybe he wasn’t 10th on their list but I won’t believe that they had him 2nd or in a lump of five or six guys that were close. 
 

Here is what an article said about Martin expecting 2 slot money. It looks like the Jays may go over the limit and be penalized picks next year. So the Orioles couldn’t go over slot on the guys they did that were using the Go to college Card as leverage.

 

I’m not saying the Orioles didn’t really like Kjerstad....that much is obvious! I’m just not wearing the orange colored glasses that would convince me that he was the BPA. 
 

I understand the approach.....I don’t like the strategy and believe they past on the best hitter in the draft.

I'll believe the Jays are willing to spend two #1's and a #2 on Martin when I see it and not a moment before.

Smart move is to call his bluff and collect the pick for next year if he goes back to school.

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, joelala said:

He just disagrees with the underslot strategy and seems to be somewhat resistant to any counter arguments in its favor, I think. 
 

@Roll Tide:what if in five years, Kjerstad is an All-Star reserve, Mayo is in the top 5 in ROY voting, and one of the other guys is an above replacement level contributing regular, but Austin Martin wins the AL MVP? Would you he happy with the draft?

This is how hypothetical it all is. 

I don’t agree with the opinion of @MCO'sFan that Kjerstad was the Orioles highest rated player. I also don’t think Elias believes that either. I think he likes Kjerstad and his potential. But they sacrificed the #2 pick value to have money to considerably over pay Mayo and Baumer. 
 

Id still think they made a mistake! I won’t hate it as much as I would if Kjerstad turns out to be a high strikeout .240 hitter that hits 20-30 home runs with a low OBP. If you look at prior drafts as I have mentioned over and over, only 30ish % of 1st rounders will be all star players. That number drops as the rounds move along and then drop off the table. 
 

Also, I’m not a big fan of drafting high school players, All you have to do is look at guys like Dylan Bundy, he was the can’t miss TOR guy that the Orioles desired. He was a major disappointment. Giving up the best player at 2 for a couple of lower probability lottery tickets is not a good strategy. I’m not saying it won’t work out. It may indeed! I’m saying I don’t like the strategy or passing on the best pure hitter in the draft. And unlike somewhere I’m not trying to convince myself that Elias thought Kjerstad was the better selection.