Stewart optioned

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I know this isn't the main focus of discussion here so I won't dwell on it, but I don't think that's remotely true.

Development league to the NBA?

[Il BuonO]

33 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think it was far more important that he OPS'd 1.093 on a 44-21 team where no one else got to .850.

Including Mountcastle???

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Il BuonO said:

Including Mountcastle???

Mountcastle didn't go to Florida State.

[Il BuonO]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mountcastle didn't go to Florida State.

Ha! My bad. But Stewart did OPS .958 at Norfolk last year.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In most cases completely unreasonable expectations.  Stewart, right now, is about an average #25 overall pick.  About 20 #25s (out of 55) never played in the majors for even a single game.  About 10 more had MLB careers below replacement level.  Mike Trout is the only #25 so far who's going to be in the Hall.  Only five players in that spot (less than 10%) had solid MLB careers (10+ WAR).

The Orioles have had two picks in that slot.  Stewart and Wayne Wilson ('83).  Wilson was out of baseball by the age of 22, having thrown less than 400 minor league innings to a 4.90 ERA.  The Nats took Seth Romero in '17 at #25, so far in 47 minor league innings in A ball and below he's 0-2 with a 4.37 and hasn't pitched since 2018.

The draft is an unusual thing.  You have to be a 90th or 95th percentile success story to reach a minimal level of acceptance.  To me calling someone better than 75% or 85% of his highly graded peers a failure and a mistake is strange.

What you are saying is that Stewart’s failure is OK because most 25th picks people fail.
I disagree. I think his failure is “not unexpected” but it can’t be called anything but a disappointment at this point. 
He may certainly turn it around, And remember it is an evolving Judgment, so he could certainly turn into a success but he’s not now.

Other people have failed more quickly, sure, but so what? Failed is failed. As I mentioned, Joey Rickard has had a better career.

Let me stress again, that his story is still being told, but college and minor league success mean nothing except Major league potential. Now he needs to produce.

Edited August 6, 2020 by Philip
Addendum

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I know this isn't the main focus of discussion here so I won't dwell on it, but I don't think that's remotely true.

Well I’m not sure how you would quantify that anyway, but it certainly reinforces that making the leap from AAA to the majors so hard that not many guys do it successfully.

Thats why we even have the term “AAAA” guy.

If only six out of 55 guys, Mike and the other five, have had meaningful careers, well, so what. Stewart was drafted to be Not be one of the failures. Suggesting right now that he might be isn’t strange at all. Actually, in terms of the ratio, it would be strange if he weren’t!
But unsurprising and disappointing can certainly go together.
Thank you for helping me beat this dead horse, I’ll see you in the game thread.

 

[Enjoy Terror]

I didn’t initially want to agree with the “mistake” person, but I thought about it it... if you sink significant money into opening a bar and it goes belly up within two years (as many food service establishments do), your lost investment would have been considered a mistake. Even if factors out of your control, predicting the future, are a consideration, losing the money better spent elsewhere would be a mistake.

And to an extent, I agree that the selection of a person, not just in the first round but before any other (e.g first pick vs second pick) sets the expectation that for the amount of money spent the selection is the most sure thing to recoup the outlay of cash. It’s a mistake to lose value in that way.

I think it gets muddy where you draw the line though; Matt Wieters was our first round pick, become an everyday catcher, several years of good use. But there are two schools of thought: he was worth 10 WAR or he was only worth 10 WAR. Was Matt Wieters a mistake? I bet you have people that will argue both sides just because of the expectations.

[DrungoHazewood]

14 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Development league to the NBA?

My immediate thought was Kwame Brown going directly from a rural Georgia high school to the Wizards' roster.  Most NBA players never play in the D league, and the D league didn't exist until recently. 

But there are lots of leagues/sports with no or limited minor league equivalents.  The MLB system is specifically set up to have six or seven moderate, discrete steps to get from amateur ball to the majors.  Just going from a (whatever they call a D2 school now) to the NBA or NFL has to be a bigger step than AAA to the majors.  Aren't there tennis players who go from playing high school to being matched up with Novak Djokovic in the early rounds of a tournament?

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

My immediate thought was Kwame Brown going directly from a rural Georgia high school to the Wizards' roster.  Most NBA players never play in the D league, and the D league didn't exist until recently. 

But there are lots of leagues/sports with no or limited minor league equivalents.  The MLB system is specifically set up to have six or seven moderate, discrete steps to get from amateur ball to the majors.  Just going from a (whatever they call a D2 school now) to the NBA or NFL has to be a bigger step than AAA to the majors.  Aren't there tennis players who go from playing high school to being matched up with Novak Djokovic in the early rounds of a tournament?

Since he specified professional sports I was trying to think of a jump in which the player was still a professional at the first step.  I'll readily agree that the jump from HS to Pro is a lot greater.

[Chuck A]

8 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

I didn’t initially want to agree with the “mistake” person, but I thought about it it... if you sink significant money into opening a bar and it goes belly up within two years (as many food service establishments do), your lost investment would have been considered a mistake. Even if factors out of your control, predicting the future, are a consideration, losing the money better spent elsewhere would be a mistake.

And to an extent, I agree that the selection of a person, not just in the first round but before any other (e.g first pick vs second pick) sets the expectation that for the amount of money spent the selection is the most sure thing to recoup the outlay of cash. It’s a mistake to lose value in that way.

I think it gets muddy where you draw the line though; Matt Wieters was our first round pick, become an everyday catcher, several years of good use. But there are two schools of thought: he was worth 10 WAR or he was only worth 10 WAR. Was Matt Wieters a mistake? I bet you have people that will argue both sides just because of the expectations.

Every player has many variables in their career arc after being drafted.  I consider the draft, in any sport, to be like playing the lottery.  Sometimes you win a little, most times you lose a little.  Rarely win the jackpot.  I'm in the Wieters camp, loved watching him play.  Can't wait to see AR play.  Heady, steady, defensive catchers who can hit?  Yes please.

[sportsfan8703]

Stewart at best is a DH. He’s looking like a mini Chris Davis but with no defensive skill. When you can’t hit the FB, you can’t play in the MLB. 

[Aristotelian]

18 hours ago, Philip said:

What you are saying is that Stewart’s failure is OK because most 25th picks people fail.
I disagree. I think his failure is “not unexpected” but it can’t be called anything but a disappointment at this point. 
He may certainly turn it around, And remember it is an evolving Judgment, so he could certainly turn into a success but he’s not now.

Other people have failed more quickly, sure, but so what? Failed is failed. As I mentioned, Joey Rickard has had a better career.

Let me stress again, that his story is still being told, but college and minor league success mean nothing except Major league potential. Now he needs to produce.

Would you agree with "acceptable failure"? Baseball is a game of failure! Just like statistical sample sizes, you have to take the long view with draft picks and player development, and failure is part of the game.