Orioles not likely to bid on Ha-Seong Kim

[Roll Tide]

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Hitting

The most important tool for Kim is his hitting. With a big leg kick, Kim possesses solid bat speed that makes him a line drive threat to each part of the field. Thus far, Kim strongly prefers his pull side. As seen below, he can get his hands inside of the fastball on the inside corner, while covering the outer edge with similar power. Kim has batted .294 throughout his tenure in the KBO with 36.9% of his base hits going for extra bases. 

In his career, Kim has improved remarkably with his approach at the plate. He has become more patient and chasing fewer pitches outside of the strike zone. Kim had more than two strikeouts per walk in his first full season in the KBO but reduced this number to just 0.91 in the 2020 season. As a result, his strikeout rate has also dropped from 19.8% to 10.9%. This rate will almost definitely be higher in the major leagues. Kim still projects to be at least a .280 hitter at the next level with a solid eye at the plate. 
 

While his contact tool makes Kim a solid player, his power is what makes him one of the more highly regarded Korean players in recent memory. Kim has hit 133 home runs in the KBO and finished ninth in that department this season with 30. Despite having the ability to spray the ball to each side of the park, Kim excels at pulling the ball with authority. He has multiple moonshot home runs in the KBO deep into the left-field bleachers. But this could be a cause for concern as “pull happy” hitters have a tendency to open up their lead shoulder, leading to weak contact.  

Although Kim has eye-popping home run numbers, he doesn’t have the true upper-cut swing that molds players into the high strikeout and low contact tier. He is more of a natural power hitter, with his line-drive swing. With this swing, Kim also has no trouble catching up to the fastball high in the zone like other sluggers. As mentioned earlier, Kim has yet to consistently face the fastball velocity he will see in the majors. With his ability to catch up with the high fastball this will be a key trait to look for early in his MLB career.

 

 

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Speed

Speed is one of the hardest traits to project from the KBO to the major league level. In 2015, Eric Thames stole 40 bases for the NC Dinos, but he has yet to steal more than seven in the majors. Kim has stolen 74 bases at a 73.6% clip in the KBO. Unlike Thames, Kim looks quicker on the basepaths and on defense, which bodes well for his speed to translate at the next level. This is a key reason for his potential versatility on the infield, with athleticism to play shortstop as well as second and third. 

Kim’s career-high in steals in the KBO was 33. He will most likely be in the 20 stolen base range in the major leagues. 

 

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Defense

While Kim doesn’t have an incredible arm or athleticism, he is still an average to above-average shortstop. He has a relatively strong arm and passable range for a shortstop. If Kim were to join a team like the Toronto Blue Jays, he could seamlessly transition to second base and possibly become a plus defender. His arm could also give him the ability to move to third base if needed. 

Kim has committed 103 errors in the KBO, primarily at shortstop, and has occasionally played first, second, and third base. Even scouts who are lower on Kim believe that he has the defensive potential of a utility man, showing his excellent versatility. 

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TreaTurner comp

The most apt comparison for Ha-Seong Kim, in terms of his mold, is Washington Nationalsshortstop Trea Turner. While Kim will never be one of the fastest players in the league like Turner, their similarities in leg kicks and left-field pop makes it a viable comparison. Turner has had two seasons of 19 home runs and is a .296 career hitter. He is also a solid shortstop, who has the ability to make splashy plays but isn’t exactly a gold-glove caliber player at this stage. 

Kim will most likely be a better contact hitter than Turner, who has a 2.37 strikeout to walk ratio. However, he will fall short of the speed of Turner on the basepaths. Turner does provide a blueprint for Kim, with his pull side power, sneaky pop, and ability to hit for average.

https://lastwordonsports.com/baseball/2020/12/05/scouting-report-for-korean-star-ha-seong-kim/

 

[jamalshw]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Right, like when they declined to participate in the Ohtani posting.

The Darvish posting.

The Tanaka posting.

The Ryu posting.

 

 

Of course those all happened when the Orioles blatantly refused to participate in the international market in any real way. I think we are in a different spot now where, if the deal made sense, the Orioles would engage.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

Of course those all happened when the Orioles blatantly refused to participate in the international market in any real way. I think we are in a different spot now where, if the deal made sense, the Orioles would engage.

Shrug.  I'll get on board that ride when they start actually participating.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Shrug.  I'll get on board that ride when they start actually participating.

They are participating now.    Made good strides the last two years and at this point they are no longer playing from behind so far as next year’s class goes (not the delayed J2 2020 class that will sign next month, but the next one).   

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They are participating now.    Made good strides the last two years and at this point they are no longer playing from behind so far as next year’s class goes (not the delayed J2 2020 class that will sign next month, but the next one).   

I was talking about participating in the posting process.

[jamalshw]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was talking about participating in the posting process.

The problem with that is: there needs to be someone that makes sense to participate. I don't want them to make a bid just so they can say they are participating. If this was a Ohtani 2.0 situation and they didn't make a bid, then I'm onboard with you, but I don't view a lack of interest in Kim as proof they are still never going to participate in the posting process (as was the case in years past).

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think they have earned the benefit of the doubt.  They are going to have to show me every step of the way.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

So bid what you are willing to go and drop if it gets ridiculous.

How would you value him, and what do you think makes sense for the Orioles?  If he's a 2-win player with a little upside but also some risk, what would you pay for that in free agency?  Or more importantly, should a team in the Orioles' position be paying free agent rates for a 2-win player?

One of my arguments against resigning Nick Markakis in 2015 was that he had an established value of 1.5 wins or so.  At $8M a win that's $12M a year, or 3/40 or something.  If you're a little bit smart and willing to take on a bit of risk you can find 1-2 win players on the market every offseason without a 3-4 year commitment, often at a small fraction of that longer-term contract.

A fair, market-value deal for He-Seong Kim is probably like 4/64.  Wouldn't the Orioles be better off signing players like Iglesias or other buy-low options than paying $64M for two wins a year?

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think they have earned the benefit of the doubt.  They are going to have to show me every step of the way.

Show you what?  That right now they're interested in spending $50M on established international talent?  I don't think they've ever indicated that they want to do that at all, at least not today.

[DrungoHazewood]

46 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Shrug.  I'll get on board that ride when they start actually participating.

Oh, now I see, you're still on that nothing has changed and it's still Big Pete's 2008 thing.  Okay, at least I understand.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Show you what?  That right now they're interested in spending $50M on established international talent?  I don't think they've ever indicated that they want to do that at all, at least not today.

That they are not ideologically opposed to the posting system.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

Oh, now I see, you're still on that nothing has changed and it's still Big Pete's 2008 thing.  Okay, at least I understand.

They aren't participating in the posting system, they aren't spending their full allotment in the international market.

Seems wrong to give them credit for something they haven't done yet.

[DrungoHazewood]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They aren't participating in the posting system, they aren't spending their full allotment in the international market.

Seems wrong to give them credit for something they haven't done yet.

Also seems wrong to dock them credit for things that they could reasonably and logically be staying out of on purpose.

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was talking about participating in the posting process.

Oh.   I have no idea if they would do that or not.   As I recall the process has changed over time, and some of the reasons that used to be given as to why to avoid posting fee deals no longer apply.    So, I’d like to think we’d consider it in an appropriate situation.    But I doubt they’d get involved in this one.   

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Oh.   I have no idea if they would do that or not.   As I recall the process has changed over time, and some of the reasons that used to be given as to why to avoid posting fee deals no longer apply.    So, I’d like to think we’d consider it in an appropriate situation.    But I doubt they’d get involved in this one.   

I think some of the opposition to posting fees in the past was a failure to understand or care that posted players are under contract to foreign teams, and if you want that contract and player you have to pay for that value.  I don't know if the Orioles were philosophically opposed to compensating teams for the players they control, or if they just couldn't afford the players being offered.