Jump to content

Where are the undervalued guys from other organizations?


Tony-OH

Recommended Posts

I don't disagree with the premise, however we've got two guys right now that were in our system (Means and Mullins) who were undervalued by us.  While I agree that it's fun to pick up guys from other organizations and have them become stars, it's also nice when guys you were sleeping on from your own system are surpassing expectations, too.

 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't disagree with the premise, however we've got two guys right now that were in our system (Means and Mullins) who were undervalued by us.  While I agree that it's fun to pick up guys from other organizations and have them become stars, it's also nice when guys you were sleeping on from your own system are surpassing expectations, too.

 

What do you mean they were undervalued by "us?"

Means wen into the offseason and learned that changeup. He also increased his velocity by going to a performance place, not because of something the organization did for him. I know he's tangibly given some credit to Holt for the changeup, but I don't think the Orioles under Elias suddenly developed Means.

As for Mullins, he was always a prospect. it wasn't until he finally decided on his own to give up switch hitting did he become an everyday guy. When the organization tried to makes some changes with him two years ago you saw how awful he was.

Elias felt so good about him he sent him all the way to AA in 2019.

Over his last 109 PAs, Mullins is slashing .242/.330/.400/.730. Not terrible, but let's not start calling him a success story of the regime.

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

A lot of the trades he has made has been for players like this..undervalued guys, like Bradish.

I think we need to see how they develop.

Yeah, my post got prematurely posted while I was typing. This post is all about their ability to identify and acquire major league ready talent through their analytics. Minor league and amateur scouting will take years to determine how good they are at that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Yeah, my post got prematurely posted while I was typing. This post is all about their ability to identify and acquire major league ready talent through their analytics. Minor league and amateur scouting will take years to determine how good they are at that.

I think you have mentioned this before and to me, you just aren’t likely to hit on these guys.  Every once in a while, you get that Rodrigo Lopez but for the most part, these guys are not good players and are available for nothing for a reason.

 

  • Upvote 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Tony-OH said:

What do you mean they were undervalued by "us?"

Means wen into the offseason and learned that changeup. He also increased his velocity by going to a performance place, not because of something the organization did for him. I know he's tangibly given some credit to Holt for the changeup, but I don't think the Orioles under Elias suddenly developed Means.

As for Mullins, he was always a prospect. it wasn't until he finally decided on his own to give up switch hitting did he become an everyday guy. When the organization tried to makes some changes with him two years ago you saw how awful he was.

Elias felt so good about him he sent him all the way to AA in 2019.

Over his last 109 PAs, Mullins is slashing .242/.330/.400/.730. Not terrible, but let's not start calling him a success story of the regime.

When Means came up, I'm pretty sure everyone thought he was a JAG.  

Means didn't make the OH top 30 prospect list in 2017:  http://www.orioleshangout.com/2017/11/12/2017-orioles-top-30-prospects/

He was 28th in 2018:  http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/11/06/2018-top-30-prospects/

For some reason I can't find the 2019 rankings but MLB.com didn't have him in the top 30 list for 2019:  http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=bal

So yeah, I'd say Means was undervalued.  But if we're going to say that Means went outside of the organization to become better, that's fine, I'm not going to argue.  

Fair enough on Mullins, too. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is there such thing as an undervalued guy when you can get spin rates and launch angles for guys in the Midwest League (or whatever they're calling the Midwest League this year)?  It's tremendously harder to find your Benny Ayalas in this era where everyone knows everything about everyone.  In 1978 Earl knew Ayala could hit lefties but the Mets probably didn't, so they went out and got him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is there such thing as an undervalued guy when you can get spin rates and launch angles for guys in the Midwest League (or whatever they're calling the Midwest League this year)?  It's tremendously harder to find your Benny Ayalas in this era where everyone knows everything about everyone.  In 1978 Earl knew Ayala could hit lefties but the Mets probably didn't, so they went out and got him.

The Cardinals traded Ayala to us for a guy named Mike Dimmel.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

The Cardinals traded Ayala to us for a guy named Mike Dimmel.  

I wonder what info Earl had on Ayala.  Dimmel was a dud, .663 OPS in AAA.  But Ayala was 27 and also stuck in AAA and his overall numbers weren't impressive.  I want to know if he somehow got some splits, or scouting reports, or just got lucky.

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since the players listed did not cost us anything, I wouldn't exactly call them failures. More like not-successes. 

I never got the sense that poaching players from other organizations would be core to the rebuild. Of course they talked up analytics but Elias is too smart to let everything ride on being able to outsmart other teams. They have also talked about international and of course developing their own players through the draft.

I would consider Sulser, Lakins, and Alberto to be small wins which is about all I would expect.

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is there such thing as an undervalued guy when you can get spin rates and launch angles for guys in the Midwest League (or whatever they're calling the Midwest League this year)?  It's tremendously harder to find your Benny Ayalas in this era where everyone knows everything about everyone.  In 1978 Earl knew Ayala could hit lefties but the Mets probably didn't, so they went out and got him.

The Yankees somehow found Gio Urshela and Luke Voit and turned them into stars. Then again, I think they probably have a Houstonesque sign-stealing operation we don't fully know about yet. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Moshagge3 said:

The Yankees somehow found Gio Urshela and Luke Voit and turned them into stars. Then again, I think they probably have a Houstonesque sign-stealing operation we don't fully know about yet. 

Those two among many.   Didi's offense took a big step up when they got him.  Aaron HIcks' batting average went up 50 or so points.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

When Elias took over, we were told Sig's analytics would be able to identify players in other organizations that would be undervalued and acquired. Apparently, the rest of the league are doing the same things so it's no longer an advantage and the guys they have found have generally failed.

If you want to know why the team has completely stunk while trying to rebuild, it's been the absolute failure of Elias/Sig to acquire players that can help at the major league level through undervalued players. While we still don't know about the talent received in trades or the drafting ability of Sig/Elias, what we do know is they get an F at acquiring major league ready talent that is under utilized by other organizations.

Rio Ruiz: Fail
Wojo: Fail
Severino; Backup catcher at best on a good team
Valiaka: Utility guy at best
Andrew Velazquez: fail
Martin: .581 OPS, now an injury prone AAA guy.
Eshelmen: Long guy/AAA guy
Fulmer: Gave him quick look, gave up on him, quickly picked up and now pitching in Red bullpen with a 4.19 FIP
Urias: Fail
Alberto: back up guy or lower division starter
Armstrong: Middle relief at best
Plutko: long guy innings eater used poorly by coaching staff
Lakins: Middle reliever
Sulser: middle reliever
Valdez: Did they find him because of analytics or got lucky, not sure?
Broxton: fail
Aaron Brooks: Fail

 

Fry was a cast off from Seattle, gotten for only some International Money.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




  • Posts

    • I don’t like the wall. I think it’s affecting our hitters. I’ve mentioned before that I think it has totally warped Mountcastle into something he was never really meant to be. The guy came up as a pull-heavy HR hitter, and in his first season-plus (725 PAs), he puts up 38 HRs and a 116 wRC+. Since then, the wRC+ is down to 110, and his approach has totally changed, with his pull numbers plummeting (down from 39% in 2021 to less than 28% this year). He still hits the ball hard, but constantly underachieves his batted ball data — probably because he’s trying to avoid the pull field and hitting balls to the deepest parts of pretty much every other park. Will the same thing happen to Mayo? Maybe he has more pure power, but it’s always going to be a challenge for a RH slugger to survive with that wall. So much harder to do damage.   Beyond that, I think it’s also creating a serious risk of changing our LH hitters’ approaches too. These guys (Henderson, Holliday, Cowser, 2/3 of Adley) have come up with a reputation for being able to drive the ball to all fields. But how long does that continue when they just can’t hit it out to the opposite field? Our LH hitters had a combined 44 wRC+ at OPACY, and only one HR. They had the 3rd most balls hit to LF at home by LHHs, but the lowest wRC+ of any team on those balls (for the second straight year). The Royals, ironically enough, were the only team that was lower than a 70 wRC+ — that’s how much worse our lefties fared going oppo (at OPACY) than everyone else’s. By player: Gunnar Henderson: 112 wRC+ / .160 ISO (51 PAs) Adley Rutschman: 10 wRC+ / .026 ISO (38 PAs) Anthony Santander: 14 wRC+ / .095 ISO (43 PAs) Colton Cowser: 58 wRC+ / .057 ISO (36 PAs) Ryan O’Hearn: 47 wRC+ / .091 ISO (55 PAs) Cedric Mullins: 23 wRC+ / .100 ISO (41 PAs) Jackson Holliday: -72 wRC+ / .000 ISO (16 PAs)   On the road, they had a combined 126 wRC+ (with 9 HRs) going to left field, so it’s not like they’re bad at it. It’s just Death Valley out there in LF for them at OPACY.  How long will it be until these LH guys just start going full pull-happy? Essentially, the opposite of what’s happened with Mountcastle. When (a) your team’s philosophy is to focus on doing damage and (b) you can’t DO damage to the opposite field — the rational endpoint is just to try to pull everything. I don’t think that’s a good outcome. I think it makes them much worse hitters in the other 81 games, and I think it’s a terrible waste of a bunch of really talented hitters with all-field abilities.
    • Which core players beside Adley Rutschman struggled?
    • The entire commentary on Hyde and the team seems odd but have to admit there does seem to be something off.   Team seemed adrift for most of the 2nd half.  A very talented team went off the rails midway through the season mostly due to core players struggling and rookies not performing or filling in adequately for a few injured starters.    None of the position player trade line acquisitions performed that well.     Hyde seemed in over his head or at a loss on how to correct things, but he must have convinced Elias that he has a plan to fix things.  Curious to see what happens with the coaching staff.  
    • And or give up picks for QO pitchers 
    • They've averaged 92 wins a year the last 3 years in the most difficult environment in the sport with basically the greatest disadvantages in the sport. Something tells me they know a hell of a lot more about this than you do.    
    • Not when they aren't worthy. At minimum the hitting coaches should be el gonezo
    • That is the sign of a stable and successful organization.  Firing people.  Who could argue that?
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...