The offseason “elephant in the room”

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I do think Mancini will be offered and will accept the same salary he was due to make this year before going to arbitration as long as the Orioles reasonably thinks Mancini will be play most of 2020. 

the good news here is the Orioles are not going to be contenders in 2021, so they can afford to run Mancini out there if he's healthy enough and able to play at that major league level once again.

As for at bats, that's where it gets tricky and I'm assuming Davis will not be on the team next year (retire/release/DL'd all year with pothole injuries). 

The Orioles will need to find just about every day at bats for: 

Mancini 1B/RF/DH
Nunez DH/1B
Mountcastle 1B/LF
Stewart DH/RF/LF
Hays CF/LF
Santander RF/LF

That's six guys for 5 positions/DH. Mullins is a 4th outfielder and will need some at bats as well.

That's not including Yusniel Diaz who should be in consideration for everyday at bats at some point in 2021. If you add him in that's seven guys for five positions plus a 4th/5th outfielder in Mullins.

One thing to remember here the defense improves if you go with a Diaz (LF), Hay (CF, Santander (RF) Lineup at some point, but that means Mountcastle/Mancini/Nunez has to share 1B unless you are willing to watch the disaster of nunez trying to play 3B again.

The Orioles need to find a decent defensive 3Bman of the future though Jordan Westburg could be that guy, he's at least 2-3 years away most likely. 

I'd try to move one of Stewart or Nunez for a 3B if possible, but few teams have extra 3Bman's laying around if they do, they aren't trading them for DH types like Nunez or Stewart unless they are significant upgrade to their DH position.

I'd also float trading Pedro Severino if he has gained any value from this year's offensive output if he could bring back a 3B. 

Either way, unless it's certain Mancini will not be back in 2021, I see the orioles agreeing to the same salary he woud make this year and hopefully he'll be back playing. If not, he'll be placed on the 60-day DL and the Orioles would be able to recoup some of his contract back with insurance if he can't play at the major league level again.

Knowing how hard a worker and his heart, I wouldn't bet against Mancini coming back and being the player he was.

 

What company would insure a Mancini contract?

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Where's SG 1.0?  Not this watered down 2.0 version where he's afraid of stepping on toes and not saying what he really wants to mean.

C'mon, SG, let it rip!  You want to get rid of the cancer guy so Diaz can shine.  

Lol.

I already said I wouldn’t let PR be the reason I keep him.

Im only keeping him if other moves are made and you feel like he will play come back and play at a high level.

 

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Lol.

I already said I wouldn’t let PR be the reason I keep him.

Im only keeping him if other moves are made and you feel like he will play come back and play at a high level.

 

 

If you want to get rid of him, you've gotta let him play some next year to show that he's playing at a good level before shipping him off.  WHICH I KNOW YOU WANNA DO, SG!!! YOU LOVE THE TRADES!!!!!11

Like I said before, I think this team has had a harder time cutting bait with Davis and I won't believe it until I see it.  I felt at this time last year that there was no way Davis would be back for 2020.  And here we are.  

So Davis obviously has to go.  I'd look to move Nunez and Rio Ruiz, too.  They're both a bit redundant.  And I'd have Mountcastle/Mancini between 1B/DH with an outfield of Hays/Mullins/Santander.  I don't think Mullins is a long term CF solution by any stretch and it's only a matter of time before Hays goes down with an injury.  

[Sports Guy]

The idea of having Mancini come back to potentially get value for him is something that crossed my mind.  However, will anyone trade for him (or at least give up value for him) even if he is having a good 2021 season?  
 

If I was a team, I would be very wary about trading for him, at least trading real value for him.

[Sports Guy]

Ruiz should be gone next year.  Whatever way that happens, he shouldn’t be an Oriole in 2021.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

What do you do with Mancini?

This is a pretty crucial decision.

Moves will obviously be made but there will still be plenty of roster questions.  
 

Will room be made for Diaz?  Will Mountcastle play first or LF?  How do you handle DH?  
 

Mancini is a factor in all of these decisions, not to mention do you want to pay him 5-8M next year  coming off of him kicking cancers butt?  It’s a risk, for sure.

I don’t envy Elias here.  Obviously, you have to see where he is strength wise and stuff like that to really make this decision but once you have that confirmation, what do you do?  

First, I don’t think the range is $5-8 mm.    $5 mm is about the ceiling (Mancini was due to earn $4.75 mm this year.)   For example, Alex Cobb earned $4 mm in his first Arb year, missed that whole season with TJ surgery that cropped up that spring, and got paid $4 mm the following year.   I think that’s pretty typical when a player misses the whole season due to injury or other physical reasons.   

$5 mm is not pocket change when you are uncertain how strongly Mancini will come back, assuming he’s able to do so.     But, the upside is pretty good too.   And yes, the O’s have a bunch of other 1B/DH/OF types, but none of them except possibly Mountcastle has Mancini’s upside.   I think that, along with PR, team morale and other “soft factors” will lead the O’s to bring him back and take their chances.    Whether they try to make a move or two to alleviate the crowding at 1B/DH/OF will be interesting to watch.   
 

[luismatos4prez]

I'd hope they could sign Mancini to a ~2M guarantee with easy to reach PA incentives to get him back over 5M if he is healthy and playing.

Hays, Mullins, and Santander is my opening day OF next year. Mountcastle and Mancini at 1B/DH. Stewart on the bench. McKenna and Diaz at AAA to start.

I would trade Nunez, DFA Ruiz, and sign another major league infielder. Bring Schoop or Villar back or Jurickson Profar maybe. Move Alberto to 3B.

CF Mullins

1B Mountcastle

RF Santander

DH Mancini

2B Schoop

C Severino

SS Iglesias

3B Alberto

LF Hays

That's a ML lineup and a very strong defensive team. Of course, getting Schoop or Profar isn't likely but I'm having fun over here. And is a 60M ML payroll really too much to ask?

[Aristotelian]

If you think Diaz is a lock to contribute, I wonder if you could look to trade Stewart. Has he done enough to establish some trade value? The BA looks bad and defense is questionable, but he has put up close to 1 WAR with a .380 OBP and obvious pop. Is he a better trade candidate than Nunez? 

[Dipper9]

Ya know something?  Fans get upset all the time that there is no loyalty in baseball anymore.  (or any sports).  How could Manny not try to work out a long term deal with the O's?  Booooooo Manny.  How could Moose leave and sign with the Yankees?  Booooo Mussina.  

And yet here is someone on the Hangout.  The best of the best.  Starting a thread about releasing a solid player who is coming off cancer treatment.  Well you know what?  Boooooooooooooo Hangout for this even being a thread. 

[Moose Milligan]

18 minutes ago, Dipper9 said:

Ya know something?  Fans get upset all the time that there is no loyalty in baseball anymore.  (or any sports).  How could Manny not try to work out a long term deal with the O's?  Booooooo Manny.  How could Moose leave and sign with the Yankees?  Booooo Mussina.  

And yet here is someone on the Hangout.  The best of the best.  Starting a thread about releasing a solid player who is coming off cancer treatment.  Well you know what?  Boooooooooooooo Hangout for this even being a thread. 

In fairness, the poster who started this thread doesn't care about loyalty in baseball.  

[wildcard]

I think Mancini signs for a 3.8M base with incentives based on plate appearances.  Incentives that would reach 7M for 600 PAs.  I don't think he can be cut further than 3.8m under CBA rules.  If Mancini is healthy and productive he is worth 7M.   He can go on the IL or he has options and can go to Norfolk if he is not productive in worse case.   He is the O's 1B/DH.  Doesn't see a day in the OF.

Davis is the O's 26th man.  Does not play except as a defensive replacement.   And like Tony said the O's find ways to get him on the IL.

Santander has a COF spot.  

Diaz starts the year at AAA.  When the team promotes him he plays most days at the other COF spot.

Neither Mullins nor Hays has proven they are an everyday CF.   They share CF until one of them wins the job full time.   Until Diaz is promoted Hays can play one of the corners when Mullins is in CF.

Mountcastle is a DH/1B who can play some LF.   He plays 1B to keep Mancini rested. If Mancini is not healthy  Mountacastle is the 1B.   He plays LF when someone needs  a break.   But he gets most of his at bats at DH in 2021. If Mancini is traded sometime in the future Mountcastle is the heir apparent at 1B.

Stewart is proving in his time this season that he is a defensive liability.  His best position is DH or as a fill-in when someone is injured.  He has options.

Nunez needs to be traded his off season because there are not enough at bats for him next season.

Diaz, Hays/Mullins, Santander are the team's best defensive OF.  Mancini if healthy is the teams best defensive 1B that can  also hit.

I see a lot of movement in the infield this off season but Nunez is the only one I see leaving the O's this off season of the players discussed in this post.

That is my best guess.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I think Mancini signs for a 3.8M base with incentives based on plate appearances.  Incentives that would reach 7M for 600 PAs.  I don't think he can be cut further than 3.8m under CBA rules.  If Mancini is healthy and productive he is worth 7M.   He can go on the IL or he has options and can go to Norfolk if he is not productive in worse case.   He is the O's 1B/DH.  Doesn't see a day in the OF.

Davis is the O's 26th man.  Does not play except of defensive replacement.   And like Tony said the O's find ways to get him on the IL.

Santander has a COF spot.  

Diaz starts the year at AAA.  When the team promotes him he plays most days at the other COF spot.

Neither Mullins nor Hays has proven they are an everyday CF.   They share CF until one of them wins the job full time.   Until Diaz is promoted Hays can play one of the corners when Mullins is in CF.

Mountcastle is a DH/1B who can play some LF.   He plays 1B to keep Mancini rested. If Mancini is not healthy  Mountacastle is the 1B.   He plays LF when someone needs  break.   But he gets most of his at bats at DH in 2021. If Mancini is traded some time in the future Mountcastle is the heir apparent at 1B.

Stewart is proving in his time this season that he is a defensive liability.  His best position is DH or as a fill-in what someone is injured.  He has options.

Nunez needs to be traded his off season because there are not enough at bats for him next season.

Diaz, Hays/Mullins, Santander are the team's best defensive OF.  Mancini if healthy is the teams best defensive 1B that can  also hit.

I see a lot of movement in the infield this off season but Nunez is the only one I see leaving the O's this off season of the players discussed in this post.

 

He can't be cut more than 20% in arbitration.  He can sign for whatever deal he wants to.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

If you think Diaz is a lock to contribute, I wonder if you could look to trade Stewart. Has he done enough to establish some trade value? The BA looks bad and defense is questionable, but he has put up close to 1 WAR with a .380 OBP and obvious pop. Is he a better trade candidate than Nunez? 

No because Stewart has options, offers the team some depth and  is not arbitration eligible.  Nunez has no options and is arbitration eligible.  Its better for the O's to trade Nunez.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He can't be cut more than 20% in arbitration.  He can sign for whatever deal he wants to.

Do the math.  3.8 is 80% of 4.75.

[now]

I think there's another animal in the room as well... the injury factor for all those players competing for spots.

Especially considering most of them have recent or frequent injury histories (besides the unknown of Mancini's readiness or level of play on return).

It's kind of like, you're happy to have at least 7-8 viable candidates for your 5 starting pitching spots.