Trezza: Here's what Orioles are eyeing at Meetings

[Philip]

40 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think it takes building a farm system and picking your spots in free agency. The Orioles really haven’t had a good farm system, I mean from top to bottom since the 70s. I’m fine with being patient ...short cuts lead to more of the same.

I certainly agree with that, but what do you need to see that will trigger the next stage in the process, which is actively trying to win? We are adding international players, we have reworked scouting and infrastructure, and our system is I think top 12 by now? Maybe to 10?

Remember a lot of progress was obtained merely by no longer doing dumb things.

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

I certainly agree with that, but what do you need to see that will trigger the next stage in the process, which is actively trying to win? We are adding international players, we have reworked scouting and infrastructure, and our system is I think top 12 by now? Maybe to 10?

Remember a lot of progress was obtained merely by no longer doing dumb things.

I think he’s waiting for more guys to be ready. The pitchers are starting to show and yes Mountcastle is here. But, I don’t see any other position players beating down the door.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

What's the point? Pretty much any way you slice it you are arguing that the Os should just spend money for the sake of spending money. It's also early December. Pretty much no one is making moves yet. They very well could sign a replacement for Iglesias who ends up being even better than him. He's already 1-0 when it comes to upgrading the SS position from the year before. Personally, and this is an unpopular decision now, I would rather watch the younger guys in our system get playing time than a one year FA. Iglesias was fun to watch last year but I was personally more interested in Santander, Mountcastle, Hays, Akin, Kremer, Scott and Harvey. 

I have already made the point..several times.  And in no way am I saying not to play the young players.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Define “win?”

I’m not being contentious, I’m asking what you would consider a successful season.

I think that Mike would like to win as many games as possible without interrupting his plan., And he’s not going to make any trades or moves that will mean the difference between 65 wins and 75 wins, Because in doing so it will jeopardize our ability to get to between 85 and 90 in ‘22.

That’s what I think Mike is thinking. I personally would like to see another 10 or 12 game improvement, and I think we can see that without jeopardizing the future.

What would you like to see?

At no point have I said to do anything to jeopardize the long term of the club.  I have been very clear about that.

And a successful season in 2021 will be defined by the development and improvement of the young talent in the organization.

[Sports Guy]

56 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think it takes building a farm system and picking your spots in free agency. The Orioles really haven’t had a good farm system, I mean from top to bottom since the 70s. I’m fine with being patient ...short cuts lead to more of the same.

 

24 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I can see your point, I just disagree, in general terms in the Baltimore market. Spending money on a veteran player like Iglesias makes sense to shore up the defense for your young pitching and to provide an example/mentor for younger players, especially the younger Latin players. Spending a small amount of money on a veteran starter, or a reliever for that matter, helps provide an example for the daily routines and such for the younger pitchers. It also eats innings to stabilize things and perhaps you can build some value for later trades of that veteran, as they did with Milone. These were astute value-based low cost acquisitions that enabled them to properly develop young players at the major league level more efficiently. It also enabled them to see others perform and see what they have in those players to best determine current and future values. They were able to put many players in a position to be successful, which is what development should be about. If they did not have the Davis and Cobb contracts, this might be a consideration to me. But the Davis contract, in particular, is an albatross of the highest order.

I think they can find very talented players that are low cost and help them improve to the point that some may become major league players. Look at all of the former waiver claims and low cost acquisitions that have come through in the last year. Many of the players we have acquired were once high draft picks or expensive international signings. Tanking sucks for most fans, but it is a proven strategy to build up a talent base fairly quickly. 

The Orioles have diverted much of their budget to improving the infrastructure of the organization. Whether it be capital improvements in structures and facilities, technological advances, more staff and coaches in the development pipeline, or international players and development, they have had much needed improvements in all of those areas thanks to the diversion of money they had been spending on the major league team in an ill-advised era from 2016-2018.

Being a "decent team' means mediocre and caught in between. Drafting consistently around 15-25 brings you a lot less talent in the rule 4 draft. We can make up for that in the international market, but we are not there yet. It is hard to root for a mediocre team, I'm personally sick of that, "Yay, we are the third or fourth best team in the AL East." That sucks!

I think Elias is doing a great job! He is transparent for a GM. I find that refreshing. It is always about the money, sure. Owners are in the business to make money. And I believe they will spend responsibly when the team is ready to contend. 

Once you get past the top 3 picks or so, there is very little historical difference in career WAR between a top 10 pick and the rest of the first round.  The only things being the worst team in the league guarantees you are the #1 pick and a higher draft allotment.  
 

Everything else in terms of rebuilding is the same for every other team.  

[Philip]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

At no point have I said to do anything to jeopardize the long term of the club.  I have been very clear about that.

And a successful season in 2021 will be defined by the development and improvement of the young talent in the organization.

Well if that’s how you define a successful season, then by definition there’s no reason to spend money on Any free agents more significant than guys like Tommy Milone.

And it’s really early in the off-season, we don’t know but that he is going to bring in a few of those guys between now and April.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well if that’s how you define a successful season, then by definition there’s no reason to spend money on Any free agents more significant than guys like Tommy Milone.

And it’s really early in the off-season, we don’t know but that he is going to bring in a few of those guys between now and April.

Well that’s not true either.

The long term good of this franchise is predicated on the existing talent.  There is no disputing that.  Therefore, those players being healthy and developing is what will define a success or not.

That being said, you can still put a more competitive product on the field and win more games to get fans interested again. You can easily do that without jeopardizing any future of this team, blocking players, etc..and with so many players likely to accept cheap deals this year, you should be taking advantage of that.

Even the Royals just spent 17M on Santana.  I’m not saying the Os should have done that but KC didn’t just make a bunch of money in 2020 and they aren’t positioned to win but they want to provide a better on field product. That’s what the Os should be doing.

[Jammer7]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Once you get past the top 3 picks or so, there is very little historical difference in career WAR between a top 10 pick and the rest of the first round.  The only things being the worst team in the league guarantees you are the #1 pick and a higher draft allotment.  
 

Everything else in terms of rebuilding is the same for every other team.  

I am aware of the historical data, but that implies that all teams are equal in terms of their ability to evaluate and develop players. For once in my lifetime, the Orioles have an advantage in that area. A smart team plays to its strengths. In a short time, the international market will provide the higher end talent we would miss in the rule 4 draft when the team begins making competitive strides. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Jammer7 said:

I am aware of the historical data, but that implies that all teams are equal in terms of their ability to evaluate and develop players. For once in my lifetime, the Orioles have an advantage in that area. A smart team plays to its strengths. In a short time, the international market will provide the higher end talent we would miss in the rule 4 draft when the team begins making competitive strides. 

So, if the Os are so much better evaluation (and btw, there is zero evidence of that right now), it won’t matter where they draft in the first round.

[Philip]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well that’s not true either.

The long term good of this franchise is predicated on the existing talent.  There is no disputing that.  Therefore, those players being healthy and developing is what will define a success or not.

That being said, you can still put a more competitive product on the field and win more games to get fans interested again. You can easily do that without jeopardizing any future of this team, blocking players, etc..and with so many players likely to accept cheap deals this year, you should be taking advantage of that.

Even the Royals just spent 17M on Santana.  I’m not saying the Os should have done that but KC didn’t just make a bunch of money in 2020 and they aren’t positioned to win but they want to provide a better on field product. That’s what the Os should be doing.

I think you’re contradicting yourself. On one hand you say, “the Royals just spent $17 million on a guy who won’t help them because they aren’t positioned to win. Then you say, “I’m not saying that we should do that” and then it sure seems like you say exactly that they should do that.

No. They shouldn’t be spending $17 million on guys who won’t make a meaningful difference in the team. I’m not going to be excited by anybody except our own developing players( Sisco and Stewart excepted. I’m happy to send them off) and maybe another Iglesias or two.

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, Philip said:

I think you’re contradicting yourself. On one hand you say, “the Royals just spent $17 million on a guy who won’t help them because they aren’t positioned to win. Then you say, “I’m not saying that we should do that” and then it sure seems like you say exactly that they should do that.

No. They shouldn’t be spending $17 million on guys who won’t make a meaningful difference in the team. I’m not going to be excited by anybody except our own developing players( Sisco and Stewart excepted. I’m happy to send them off) and maybe another Iglesias or two.

Im Not contradicting myself at all.

Im simply saying that you can still go out and achieve your long term plan while also putting a more representative product on the field now.  It’s that simple.  
 

Now, HOW you do that is where the discussion gets interesting imo...but the concept of what I’m saying is pretty simple.

And btw, when I said I’m not saying the Os should have done that, I was talking about signing Santana.  I was just using that as an example of what I’m saying.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Im Not contradicting myself at all.

Im simply saying that you can still go out and achieve your long term plan while also putting a more representative product on the field now.  It’s that simple.  
 

Now, HOW you do that is where the discussion gets interesting imo...but the concept of what I’m saying is pretty simple.

And btw, when I said I’m not saying the Os should have done that, I was talking about signing Santana.  I was just using that as an example of what I’m saying.

This is starting to get fun.

so to clarify. You don’t want the Orioles to sign Santana. You don’t want them to spend 17 million on a guy who won’t help the Team improve meaningfully.....um... so you want us to spend 17 million on a guy who WILL help the team meaningfully? Great. And that would be whom, pray tell?
Ok. Let’s assume there is such a guy, and we sign such a guy, even though he won’t help the team meaningfully. What he WILL do is cost 17 million, and take playing time away from the youngsters. I would rather see the youngsters.

(I wanted to see David Hess until he showed he was terrible. I had to continue to see him for too long after that but at least I know he’s terrible, and that’s time well spent.)

And again, one guy wouldn’t help. Our Lord Himself can’t help yet because he’s only one guy, and one guy, even of such Lofty abilities, won’t pull the team out of the doldrums yet. The best player in baseball history hasn’t helped the Angels out of THEIR Doldrums.

It is not logical to sign one guy that fits the “17 million for Santana even though he won’t meaningfully help the Royals,” concept. Because he’ll be wasted money, and he won’t fix anything.

We need to sign cheap flyers like Karns and Milone and Iglesias, give paying time to our youngsters, and acquire talent. It’s a 9- man team. We need 9 solid guys, and we cannot acquire them in one offseason. We just can’t. That’s why the offseason is hard. We just aren’t ready yet.

Thats just the way the ball rolls these days.

Enjoy the teething pains of the young guys, send the bad ones away to make room for more young guys, and rejoice when John Means 2.0 and 3.0 reveal themselves.

[Jammer7]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:So, if the Os are so much better evaluation (and btw, there is zero evidence of that right now), it won’t matter where they draft in the first round.

Now you know that is not true, and there are other teams with a similar general philosophy. Of course it matters where you draft, and that is the whole point of tanking. You pick high in every round of the rule 4, rule 5 and claims on waivers. It pays to suck for a while. 

I would not say there is no evidence, but I would not say it is clear and convincing either. I will not even count Rutschman, because a trained chimp would have drafted Adley. I would say that Henderson, Kjerstad, Westburg, Stowers, Haskins, Hernaiz, J. Ortiz, Mayo, Baumler and Servideo, among many others, will have a lot to say about that. Time will prove it, sure. And they will miss on some, no doubt. But I believe they will miss less than most teams. There will be no Rowells or Hobgoods. 

I believe in what they are doing. To me, they know what they develop well and they go after it with conviction. They scout and data mine for specific traits. And they believe in their player development staff. Perhaps what will be most impressive is when some of those day three pitching prospects and small college finds make it to the major leagues.

This organization works to develop character as well, not just the talent. That is one of the things about Matt Blood and Mike Elias that I think is uncommon, although they are not the only organization to do it. 

Lastly, I think the way in which college and high school players are scouted today will lead to a lower failure rate. With all of the data collected, and all of the showcases and such, the evolution of the scouting industry in the past 5-7 years has been astounding. That is why players’ careers are shorter now. Tons of young talent coming through the minor league systems today. And probably less PED use is a factor as well, although you cannot convince me that certain 40 year old DH’s aren’t using something.

[hoosiers]

I think Elias needs to keep doing what he is doing in 2021.  Signing guys like Milone and Iglesias, hope for good production and deal them at the appropriate time.  It would be nice if Elias could make a couple more "investments and perhaps a higher $ signing or two (closer to $5M-$7M).  The best place to "invest" is usually a reclamation project or two in the bullpen.  Perhaps the Os can afford to spend more, but IMO that is where the Chris Davis contract really hurts.  It is a lot of wasted $.  All the while guiding us to a bottom 10 finish and a good draft pick and international slots.

We may only win 65 games or so in 2021, but I think expectations/planning will change in 2022 as our prospects graduate.  Not sure ME will invest in a major FA in 2022, but our accumulated young, cheap talent (AR, Mountcastle, Hall, GrayRod, Means, Santander, Hays, Harvey, Scott, Akin, Kremer, Baumann) with additional talent heading toward the upper levels (Westburg, Gunner, Kjerstad, etc).should be enough to contemplate competing in a serious manner in 2023. 

 

 

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Philip said:

This is starting to get fun.

so to clarify. You don’t want the Orioles to sign Santana. You don’t want them to spend 17 million on a guy who won’t help the Team improve meaningfully.....um... so you want us to spend 17 million on a guy who WILL help the team meaningfully? Great. And that would be whom, pray tell?
Ok. Let’s assume there is such a guy, and we sign such a guy, even though he won’t help the team meaningfully. What he WILL do is cost 17 million, and take playing time away from the youngsters. I would rather see the youngsters.

(I wanted to see David Hess until he showed he was terrible. I had to continue to see him for too long after that but at least I know he’s terrible, and that’s time well spent.)

And again, one guy wouldn’t help. Our Lord Himself can’t help yet because he’s only one guy, and one guy, even of such Lofty abilities, won’t pull the team out of the doldrums yet. The best player in baseball history hasn’t helped the Angels out of THEIR Doldrums.

It is not logical to sign one guy that fits the “17 million for Santana even though he won’t meaningfully help the Royals,” concept. Because he’ll be wasted money, and he won’t fix anything.

We need to sign cheap flyers like Karns and Milone and Iglesias, give paying time to our youngsters, and acquire talent. It’s a 9- man team. We need 9 solid guys, and we cannot acquire them in one offseason. We just can’t. That’s why the offseason is hard. We just aren’t ready yet.

Thats just the way the ball rolls these days.

Enjoy the teething pains of the young guys, send the bad ones away to make room for more young guys, and rejoice when John Means 2.0 and 3.0 reveal themselves.

The way you twist the words in saying is truly a gift.  You seem to have zero idea what I’m saying yet you think you do and are just posting a lot of stuff that doesn’t have anything to do with what I’m saying.