O’s Sign Galvis. 1/$1.25 million

[weams]

38 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Hopefully we'll just get some candor and label it the Not 2020 WSOHL report - even Gleyber had it.

If Galvis is just falling off that cliff and is only the 29th best fielding SS nowadays (#Gleyber!), he probably still saves a dozen or more runs than if we tried Sanchez, Urias or Valaika there 150 times.   

We even get to manage Richie Martin's service time to secure his 2025 now, so it kind of pays for itself!

Broken left hook of Hamate!

[Tony-OH]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I also prefer Statcast to the other systems, but none of them are perfect and when all three of the others point a different direction than Statcast I’m willing to consider that Statcast may be off in this case, particularly in a small sample size as SG noted.   

In any event, I’m not expecting GG caliber defense from him, just very solid defense.   

It's a valid point. I do expect solid defense, but I think we  could have gotten that elsewhere. In the end, this really doesn't matter all that much, but since we have nothing else to discuss, why not?

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

https://theathletic.com/2348152/2021/01/26/freddy-galvis-signing-2021-orioles/?source=user_shared_article

 

A big point mentioned here is that Galvis had apparently put on some lbs and that could have effected his defense in 2020 and that he is apparently in better shape.

Now this makes some sense. I do wonder how they know he's in better shape, but either way, the weird year certainly could have thrown some guys off and adding pounds for a SS when you're 5-10 and 30 years old is never good. 

This makes me feel better that he can get back to his former defensive self.

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Not to mention, I have no idea why anyone is putting stock in any defensive stats that are over a SSS.  They have enough noise as it is over a full season, much less 1/3 of one.

Sanchez and Valaika sounds terrible to me.  
 

Sanchez won a GG at second.  He’s a good defensive second baseman.  That’s why you signed him.  He needs to stay there.

60 games is not a small sample size.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

60 games is not a small sample size.

I thought you needed around two seasons of data before you could really start evaluating defense?

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

60 games is not a small sample size.

Sure it is..especially when talking about very flawed defensive stats.  
 

Defensive stats have very little value in any one season because of the noise in them, even if they are improving.  But a season that is 100 games less?  
 

On top of that, Galvis only appeared in 47 games and judging by the box score, 2 of those games he came into late and he appeared in a few other games that were only 7 innings.

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Sure. Again I don't think any of the current options moves a needle one way or the other, and I guess if the orioles know the reason why Galvis' defense slipped so much last year and they think he can get back to where he was, then sure, why not on the defensive side alone? 

I doubt any of the guys you mentioned are starters during a playoff caliber orioles team and I doubt any of them can be traded to being one in, even in a package.

I guess for a team that seems to be cutting corners financially, why dump money into a guy that's not going to move the needle or really win you more ball games. the only way this makes sense is if gold glove caliber defense shows back up and it's helps a young pitching staff.

I guess we'll see what Galvis shows up defensively this year.

Was last season long enough for defensive metrics to have significant meaning?

[Tony-OH]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I thought you needed around two seasons of data before you could really start evaluating defense?

I don't buy that. First, these guys have been evaluated through the minors. Second, players can nd do improve at the major league level, and sometimes year to year, but the good thing about statcast/Hawk-Eye cameras information is that it gives you jumps, bursts and route times so it really indisputable. 

I think after about 40 games of so you have a pretty good baseline for information using statcast/Hawk-Eye cameras data.

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Was last season long enough for defensive metrics to have significant meaning?

Depends on your definition of significant. Last year was a weird year to evaluate because of everything going on. Saying that, when someone drops significantly in an area when approaching the age in which drops off start to occur my freauwently, they should be cause for concern. 

Concern doesn't mean an absolute decision can be made, but clearly baseball executives have concerns over Galvis due to the fact he was available so cheaply (in MLB terms). 

Now, the Orioles have more information than what's listed on the baseball savant site and of course it's being reported that Galvis put on weight last year that may have been the cause of his decline defensively. If Galvis has taken that weight off, ha a good offseason, perhaps he can get back to that GG-caliber defense at SS.

If he does, than it's probably worth it to the Orioles since they have a young pitching staff with potentially three rookies in the rotation to start 2021.

But this idea that you just ignore last year's information because of SSS is silly in my opinion. You may put it into context due to the amount of sample size, but it's part of the equation no doubt. 

But remember, age is a factor here as well. While 31 is not old per se, it's not often that players improve much at all at that age. 

Saying all that, the fact that there could be a reason for his decline last year (weight) and that it may have been solved gives me more hope of a rebound.

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't buy that. First, these guys have been evaluated through the minors. Second, players can nd do improve at the major league level, and sometimes year to year, but the good thing about statcast/Hawk-Eye cameras information is that it gives you jumps, bursts and route times so it really indisputable. 

I think after about 40 games of so you have a pretty good baseline for information using statcast/Hawk-Eye cameras data.

Here is an article that agrees with you:

“Statcast and OAA are pretty new tools and we’re still learning things about what it means and how to interpret its data, but based on what we can see of the data and how it is generated, it’s the best tool there is to measure most defensive components and is far more likely to be accurate even in small samples.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.lookoutlanding.com/platform/amp/2020/8/26/21401269/kyle-lewis-small-sample-sizes-and-player-defense-oaa-might-just-be-okay

 

[Tony-OH]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here is an article that agrees with you:

“Statcast and OAA are pretty new tools and we’re still learning things about what it means and how to interpret its data, but based on what we can see of the data and how it is generated, it’s the best tool there is to measure most defensive components and is far more likely to be accurate even in small samples.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.lookoutlanding.com/platform/amp/2020/8/26/21401269/kyle-lewis-small-sample-sizes-and-player-defense-oaa-might-just-be-okay

 

Thanks for posting that. I know I've read that before and I probably should have brought that up. I've done a lot of research into the statcast/Hawk-Eye cameras information and agree, there's a ton more to analyze and figure out, but it's fascinating for me because for once, there is no math really involved, just cold hard data to measure up against others in similar situations. 

I'm also interested in Bauer's units to see if I can correlate why certain guys can get away with 91 MPH fastball when others can't. I just wish I had the data for the Orioles minor leaguers.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm also interested in Bauer's units to see if I can correlate why certain guys can get away with 91 MPH fastball when others can't. I just wish I had the data for the Orioles minor leaguers.

My guess is spin rate and ball movement.

 

[interloper]

I like it. 

Eat my shorts.

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

My guess is spin rate and ball movement.

 

That’s hilarious.   Glad to see Pedro has a sense of humor.    

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s hilarious.   Glad to see Pedro has a sense of humor.    

Whenever Pedro's appeared on MLB network, he's had good insights and sense of humor.