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2021 WAR Projections by Fangraphs


TommyPickles

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6 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Always been more of a Baseball Reference guy myself, but this is pretty interesting:

https://twitter.com/mike_petriello/status/1336346948161466377/photo/1

 

Thoughts? I'm surprised they're projecting 2-WAR from our 3B...

 

Fangraphs does its projections by averaging Steamer and ZiPS.   The ZiPS projections for the Orioles haven’t been published yet, so at the moment they are only using Steamer, which projects Ruiz at .251/.321/.427.    That BA and OBP are wildly optimistic IMO.  BB-ref uses Marcel, which projects .232/.309/402.    That is much more realistic IMO.   It will be interesting to see what ZiPS says when it is published.   

Petriello really should have waited until ZiPS was fully published.   Right now projections for 15 of the 30 teams have been released, so his chart must be based on Steamer for half the teams and Steamer/ZiPS average for the other half of the teams.   Apples and oranges.   
 

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54 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fangraphs does its projections by averaging Steamer and ZiPS.   The ZiPS projections for the Orioles haven’t been published yet, so at the moment they are only using Steamer, which projects Ruiz at .251/.321/.427.    That BA and OBP are wildly optimistic IMO.  BB-ref uses Marcel, which projects .232/.309/402.    That is much more realistic IMO.   It will be interesting to see what ZiPS says when it is published.   

Petriello really should have waited until ZiPS was fully published.   Right now projections for 15 of the 30 teams have been released, so his chart must be based on Steamer for half the teams and Steamer/ZiPS average for the other half of the teams.   Apples and oranges.   
 

Very interesting. And I'd agree that BB-ref's prediction of a .711 OPS for Ruiz sounds more likely than the .749 OPS predicted by Steamer.

Also, Fangraphs predicts the second-most apperances at third will go to Rylan Bannon. They're forecasting 105 PA and a .245/.318/.385/.703 line for him. They seem to like his glove a lot more than Ruiz's too.

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