If only Elias hadn't traded the 11th best player in baseball (Bundy) for next to nothing

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Like what they got for Miguel Castro perhaps?

For example.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Ask me in four years how we did in that trade.    

So how about that Matusz trade?  

 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So how about that Matusz trade?  

 

Are you suggesting the two trades are comparable?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Are you suggesting the two trades are comparable?

Nope, I'm suggesting it has been four years so you should have had enough time to come to the same conclusion I came to in four minutes.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I wish they'd open the books so we know.  We do have a good inkling that in a non-COVID year their revenues are less than 40% of the Yankees'.  Behind by $400M.  So if the Angelos boys told me that I have $125M or $150M to do whatever with, from staff to players to drafting to building academies in Uruguay, I know I'd slash payroll down to nothing until I was good and ready to spend on this year's wins.  There are a heck of a lot of things I could do with $10M or $20M that make more long term impact than two or three extra wins in 2020 or 2021.

If you believe that money will be spent later! Sorry but I dont!

Also ..... The National TV money in a normal year is $130 Million

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2020/06/13/tv-money-gives-nfl-leg-up-if-fans-cant-fill-teams-coffers/111957448/

The only article I could find for MASN revenue said the O's got $54M while the Gnats got $77M ????

 

So thats 185 million before any MASN Profits, Memorabilia, tickets, concessions etc

 

This article claims that the net revenue in 2019 was $256 million

https://www.statista.com/statistics/196638/revenue-of-the-baltimore-orioles-since-2006/

 

So a $160 million annual payroll is still doable..... Next years payroll has an adjusted salary with deferrals of $39 million.

 

Are you suggesting that they will stuff $100 million away for later?

 

Based on that Idea .... How much has already been stuffed away by your estimate?

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Nope, I'm suggesting it has been four years so you should have had enough time to come to the same conclusion I came to in four minutes.

Well, you are quicker to judge than me, that is for sure.   And correct in that case.  

[Sports Guy]

Well, I certainly don’t think the Os are taking the 3M saved for Castro and putting it in some kind of “spend it later bank account”.

I would hope people don’t think that’s the case.

But that’s different than saying, don’t spend a lot of money on a mediocre product, especially when you have similar or better options coming up soon and can get a decent prospect back.  Again, that’s a no brainer.

Castro, like any mediocre reliever, could spike a good year or 2 but until he figures out command and control of his fastball, he will continue to be a mediocre guy.

[ThomasTomasz]

23 hours ago, Rojo13 said:

Let me start by saying I'm happy with the way the current season is going and by saying that I like Elias. 

But the way things are viewed on here drives me nuts. People act like Elias is some new age genius and have totally forgotten what Dan Duquette did for us. It does seem that the development work they are doing in Bowie and the analytics the pitchers/hitters have is a help but can we not at least pause for a moment and appreciate Dan Duquette? The dude was pretty good at what he did.

People talk about the increased depth of our minor league system but it seems to me that virtually all of the Orioles current players that everyone is excited about were brought in by Duquette: Mountcastle, Hays, Santander, Mullins, Kremer, Scott, Akin, Harvey,  Rodriguez, Means. Heck can't we even count Rutschman as a Duquette guy since Duquette gave us that awful year that resulted us in taking Rutschman as the consenus #1 overall pick? 

Plus last time I checked Duquette didn't trade the 11th best player in baseball away for almost nothing. 

I haven't seen much talk on here about Dylan Bundy. Is anyone besides me upset he's not on the team or that we didn't get way more for him in a trade?

Do people forget that he was the #4 overall pick in the draft and we traded him away for basically nothing? His 1.9 WAR is 11th best in baseball this year. Imagine if he was starting for us this year. I don't get why anyone would trade him  for what we got - other than to save money (and saving money and tanking this year is probably would be what I would have done as the GM as well). But if we're going to blame the trade on money,, do you not think Dan wanted to have more of an international presence? He was dealing with budgetary constraints as well.

But if the new management gets all the credit for the way things are going now, can we at least give them a little blame? They clearly could get A LOT more for Bundyu now.  It just seems to me that to trade Bundy when we did (unless ordered to by management) was not good.  Does anyone remember what we gave up to get Andy Miller for a 3-month rental? Imagine how much value Bundy would have now in a trade. Or imagine how much better our record would be if he was starting for us.

Now, in a normal year, the playoffs would be unfathomable for us and one might not have thought last winter that paying him say $3 million before we traded him near the deadline would result in an extra player worth at least $3 million but I do think it's interesting to think about. Clearly, analyzing the deal right now it looks horrific.

I'm not sure what the overall point of my post is. I guess it's mainly that I just want everyone to acknowledge that DD did a very good job for us. I thought about titling this topic "Can we all admit that Dan Duquette was a very good GM?" but went with the slightly more negative headline just to remind people of Bundy. I think Elias is good as well but don't like how so many people view things as either / or .

It's like Manny. I think he was a great player for the Orioles but I'm glad we didn't sign him for an extension.  I feel like fans should be able to appreciate both Duquette and Elias but it seems like many seem to think it's one or the other.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is a great post.  However, you are missing one key point.  You can have all of the analytics in the world telling you things, and unless you have a pitching coach who can relate to the player and communicate with them in a way that they understand it, it doesn't mean anything.  And there is a Grand Canyon sized difference between the caliber of pitching coach that Doug Brocail is when compared to Mickey Callaway.   In the same way that we ruined Jake Arrieta, I believe that Bundy was cooked for us as well.  

Also, analytics are not the be all, end all.  A lot of attention is paid to how Houston picked up Charlie Morton off the scrap heap and made him into a great TORP.  At the same time, their analytics blew it as it pertains to JD Martinez.  

[DrungoHazewood]

9 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

If you believe that money will be spent later! Sorry but I dont!

Also ..... The National TV money in a normal year is $130 Million

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2020/06/13/tv-money-gives-nfl-leg-up-if-fans-cant-fill-teams-coffers/111957448/

The only article I could find for MASN revenue said the O's got $54M while the Gnats got $77M ????

 

So thats 185 million before any MASN Profits, Memorabilia, tickets, concessions etc

 

This article claims that the net revenue in 2019 was $256 million

https://www.statista.com/statistics/196638/revenue-of-the-baltimore-orioles-since-2006/

 

So a $160 million annual payroll is still doable..... Next years payroll has an adjusted salary with deferrals of $39 million.

 

Are you suggesting that they will stuff $100 million away for later?

 

Based on that Idea .... How much has already been stuffed away by your estimate?

So how much do you think operating expenses are?  I'm well aware of the estimates that revenues last year were somewhere around $250M, but how much does it cost to run the organization?  Even on non-game days there are dozens if not hundreds of people doing stuff at the park, and there are non-payroll costs.

Forbes estimates that they turned a profit of $57M last year, but 3-4 years ago were losing money.  I don't know how much faith I have in either of those numbers, but you can't expect the owners to subsidize the team. With COVID the numbers are all different, and revenues much lower.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, billw76 said:

That line of 4.50 ERA is probably the same for starting pitchers as well. Teams aren't gonna give up a top prospect for a league average SP these days.

Starters have a higher ERA than relievers.  Let me rephrase, the same pitcher will have a higher ERA as a starter than a reliever.  So a starter with a 4.50 should be expected to be a reliever with an ERA under 4.00.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Doesnt work that way Sir!

You're assuming that because it helps your case that a full-on rebuild isn't necessary and they should have resigned Villar and have $100M payroll right now.

You also don't know what they've done with the money saved.  Did they spend it on other parts of the organization?  Or did they gold-plate all of the Angelos Boys' kitchen applicances?  Clearly you think it's the latter, but we just don't know.  Maybe we can get Dan Duquette to write a sleazy tell-all book, but then we might get justification that it's not all underhandedness and greed and we can't consider that.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was talking about Bundy.

Ahh, I thought we were still talking about Castro. 

But this is a good example.  They both have ERAs in the mid-4.00s, but clearly Bundy is a better pitcher because of the assumed (based on historicals) one-run gap between starters and relievers.

[Natty]

If you go by ERA... Bundy is the 3rd best starter in AL. 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You're assuming that because it helps your case that a full-on rebuild isn't necessary and they should have resigned Villar and have $100M payroll right now.

You also don't know what they've done with the money saved.  Did they spend it on other parts of the organization?  Or did they gold-plate all of the Angelos Boys' kitchen applicances?  Clearly you think it's the latter, but we just don't know.  Maybe we can get Dan Duquette to write a sleazy tell-all book, but then we might get justification that it's not all underhandedness and greed and we can't consider that.

I’m sure that your assumption that they will spend the saved money later is no less of an assumption 

 

I don’t believe they lost money on the 160 million payroll years.

 

in this article they claimed that the loss of the 6 games due to the riot costs the team $6 million in gate revenue based on $30 avg ticket price and an estimated $1.5 million for concessions, hats, programs etc, The interesting thing is they were using an average of $6.00 spent on these things by fans? They used $200,000 as the lost revenue for parking. 
 

I have been to many games since 1987 when I was old enough to drive. I don’t think I’ve ever got through a game spending only $6.00 back then . 

https://mashable.com/2015/05/04/the-cost-of-baltimores-safety-7-million-for-the-orioles/

I think that number is probably quite low....  A hot dog, fries, and a soda probably put the number closer to $15. I’m betting the beer drinking group pushes the number up considerably at $8 average beer costs.

In a season where they are good and the fans are coming they should be able to gross about $2 million per game.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Natty said:

If you go by ERA... Bundy is the 3rd best starter in AL. 

I know he's behind Kremer.