Jose Iglesias traded to Angels.

[LookinUp]

So Roll Tide, do you think after 1500 ABs, better than average league stats and Elias' comments that he would have been in AAA but for the injury, coupled with a Covid season that didn't happen, that Diaz should still start in AA?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Different Regime .... The O's including Showalter had pipedreams of contending! Elias is still subtracting and making no qualms about where they are in the process. Look ...I get you guys dont care about the clock.... I'm sure ME does!

I said I would send Diaz to AA and ask me to give me those results. He's never played a game at AAA and he missed all of 2020 like most minor leaguers

I care about the clock, but only to an extent.    I wouldn’t hold anyone back until 2022 if they are ready at mid-2021.    But, I wouldn’t start someone in the majors on Opening Day even if they were ready.   

Particularly as to Rutschman, I feel like catchers only have so many years in their legs and I wouldn’t spend one of those years in the minors if they’re ready for the majors.  I am not saying, sight unseen, that he is ready, despite some of the hype we’ve heard lately.  But let’s say it’s late June and it’s very evident he is ready — at that point, I’d like to see him getting major league experience.   Is that “wasted” in a losing season?   I don’t think so, because it hastens the time when he’ll be at the peak of experience and physical ability.    
 

[scOtt]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

I think this is the real key. The Orioles need to find playing time for Stewart and Mullins to see what they have in them. If Mancini is able to go next year, that pushes Mountcastle back to LF with Hays in CF and Santander in RF. That leaves Stewart DHing and Mullins as the 4th outfielder. Diaz should start the year in AAA and if playing time arises through injury or poor performance, as long as he's playing ok, he should be the next up for a shot. 

I agree with you and Frobby, circumstances rather than any actual numbers threshold. And I think the bolded is the best and simplest way to phrase it. Next man up.

[Roll Tide]

45 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't think it would be shortsighted to rely on traditional counting stats to determine if a player is worthy of promotion?

why even have an analytics department?

I live in a world where you prove you deserve a promotion. Producing at your current role is the indicator. Most players produce less at the majors than they did in the minors....Notice I said most! Analytics helps and I'm happy we have them. But they stats are the stats and why think a guy is ready to do better at the majors than he's done at AA? .262 is pretty mediocre. What is it about Bowie that would lead you to believe that he'd do better at the majors.

Scenario ..... its 2021 in July and Diaz is hitting .260/.315/750 at AA. Why do you think he'd be better against MLB pitching? Analystics? I'm pretty sure they are using the same data in the minors now right?

[Roll Tide]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Two milion?  You better check again.

OH ... 15.5 ... Thanks for helping make my point

[Roll Tide]

41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You are right..it’s not the answer I’m looking for because it’s not an answer to the question you were asked.

If I ask you, what is your favorite color and you tell me a banana, that is an answer and it’s not one I’m looking for..that doesn’t mean in insulting you, it just means that trying to discuss this with you when you clearly don’t want to answer the questions and you want your agenda is a waste of time.  

Bananas are yellow right?       https://www.crayola.com/explore-colors/banana-mania.aspx

 

[LookinUp]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

What is it about Bowie that would lead you to believe that he'd do better at the majors.

Context.

He hit very well in spells in Bowie, but tended to get hurt and start slowly when he came back. So,  his cumulative stats MAY not be an indicator of his true talent. Additionally, the coaches/management see him and have the modern equipment to better evaluate that question (e.g., his true talent, expected future performance) than "old" stats like batting average in the context of injuries might indicate.

With that said, I'm not convinced that his true talent actually matches his original hype when signed by the Dodgers or traded to the O's. Tony's write-ups raise serious questions in that regard, so I don't think you're wrong to want to see some performance before promoting him. But I suspect the people you're arguing with in this thread actually agree about that point.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I live in a world where you prove you deserve a promotion. Producing at your current role is the indicator. Most players produce less at the majors than they did in the minors....Notice I said most! Analytics helps and I'm happy we have them. But they stats are the stats and why think a guy is ready to do better at the majors than he's done at AA? .262 is pretty mediocre. What is it about Bowie that would lead you to believe that he'd do better at the majors.

Scenario ..... its 2021 in July and Diaz is hitting .260/.315/750 at AA. Why do you think he'd be better against MLB pitching? Analystics? I'm pretty sure they are using the same data in the minors now right?

You missed my point.

Traditional counting stats may not show actual skill or ability in a way that a deeper look might.

Maybe a player's slugging is impeded by the home stadium?  Maybe the ball used in the majors would benefit a player with a good launch angle?  Maybe a player gets called out on borderline pitches that ML umps won't miss?  Maybe it is something as simple as an unlucky BABIP.  You going to not promote a guy because his slash line is poor when his BABIP is 220?

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

OH ... 15.5 ... Thanks for helping make my point

I like things to be factually accurate. 
 

I don't think Daiz would be a good target for an early, below market extension.

[Number5]

21 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Different situation ..... Mountcastle hit .312/.344/.527 in 544 at bats in 2019 at AAA. He was clearly ready and I'm not sure how you think the Bowie time impacted that. He started at the Bowie camp only because there was no AAA. He started at the Bowie camp to delay the clock.

Either I've done a poor job of making my point about the orioles' view of the camp at Bowie in 2020 or you have missed the point completely.  Either way, there is no point continuing this, as  it is clear that you have your mind made up that everyone will be assigned to their 2019 levels.  That's fine, you are welcome to your opinion.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Number5 said:

Either I've done a poor job of making my point about the orioles' view of the camp at Bowie in 2020 or you have missed the point completely.  Either way, there is no point continuing this, as  it is clear that you have your mind made up that everyone will be assigned to their 2019 levels.  That's fine, you are welcome to your opinion.

Makes you wonder why they even bothered doing it.

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t know why you keep saying this.  It’s obvious that if he doesn’t perform, he doesn’t come up.  There is no need to mention the same thing over and over and over again. 
 

This is like saying, if you don’t breathe, you will die.  We get it.  
 

That’s not the issue being discussed.

And btw the term “rushed” is a fallacy.

I’m Sports Guy and I have to be able to declare victory! We get it!

[Roll Tide]

17 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Either I've done a poor job of making my point about the orioles' view of the camp at Bowie in 2020 or you have missed the point completely.  Either way, there is no point continuing this, as  it is clear that you have your mind made up that everyone will be assigned to their 2019 levels.  That's fine, you are welcome to your opinion.

I didn’t say everyone will....Only that is what I would do!

[Roll Tide]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Makes you wonder why they even bothered doing it.

It’s not the same as playing competitive games. Certainly it was better than nothing, plus it was a placeholder in case rostered players tested positive and a replacement was required. 

[Roll Tide]

28 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Context.

He hit very well in spells in Bowie, but tended to get hurt and start slowly when he came back. So,  his cumulative stats MAY not be an indicator of his true talent. Additionally, the coaches/management see him and have the modern equipment to better evaluate that question (e.g., his true talent, expected future performance) than "old" stats like batting average in the context of injuries might indicate.

With that said, I'm not convinced that his true talent actually matches his original hype when signed by the Dodgers or traded to the O's. Tony's write-ups raise serious questions in that regard, so I don't think you're wrong to want to see some performance before promoting him. But I suspect the people you're arguing with in this thread actually agree about that point.

Noted thanks! Isn’t that equipment available all throughout the organization by now? If not that’s a problem in itself.