Who are the # 7 and #8 Prospects?

[Tony-OH]

Who are the # 7 and #8 Prospects?

[NCRaven]

Well, I went Baumann and Diaz.  If Akin truly has this much reliever risk, I can’t put him over a pitcher like Baumann that still has a starter profile.  And I can’t move Westburg ahead of Diaz before he’s played a game or faced a professional pitcher.

[Sports Guy]

Could make a case for any of these.

I went with Baumann and Diaz.

I actually think Kremer should be the 3rd pitcher, so some combo of Diaz and Westburg is actually what I think should be the answer here but I think Tony likes Baumann, so I’m going him here as my guess.

[ChosenOne21]

Given the options in the #5/#6 poll, I'd be pretty surprised if Baumann isn't #7. So that means it's either Baumann and Diaz or Baumann and Westburg. I think it has to be Baumann and Diaz. Yeah, Westburg has a ceiling you can dream on, but he hasn't played a professional game. Diaz is major league ready and we heard good things about his Bowie camp

[Tony-OH]

One thing to keep in mind, I value starters and every day 1st division players over guys who carry reliever or 4th outfield/utility risk. If a pitcher has a better chance of sticking as a starter they have a good chance of being ranked over a guy I think is heading to the pen, unless the ceiling of that plater still remains high and they still have a chance at sticking in a starter's role (Hall).

I will be honest, I had #7 over Hall at one point before deciding that Hall's overall stuff, and the development of the change this year in camp, were worthy of keeping at #6 despite the concerns over control.

Another thing to take into consideration is that it's a tough year to ding too much for a lack of experience due to the minor league season being cancelled and the amateur seasons cut short.

I'm taking some educated "guesses" on the new draft picks this year and trying to not dock them as much as I would if they didn't have any pro time. It's not the easiest year to do rankings for sure.

[Frobby]

Well, this series of combos is very interesting.   I’m pretty sure Baumann is at 7 based on him being included in the 5/6 polls and Tony’s statement that 5, 6 and 7 are all really close.   I like Akin but I don’t think he’s that close to the 5/6 guys.   Westburg shows up in three of the pairings but I haven’t seen him ranked that high elsewhere.    So, I’m going with Baumann/Diaz.    

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I did not read much about Diaz at the Bowie camp this year but if it was very positive then I guess I could see him here.

Matt Blood had very positive things to say about his talent, but reinforced the impression that he isn’t consistent in his focus.    

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

One thing to keep in mind, I value starters and every day 1st division players over guys who carry reliever or 4th outfield/utility risk. If a pitcher has a better chance of sticking as a starter they have a good chance of being ranked over a guy I think is heading to the pen, unless the ceiling of that plater still remains high and they still have a chance at sticking in a starter's role (Hall).

I will be honest, I had #7 over Hall at one point before deciding that Hall's overall stuff, and the development of the change this year in camp, were worthy of keeping at #6 despite the concerns over control.

Another thing to take into consideration is that it's a tough year to ding too much for a lack of experience due to the minor league season being cancelled and the amateur seasons cut short.

I'm taking some educated "guesses" on the new draft picks this year and trying to not dock them as much as I would if they didn't have any pro time. It's not the easiest year to do rankings for sure.

For the players who were at the alternate site, I’ve really been appreciating the intel you’ve been able to glean and report from that. Some of it echoes what Matt Blood and others have said publicly, but there’s more detail in these reports such as the analysis of Hall’s curve and change-up.

Pretty soon you’ll be dealing mostly with players who weren’t in the majors or at the Bowie camp.   Really hard to see how you can shuffle the order of those guys compared to where they ranked in relation to each other last year.   But we do have a fair number of new players to plug into the list, so that will be interesting.   

[Tony-OH]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

For the players who were at the alternate site, I’ve really been appreciating the intel you’ve been able to glean and report from that. Some of it echoes what Matt Blood and others have said publicly, but there’s more detail in these reports such as the analysis of Hall’s curve and change-up.

Pretty soon you’ll be dealing mostly with players who weren’t in the majors or at the Bowie camp.   Really hard to see how you can shuffle the order of those guys compared to where they ranked in relation to each other last year.   But we do have a fair number of new players to plug into the list, so that will be interesting.   

I'll give you a hint, if I have no new reports on guys they are basically staying in the same order as last year, but with adjustments due to the inclusion of the new players that have come into the system via the draft or trade. 

The high school draft picks were the hardest to figure out where to drop them because they have nice ceilings but extreme risk profiles. Basically I just decided to put them ahead of guys I definitely think are Utility guys, 4th/5th outfielders, relievers or potential starter's that carry a lot of risk due to being far away. At the end of the day, they both got $1.5 million or higher signing bonuses which puts them as high 2nd round talents.

The thing is, maybe they would have become 1st round talents if they had full senior years? Who knows? I know I liked the power I saw from Mayo and his arm at 3B is pretty special, but we don't know how the swing will hold up in the pros. He could be in the top ten or off the list next year depending on how he does against pro competition. As for Baumler, huge, huge unknown but he has a Zach Davies kind a of vibe to him from the reports of a kid who really knows how to pitch at a young age. 

 

 

[hoosiers]

So, MLB.com has the remainder of our Top 10 as Westburg, Diaz, Baumann, Kremer. IMO, the first three names (7/8/9) are the rights ones for the OH to focus on.  Thinking out loud, I would take Baumann and his AA performance and mid-rotation upside over a late first round pick (Westburg) and Diaz. 

Westburg v Diaz is a much tougher question.  I will lean Westburg and join the RZ note above for Baumann/Westburg here.  Diaz has been really slowed by injuries, but I have seen him play multiple games and he does things so effortlessly when he does try.  He shows plus speed, plus defensive ability IMO and other nice skills.  Diaz is not a full  hustle all the time guy IMO and plays to his competition.  It would not surprise me if this summer's alternate camp was the best competition that Diaz has played against and that he did well there.  Given a choice of Diaz or a late first round pick like Westburg, I will split hairs and choose Westburg.

[ChrisP]

I couldn't pick Diaz this high. He's been a .265 hitter for 2+ years in the Bal system and his plate discipline isn't great. I think this is telling year as he turned 24 on 10/7. 

[HowAboutThat]

I went back and read up on Westburg. I think he’s ahead of Diaz both in overall potential and in  having what we need. Tony seems down on both Akin and Diaz( sad face emoji) So I went Baumann Westburg.

[wildcard]

I have to figure Baumann season ending injury into his placement.  The O's have said its not serious but an elbow injury is an elbow  injury even if it is not structural.   No way to know if Baumann or Akin end up as relievers.    Westburgs all out style makes it more likely that is reaches his potential over Diaz inconsistent play.  I go Westburg/Diaz.    I am grading on future ceiling more than who reaches the major first.

[wildcard]

49 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Sounds like you're going ceiling on Westburg/Diaz and floor on Baumann/Akin.  Akin has made it to the majors as a starter with a chance to stay a starter.  Most guys drafted at Westburg's spot don't even make the majors.  I respect the rankings if he's in this pairing but I don't agree.  Not one professional AB yet and he's a huge unknown.  I would have Akin and Kremer ahead of anyone drafted this year besides Kerjstad.

MLB.com has Westburg at 7 ahead of Diaz, Baumann,  Akin and Kremer.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles/

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I have to figure Baumann season ending injury into his placement.  The O's have said its not serious but an elbow injury is an elbow  injury even if it is not structural.   No way to know if Baumann or Akin end up as relievers.    Westburgs all out style makes it more likely that is reaches his potential over Diaz inconsistent play.  I go Westburg/Diaz.    I am grading on future ceiling more than who reaches the major first.

I am influenced by the fact that Fangraphs has Vavra several spots above Westburg.    Of course, they also have both above Diaz by several spots.   But I liked some of the reports on Diaz from camp.   So, I went with him.   Won’t be shocked if Tony didn’t.