The second guessing Hyde thread.

[Tony-OH]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Is that 2021 data?   Ruiz looks a little quicker to me this year, for example on those defensive plays on Opening Day.

Ruiz was 25.2 ft per second last year, and he's 23.7 this year. Franco was 24.6 last year, 24.2 this year. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, waroriole said:

You don’t think there’s a certain number of games he needs to win to have his option picked up? If he loses 100 again, you think he comes back next year?

Its not like they picked up his option already. 

Elias wants another top pick.  

You don't give a manger no tools to win and then expect him to win.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Ruiz was 25.2 ft per second last year, and he's 23.7 this year. Franco was 24.6 last year, 24.2 this year. 

Interesting.  I’m surprised they have enough data this year to post results.   

in theirs careers, Ruiz has scored from 2B on a single 67% of the time, Franco 54%.    Major league average is 61%, so Franco’s pretty bad at it.   
 

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

“Just ridiculous. The man hits a two-run homer and because Ruiz bats left-handed, he pinch hits for him when there is an automatic out on deck in Galvis. I'm losing more and more faith in Hyde's game management skills.”
 

I get the irony it is people complaining about the choice of Rio Ruiz or Ramon Urias?  It’s not pinch hitting Fernando Tatis for Freddy Galvis.  It is two below average major league hitters.  Your just tossing them up there in hope they can get a hit or atleast get on base.  

Ruiz has been terrible all year and you takeout a guy who hit a two-run homer in the game? if you want to use Ruiz, you replace the guy who has been overmatched all year coming up next.  It was a bad decision regardless of the fact neither hitter was Tatis. 

I don't even understand your second point before? Why in the world do you pinch run a guy with slower spring speed when he's the winning run at second? Grant it they are both slow as molasses, but it just seems strange.

Hyde has some kind of weird obsession with Ruiz. He's not a good major league player.

 

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Frobby said:

Interesting.  I’m surprised they have enough data this year to post results.   

in theirs careers, Ruiz has scored from 2B on a single 67% of the time, Franco 54%.    Major league average is 61%, so Franco’s pretty bad at it.   
 

Way too many variables for those numbers to have any meaning. I'll stick with actual foot speed. They are both slow so I honestly don't get changing them out unless Franco has some kind of injury we aren't aware of. It's not like he put McKenna out there. It's just surprising to see a guy with 7% percentile speed used as a pinch runner.

[Frobby]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Way too many variables for those numbers to have any meaning. I'll stick with actual foot speed. They are both slow so I honestly don't get changing them out unless Franco has some kind of injury we aren't aware of. It's not like he put McKenna out there. It's just surprising to see a guy with 7% percentile speed used as a pinch runner.

I’m just not sure I believe the Ruiz foot speed number based on 8 games of data.   It would be bizarre to me for a guy his age to go from 25.2 to 23.7 in a single offseason unless he showed up woefully out of shape.    Maybe he had a stumble or something that skewed his numbers in such a small sample.   Let’s look again after a month or two.   

In any event, I put more stock in those numbers about advancing from 2B on a single than you do.   Ruiz also has scored from 1B on a double a higher percentage of the time than Franco has.    
 

[Aristotelian]

I did not see the play, but just a hunch: maybe he wanted a runner he had confidence would make a good situational decision, not necessarily the fastest guy. 

[survivedc]

43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m just not sure I believe the Ruiz foot speed number based on 8 games of data.   It would be bizarre to me for a guy his age to go from 25.2 to 23.7 in a single offseason unless he showed up woefully out of shape.    Maybe he had a stumble or something that skewed his numbers in such a small sample.   Let’s look again after a month or two.   

In any event, I put more stock in those numbers about advancing from 2B on a single than you do.   Ruiz also has scored from 1B on a double a higher percentage of the time than Franco has.    
 

Kind of what I alluded to in game thread. Straight speed is important but not a catchall. Brian Roberts is a great example.

[glenn__davis]

I actually liked the idea to stick with Plutko.  The Orioles shouldn't really be a team with a true closer anyway.  Haven't many of us been screaming for years about taking a reliever out when he's pitching well just to plug in the designated "closer"?  I don't think Plutko's that good either but he's pitched well so far.  Not to mention that Valdez blew his last opportunity over the weekend.

Ultimately I thought it was a very defensible move (or non-move) and probably one I would have made as well.

[LTO's]

39 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I actually liked the idea to stick with Plutko.  The Orioles shouldn't really be a team with a true closer anyway.  Haven't many of us been screaming for years about taking a reliever out when he's pitching well just to plug in the designated "closer"?  I don't think Plutko's that good either but he's pitched well so far.  Not to mention that Valdez blew his last opportunity over the weekend.

Ultimately I thought it was a very defensible move (or non-move) and probably one I would have made as well.

Yeah I remember after Saturday the argument was having a guy who tops out at 85 being your closer is a recipe for disaster. It was a double header and Hyde wanted to avoid using the entire bullpen if possible. Plutko was cruising and was facing 8-9-1. Don't think anyone expected the 9 hitter to put one on Eutaw St. 

The real issue is Kremer not being able to get past 3 innings without totally losing his command. 

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m just not sure I believe the Ruiz foot speed number based on 8 games of data.   It would be bizarre to me for a guy his age to go from 25.2 to 23.7 in a single offseason unless he showed up woefully out of shape.    Maybe he had a stumble or something that skewed his numbers in such a small sample.   Let’s look again after a month or two.   

In any event, I put more stock in those numbers about advancing from 2B on a single than you do.   Ruiz also has scored from 1B on a double a higher percentage of the time than Franco has.    
 

Clearly, but there are a lot of variables including the speed of the runner that collected the single, where the ball was hit, the outfielder's speed to get to the ball, the outfielder's arm, the EV of the single just to name the things I can think of off the top of my head.

3 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

I actually liked the idea to stick with Plutko.  The Orioles shouldn't really be a team with a true closer anyway.  Haven't many of us been screaming for years about taking a reliever out when he's pitching well just to plug in the designated "closer"?  I don't think Plutko's that good either but he's pitched well so far.  Not to mention that Valdez blew his last opportunity over the weekend.

Ultimately I thought it was a very defensible move (or non-move) and probably one I would have made as well.

It is defensible, but I still disagree with the decision since it was risky and Valdez was the better option to win the game in my opinion. Hyde was worried about having Valdez for an extended period for today's game instead of playing to win that game. He made comments that he was hoping to be able to save Valdez and didn't expect a two-run homer by Plutko by the low order hitter.

Over his career, batters have slashed .370/.452/.630/1.081 the 2 PA against him as a reliever. Grant it it's only 31 PAs, but it just seemed like an unneeded risk. The batter that homered against him was the 2nd time he faced Plutko. Meanwhile, since reinventing himself with the dead fish, in the 14 games Valdez has pitched as an Oriole he's allowed more than one earned run in an appearance 1 time. (Sept 17th last year).

Whether Valdez is your "pure" closer or not, I think he's the best option to win a ballgame with a two-run lead in the 9th. Considering the team really needed a win, pushing Plutko to get a 3 inning save while taking him out of his reliever comfort zone of facing a guy once wasn't the best decision in my mind. 

Defensible, sure, questionable, for sure as well.

 

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Clearly, but there are a lot of variables including the speed of the runner that collected the single, where the ball was hit, the outfielder's speed to get to the ball, the outfielder's arm, the EV of the single just to name the things I can think of off the top of my head.

I agree with everything you say here.   I’d add that the size of the outfield also matters a good deal.   I’m pretty confident saying that fewer runners score from 2B on a single in Fenway Park than they do in Coors Field (though I haven’t looked it up).   

Obviously, the bigger the sample size, the more the variables shake out.    I’m more confident that Franco (sample size 65) is bad at scoring from 2B on a single than I am that Ruiz (sample size 21) is good at it.   
 

 

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I agree with everything you say here.   I’d add that the size of the outfield also matters a good deal.   I’m pretty confident saying that fewer runners score from 2B on a single in Fenway Park than they do in Coors Field (though I haven’t looked it up).   

Obviously, the bigger the sample size, the more the variables shake out.    I’m more confident that Franco (sample size 65) is bad at scoring from 2B on a single than I am that Ruiz (sample size 21) is good at it.   
 

 

Like I said in on Twitter and the game thread though, the best thing about using Ruiz as a pinch runner is that Hyde didn't use him as a pinch hitter for Urias again.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d add that the size of the outfield also matters a good deal.   I’m pretty confident saying that fewer runners score from 2B on a single in Fenway Park than they do in Coors Field (though I haven’t looked it up).  

In 2019 (last full season played), the Red Sox scored from 2B on a single 57% of the time, while the Rockies did so 70% of the time.   That’s just one year, and it includes those teams’ home and away games, but it corroborates my point.    

So knowing that, I’ve gone back to look at Philly in 2014-19 while Franco played there.  Their home park is very cozy and the Phillies’ rate of scoring from 2B on a single was about 57% in the years he played there, compared to Franco’s 54%.    That puts Franco at below average, but not as far below average as I initially thought based on the major league average of 62%.   
 

[Tony-OH]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In 2019 (last full season played), the Red Sox scored from 2B on a single 57% of the time, while the Rockies did so 70% of the time.   That’s just one year, and it includes those teams’ home and away games, but it corroborates my point.    

So knowing that, I’ve gone back to look at Philly in 2014-19 while Franco played there.  Their home park is very cozy and the Phillies’ rate of scoring from 2B on a single was about 57% in the years he played there, compared to Franco’s 54%.    That puts Franco at below average, but not as far below average as I initially thought based on the major league average of 62%.   
 

Watching Franco run and looking at his numbers, there is no doubt he''s a below average runner. Of course, I would say the exact same thing about Ruiz which is my main point here.