Rule 5: Orioles Select Mac Sceroler, RHP (Reds) Nephew of Ben McDonald

[Jammer7]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So let me get this straight.  Elias and his staff are totally infallible?  They never have and never will be wrong?

Next thing..why do you come to a message board and discuss these things if your thought process is, they know everything and there is no reason to question it.

Are you ever wrong?

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Are you ever wrong?

Sure..all the time.  Doesn’t mean I won’t express my opinion and use the facts I have at hand to back it up.

[Jammer7]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure..all the time.  Doesn’t mean I won’t express my opinion and use the facts I have at hand to back it up.

You often bring up excellent points, and you bring a lot to the boards. However, I have yet to see you admit you are wrong, or even fail to have the last word. Over and over again recently, you are hyper-critical of Elias and his moves. But yet, these moves are based on information Elias obviously has. It is either information you have or you don't. At best, he interprets the information differently than you. Or maybe it is Sig, an actual rocket scientist, who interprets the data differently than you. These two guys have played key roles in two extremely successful organizations in the last decade, most recently rebuilding the Astros to become a world champion. So it seems they actually have proven they know what it is they are doing. I do not know you, but I do not believe those accomplishments are on your resume, are they? 

So, when we disagree with you, and we are inclined to go along with Elias and Sig, you should understand why. I am not saying they are always correct, certainly not. But chances are they know something you, and the rest of us, do not. I happen to agree with you about Pop, based on what little info we have on the two guys they took. But I admire their conviction for scouting for what they want and going for it. When they are wrong, I am sure they will admit it. 

 

[Just Regular]

My main takeaway here is if its Ben's world, we're totally getting the LSU guy at 1-5.

It was notable the attractive archetype deep repertoire phrasing given.  When Alex Fast was on MASN All Access after Sig, the tidbit about Orioles pitchers being 3rd MLB-wide in changeup usage last year was one I hadn't known.

Of course we have Means, and then the Grayson daydream thing is he's the big Texas kid with a changeup of some renown.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

You often bring up excellent points, and you bring a lot to the boards. However, I have yet to see you admit you are wrong, or even fail to have the last word. Over and over again recently, you are hyper-critical of Elias and his moves. But yet, these moves are based on information Elias obviously has. It is either information you have or you don't. At best, he interprets the information differently than you. Or maybe it is Sig, an actual rocket scientist, who interprets the data differently than you. These two guys have played key roles in two extremely successful organizations in the last decade, most recently rebuilding the Astros to become a world champion. So it seems they actually have proven they know what it is they are doing. I do not know you, but I do not believe those accomplishments are on your resume, are they? 

So, when we disagree with you, and we are inclined to go along with Elias and Sig, you should understand why. I am not saying they are always correct, certainly not. But chances are they know something you, and the rest of us, do not. I happen to agree with you about Pop, based on what little info we have on the two guys they took. But I admire their conviction for scouting for what they want and going for it. When they are wrong, I am sure they will admit it. 

 

Ok great.  Did I ask you to go with what I say?  If you want to believe in whatever secret info they have over his age, level he has reached and actual results, have at it.

Personally, I don’t care what his spin rate is if he still isn’t good.  You could have the greatest spin rate of all time but if you don’t pitch well, it doesn’t matter.

And I haven’t really been critical about Elias.  I’m critical of the horrible ownership group he works for.  
 

But no, I don’t think Elias is infallible and I think he has and will make mistakes.  However, you would be hard pressed to find me disagreeing with what he has done so far.  
 

The Pop decision  and all the subsequent moves that go along with it, is an awful decision  imo.  
 

Pop may ever be anything..that’s obvious but he is more likely than the guys we got.

 

 

[weams]

23 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

You often bring up excellent points, and you bring a lot to the boards. However, I have yet to see you admit you are wrong, or even fail to have the last word. Over and over again recently, you are hyper-critical of Elias and his moves. But yet, these moves are based on information Elias obviously has. It is either information you have or you don't. At best, he interprets the information differently than you. Or maybe it is Sig, an actual rocket scientist, who interprets the data differently than you. These two guys have played key roles in two extremely successful organizations in the last decade, most recently rebuilding the Astros to become a world champion. So it seems they actually have proven they know what it is they are doing. I do not know you, but I do not believe those accomplishments are on your resume, are they? 

So, when we disagree with you, and we are inclined to go along with Elias and Sig, you should understand why. I am not saying they are always correct, certainly not. But chances are they know something you, and the rest of us, do not. I happen to agree with you about Pop, based on what little info we have on the two guys they took. But I admire their conviction for scouting for what they want and going for it. When they are wrong, I am sure they will admit it. 

 

I saw Pop in AA before he went down. He was good. Threw hard.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

So let me get this straight.  Elias and his staff are totally infallible?  They never have and never will be wrong?

Next thing..why do you come to a message board and discuss these things if your thought process is, they know everything and there is no reason to question it.

Of course they're not infallible. That's why I stated explicitly that you may be right. I do have reason to trust their processes though. I have more confidence that they know the type of people to talent than any group that has ever come in, and I'm certain they're contemplating age/level in the context of a million things.

I trust their processes and am willing to see how this all turns out before drawing wild conclusions.

Heck, they could be wrong and still be right. They could say that Pop's ceiling is a 1-2 WAR middle reliever. Pop turns out to be just that for 4 years and the other two guys flame out. However, if they think those other two guys have a good chance to be 2-3 WAR SPs, it's still the direction I want them to go.

[weams]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Of course they're not infallible. That's why I stated explicitly that you may be right. I do have reason to trust their processes though. I have more confidence that they know the type of people to talent than any group that has ever come in, and I'm certain they're contemplating age/level in the context of a million things.

I trust their processes and am willing to see how this all turns out before drawing wild conclusions.

Heck, they could be wrong and still be right. They could say that Pop's ceiling is a 1-2 WAR middle reliever. Pop turns out to be just that for 4 years and the other two guys flame out. However, if they think those other two guys have a good chance to be 2-3 WAR SPs, it's still the direction I want them to go.

I believe in certain people on that staff. Other than Tony-OH, they all have much better access to real data and scouting than anyone here. Especially me. So I'll judge then in a couple years.

[Sports Guy]

38 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Of course they're not infallible. That's why I stated explicitly that you may be right. I do have reason to trust their processes though. I have more confidence that they know the type of people to talent than any group that has ever come in, and I'm certain they're contemplating age/level in the context of a million things.

I trust their processes and am willing to see how this all turns out before drawing wild conclusions.

Heck, they could be wrong and still be right. They could say that Pop's ceiling is a 1-2 WAR middle reliever. Pop turns out to be just that for 4 years and the other two guys flame out. However, if they think those other two guys have a good chance to be 2-3 WAR SPs, it's still the direction I want them to go.

I trust their process most of the time..but when they decide a guy like this is worth a spot, especially over Pop, I greatly question their process with this particular player.  At age 24, pitching in A ball, he gave up 13 homers in 117 innings.  He has been, on average, about 1.5 years older than the average age of his competition, has a high HR rate and an pretty unspectacular ERA.  
 

Again, I don’t care about his spin rate or anything like that if he doesn’t perform well.  

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Director of pro scouting Mike Snyder talked about Sceroler and Wells in a Zoom conference call with the media.

“Both of these guys fit an attractive archetype as strike-throwing starting pitchers with a deep repertoire. In both cases we have excellent performance and a very appealing pitch mix,” Snyder said.

“For Sceroler, we were attracted to the four-pitch mix. It’s a good fastball, good traits and flashes of power. He leverages the curveball downhill. Throws the slider for strikes and for chases and he can get a lot of awkward swings on a plus-splitter. So he brings a lot to the table.” 

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/12/orioles-select-two-pitchers-and-lose-two-in-rule-5-draft.html

 

The video on Snyder is even better.   

He says the Os went from starter with 4 pitch repertoires and better that average control.   Risking  giving up a reliever in Pop for a starter is part of the equation IMO.    Wells has played at AA and Sceroler at A+.  Fenter has a big jump all the way for low A ball.

   Qualls description on the Catcher   Hudgins sound really good  60 arm, good defensive catcher with power.

[Can_of_corn]

The way my pessimistic mind works is that if a guy has four pitches with better than average control and he wasn't protected by his team his raw stuff is going to be poor.

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The way my pessimistic mind works is that if a guy has four pitches with better than average control and he wasn't protected by his team his raw stuff is going to be poor.

Elias has built as player development machine.  Analytics and coaches to help apply them.  To teach how to add a pitch and sharpness the ones pitchers have. The best of the pitching coaches will be in the majors in Chris Holt.   And Elias has already said that development is the priority over winning in 2021.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Elias has built as player development machine.  Analytics and coaches to help apply them.  To teach how to add a pitch and sharpness the ones pitchers have. The best of the pitching coaches will be in the majors in Chris Holt.   And Elias has already said that development is the priority over winning in 2021.

Other than Means, who has appeared to have done a lot on his own, I don't see much in the way of results.  Some guys have improved, some have regressed.  Seems like every other group.

I don't think Elias can spin straw into gold.

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias has built as player development machine.  Analytics and coaches to help apply them.  To teach how to add a pitch and sharpness the ones pitchers have. The best of the pitching coaches will be in the majors in Chris Holt.   And Elias has already said that development is the priority over winning in 2021.

This is completely overstated.  He hasn’t built anything yet.  Let’s see these come up and perform over a real sample size before we about Elias as a god of player development.

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is completely overstated.  He hasn’t built anything yet.  Let’s see these come up and perform over a real sample size before we about Elias as a god of player development.

Totally fair.   I do think the minor leaguers reflected a ton of improvement in 2019 though.   The early returns are good.   

I do think Elias has views on what kinds of pitchers he wants, and it’s possible Pop didn’t fit that mold.