Kjerstad comes in at #99 on BA Top 100

[joelala]

59 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

It was $300,000 less, no? And bonuses were frozen this year to the same value as last year.
 

Kjerstad’s bargaining position was not what it probably would have been if the season was played in it’s entirety. His advisors were held to what he has shown in the past. The Orioles’ projections models obviously were much higher on him.
 

Similarly, J.J. Bleday was not inline to be a top 5 pick last year at the beginning of the season, but he improved a great deal and was rewarded for his work by Miami. Andrew Benintendi was another who was not even consider publicly as even a third round pick before the 2015 season, but was picked 7th. Many college juniors put it together and rise rapidly. It happens all of the time. LH power is a rare commodity.
 

And personally, I think Burnitz would be Kjerstad’s floor. I believe he is a much better hitter, and a better fielder. For me, a better comp is Jay Bruce on the lower end. I could not think of a good higher end recent comp. I think Kjerstad and Bleday are strikingly similar players, though I think Kjerstad has a bit more raw power and a little better hit tool, but it’s close. Bleday is ranked #49 by BA, #28 by MLB Pipeline. 
 

I know...You don’t like the pick. 

Justin Morneau for a higher end comp (offensively at least)?

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Come on now, his floor is he doesn't make the majors.

 

On this we agree 

[Beef Supreme]

4 hours ago, Flosman said:

Maybe we will get lucky and it turns out like 2003. The 7th best player was better than the 2nd rated 2b. I don't think nick with more power is a bad comp. Weeks is also a great comp for Martin. The truth is we won't  know for a long time. 

I think Jemile Weeks might be a comp for Austin Martin. Or maybe Richie Martin. Or Ryan Flaherty. And that would be very disappointing for A.M.

As for C_o_c's rejection of the Nick comp, Heston and he are both RFs picked in the first round of the Rule 4 draft by the Orioles...so there is a kind of comp. If you look at Nick's power numbers in the first few years of his career, they look a little lower than we hope for Kjerstad. And Nick's BA/OBA look higher than we may expect from HK. What we did not expect was Nick's power declining at a young age and his slugging percentage tumbling below .400 in his 29th year. Nick's power resurgence five years later at the age of 34 was also unpredictable. Might a better comp be Larry Sheets? Don't laugh young bucks: dude could stroke.

By the time the draft came around, I was fearing that the Orioles were going to pick Martin. The thought of Martin being a highly-touted prospect gone bust was palpable for me since he had marginal expectation of playing a premium position and projected to hit for below average power, especially considering the national media scouting services were promoting frozen-in-amber projections because of the unimaginable, shortened college season. I had tried to convince myself they would take Lacy instead. But a lot of us had heard rumors about Kjerstad and others, so I wasn't shocked like many of us were when the Orioles announced their first-round choice.

There is no "Elias love fest" going on here. Nor is there a "hate fest." My gut tells me that when it came to "BPA," the Orioles did not think it was Martin. I think they believed the BPA was Kjerstad. And if the economics adds nuance to the decision, that's fine. It doesn't mean that, in their eyes, Heston was not still their BPA.

[DrungoHazewood]

8 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

It was $300,000 less, no? And bonuses were frozen this year to the same value as last year.
 

Kjerstad’s bargaining position was not what it probably would have been if the season was played in it’s entirety. His advisors were held to what he has shown in the past. The Orioles’ projections models obviously were much higher on him.
 

Similarly, J.J. Bleday was not inline to be a top 5 pick last year at the beginning of the season, but he improved a great deal and was rewarded for his work by Miami. Andrew Benintendi was another who was not even consider publicly as even a third round pick before the 2015 season, but was picked 7th. Many college juniors put it together and rise rapidly. It happens all of the time. LH power is a rare commodity.
 

And personally, I think Burnitz would be Kjerstad’s floor. I believe he is a much better hitter, and a better fielder. For me, a better comp is Jay Bruce on the lower end. I could not think of a good higher end recent comp. I think Kjerstad and Bleday are strikingly similar players, though I think Kjerstad has a bit more raw power and a little better hit tool, but it’s close. Bleday is ranked #49 by BA, #28 by MLB Pipeline. 
 

I know...You don’t like the pick. 

Burnitz and Bruce are/were basically the same player.

 

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Come on now, his floor is he doesn't make the majors.

That's the floor for all draftees.  Even at 1/1 there are 3-4 guys who never made the majors and another ~10 who only had brief cups of coffee.

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

I think Jemile Weeks might be a comp for Austin Martin. Or maybe Richie Martin. Or Ryan Flaherty. And that would be very disappointing for A.M.

As for C_o_c's rejection of the Nick comp, Heston and he are both RFs picked in the first round of the Rule 4 draft by the Orioles...so there is a kind of comp. If you look at Nick's power numbers in the first few years of his career, they look a little lower than we hope for Kjerstad. And Nick's BA/OBA look higher than we may expect from HK. What we did not expect was Nick's power declining at a young age and his slugging percentage tumbling below .400 in his 29th year. Nick's power resurgence five years later at the age of 34 was also unpredictable. Might a better comp be Larry Sheets? Don't laugh young bucks: dude could stroke.

By the time the draft came around, I was fearing that the Orioles were going to pick Martin. The thought of Martin being a highly-touted prospect gone bust was palpable for me since he had marginal expectation of playing a premium position and projected to hit for below average power, especially considering the national media scouting services were promoting frozen-in-amber projections because of the unimaginable, shortened college season. I had tried to convince myself they would take Lacy instead. But a lot of us had heard rumors about Kjerstad and others, so I wasn't shocked like many of us were when the Orioles announced their first-round choice.

There is no "Elias love fest" going on here. Nor is there a "hate fest." My gut tells me that when it came to "BPA," the Orioles did not think it was Martin. I think they believed the BPA was Kjerstad. And if the economics adds nuance to the decision, that's fine. It doesn't mean that, in their eyes, Heston was not still their BPA.

Jay Bruce is another interesting name to consider. It also answers the question that @Sports Guy asked a few pages ago about low OBP guys hanging around. .315 is not under 300 But it’s still poor. Burnitz and Bruce are not bad baseball players, they just fell way short of who teams thought they would be. I remember Bruce being part of the discussion for some Orioles trade when he was with the Reds. Some guys here really wanted him! 
 

 

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Not trying to misquote you sir! I didn’t want to look back to respond.

Just to be clear, I have zero problem with how you characterized what I said, or your general argument.    My only issue is with your degree of certitude that Martin will turn out to be the much superior player, and some of the adjectives you’ve used to describe the Orioles’ decision to go the other direction.   

[DrungoHazewood]

50 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Jay Bruce is another interesting name to consider. It also answers the question that @Sports Guy asked a few pages ago about low OBP guys hanging around. .315 is not under 300 But it’s still poor. Burnitz and Bruce are not bad baseball players, they just fell way short of who teams thought they would be. I remember Bruce being part of the discussion for some Orioles trade when he was with the Reds. Some guys here really wanted him!

That describes most players who were highly regarded as amateurs.  Or even minor leaguers.  I'm sure the Mets were disappointed that they didn't get a Hall of Famer out of Burnitz, just one of the top few hundred players in the world.

[weams]

7 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

 

There is no "Elias love fest" going on here. Nor is there a "hate fest." My gut tells me that when it came to "BPA," the Orioles did not think it was Martin. I think they believed the BPA was Kjerstad. And if the economics adds nuance to the decision, that's fine. It doesn't mean that, in their eyes, Heston was not still their BPA.

Best available batter. I think they ruled out pitching. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Jay Bruce is another interesting name to consider. It also answers the question that @Sports Guy asked a few pages ago about low OBP guys hanging around. .315 is not under 300 But it’s still poor. Burnitz and Bruce are not bad baseball players, they just fell way short of who teams thought they would be. I remember Bruce being part of the discussion for some Orioles trade when he was with the Reds. Some guys here really wanted him! 

Bruce (19.6 rWAR) was drafted at 1:12 and Burnitz (19.9) at 1:17.    I’d say both did quite well for their draft slot.   Bruce was the 7th best player (by rWAR) ever to be drafted at 12, while Burnitz was the 5th best ever drafted at 17.   I don’t think either fell short of reasonable expectations at the time they were drafted.   

The big difference between the two is the expectations that built up while they were in the minors.    Bruce rose to be the no. 1 prospect in all of MLB (per both BA and BP), and you could say his 19.5 rWAR fell short of that expectation.    Burnitz was never ranked higher than 50th, and you’d gladly take 19.9 rWAR from the no. 50 prospect.   

The O’s sought Bruce when they were shopping Bedard, but the Reds said he was untouchable.    They supposedly did offer us a package that included Votto and Cueto, if I recall correctly.    

 

[Just Regular]

It is baking just 1 year ahead, but JJ Bleday feels like a decent Kjerstad comp, in a Barry Bonds of the SEC kind of way.

Vanderbilt's use of Martin spooked me.  Shortstops play SS.  Centerfielders play CF.  I know to some extent NCAA coaches like their baseball ninjas, but I hope for blue chips to be Ripken like fixtures at their position.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, OrioleDog said:

It is baking just 1 year ahead, but JJ Bleday feels like a decent Kjerstad comp, in a Barry Bonds of the SEC kind of way.

Vanderbilt's use of Martin spooked me.  Shortstops play SS.  Centerfielders play CF.  I know to some extent NCAA coaches like their baseball ninjas, but I hope for blue chips to be Ripken like fixtures at their position.

Ripken, who pitched in high school and played 274 games at 3B and 178 at SS in the minors?

[eddie83]

17 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

It is baking just 1 year ahead, but JJ Bleday feels like a decent Kjerstad comp, in a Barry Bonds of the SEC kind of way.

Vanderbilt's use of Martin spooked me.  Shortstops play SS.  Centerfielders play CF.  I know to some extent NCAA coaches like their baseball ninjas, but I hope for blue chips to be Ripken like fixtures at their position.

I have no fear of Martin playing the left side of the infield but if he can become a plus defender in CF or 2nd base with a high OBP that is a very valuable player.  

[Just Regular]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Ripken, who pitched in high school and played 274 games at 3B and 178 at SS in the minors?

Yea, verily

I remember reading James observe many of baseball's greatest players are also its most unusual players - while it isn't streak-level special, Cal kicking sand at the puny Defensive Spectrum fueled his greatness.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I have no fear of Martin playing the left side of the infield but if he can become a plus defender in CF or 2nd base with a high OBP that is a very valuable player.  

Yes but his value and rankings are based solely off of him being a SS.

If he can’t stay there (or even third), his value will drop.  If Martin was universally looked at as a second baseman or a CFer, the way people view him would be different?

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes but his value and rankings are based solely off of him being a SS.

If he can’t stay there (or even third), his value will drop.  If Martin was universally looked at as a second baseman or a CFer, the way people view him would be different?

Speaking for myself I liked his athleticism and high OBP. Corbin his manager said he was a CF/2nd. I know that limits him. 

Not sure if playing of the turf in Toronto will impact anything or not.