A different kind of Trade Deadline Strategy

[Aristotelian]

Any team doing their due diligence will realize that Diaz has been injured and terrible since those rankings, and Bannon has been merely terrible. If they get us anything it will just be players of equivalent (negligible) value. I just don't see how trading any player like that is going to help us. DJ might get us something but I'd rather trade Mancini and get something of real value while keeping DJ. 

[Moose Milligan]

I'm betting on a similar kind of Trade Deadline Strategy, which is somewhere between standing pat and being completely and utterly underwhelming.  

[billw76]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I am not sure there is no trade value here.

The O's have a Top 5 farm system now.  Some have them as high as #2 behind Tampa.   And when Wander Franco graduates in August the O's could have the top rated farm system.

Diaz (24) was the O's #8 prospect prior to the draft.   MLB.com still has him there because they have not added the July's draftee.

Bannon (25) is the O's #20 prospect on that same list.

Stewart at 27 years old has 21 homer and 64 RBI in 445 at bats in the majors.  And he still has 4 years of service time before he is a FA. And one option left.

I am not saying any of these are great players but to a team that has a farm system in the bottom half  of the majors these guys  may be attractive to add to their system.

 

There is zero value with any of those three right now.

Diaz would have value but he can't stay healthy long enough to build any, and if he could he would probably be on the ML roster right now replacing Stewart.

Bannon has had an absolutely terrible year after being hurt, so whatever value he had isn't there at the moment. 

You may be able to add Stewart or Bannon to a bigger deal as filler, but I can't see any GM trading anything of value for them straight up, not even a lottery ticket type.

[Moose Milligan]

23 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Any team doing their due diligence will realize that Diaz has been injured and terrible since those rankings, and Bannon has been merely terrible. If they get us anything it will just be players of equivalent (negligible) value. I just don't see how trading any player like that is going to help us. DJ might get us something but I'd rather trade Mancini and get something of real value while keeping DJ. 

Pains me to say it, but moving Mancini would probably be the best thing, though I'm not sure what we'd be able to get back for him.  It's been widely speculated on here.  Even then, it's a "heart says no, mind says yes" situation when it comes to trading him.  Emotionally, it'd suck but depending on the return it's most likely the right move.

I also don't feel the need to keep DJ Stewart, even though I like his OBP skills and he's fun when he gets on a homer tear.  Too injured, too often.  Diaz is whatever, IMO.  

Quite frankly, sans Mullins, I'd really like this organization to ship all these outfielders out one way or another and get ready for the new crop to come up.  Get rid of Santander, Stewart, Hays (yup, sorry @Frobby, he's just going to get hurt again), McKenna and see if someone will bite on Diaz.  Get ready for Cowser, Kjerstad (fingers crossed), Stowers, Haskin, etc.

"BUT MOOSE OMG WHO WILL PLAY THE CORNER OUTFIELD SPOTS NEXT YEAR!?!?!?" someone will invariably whine.

Someone will step up or we'll get some boring placeholder in the offseason.  I'm quite frankly tired of this current crop of outfielders that we have, it's nothing but disappointing production and injuries.  I don't see how any of them are really future pieces except if Hays can MAYBE stay healthy.  

[billw76]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm betting on a similar kind of Trade Deadline Strategy, which is somewhere between standing pat and being completely and utterly underwhelming.  

I'm thinking pretty similar. I could see Fry, Sulser, Scott and possibly Tate being moved, but I honestly don't see Mancini, Means or Mullins going anywhere at the deadline.

 

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Pains me to say it, but moving Mancini would probably be the best thing, though I'm not sure what we'd be able to get back for him.  It's been widely speculated on here.  Even then, it's a "heart says no, mind says yes" situation when it comes to trading him.  Emotionally, it'd suck but depending on the return it's most likely the right move.

I also don't feel the need to keep DJ Stewart, even though I like his OBP skills and he's fun when he gets on a homer tear.  Too injured, too often.  Diaz is whatever, IMO.  

Quite frankly, sans Mullins, I'd really like this organization to ship all these outfielders out one way or another and get ready for the new crop to come up.  Get rid of Santander, Stewart, Hays (yup, sorry @Frobby, he's just going to get hurt again), McKenna and see if someone will bite on Diaz.  Get ready for Cowser, Kjerstad (fingers crossed), Stowers, Haskin, etc.

"BUT MOOSE OMG WHO WILL PLAY THE CORNER OUTFIELD SPOTS NEXT YEAR!?!?!?" someone will invariably whine.

Someone will step up or we'll get some boring placeholder in the offseason.  I'm quite frankly tired of this current crop of outfielders that we have, it's nothing but disappointing production and injuries.  I don't see how any of them are really future pieces except if Hays can MAYBE stay healthy.  

I agree, corner OF is probably the easiest spot to fill through trade or free agency if needed. I would only hesitate to trade Stewart, Hays, and Santander because they all have some upside to build their trade value if we are patient.

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree, corner OF is probably the easiest spot to fill through trade or free agency if needed. I would only hesitate to trade Stewart, Hays, and Santander because they all have some upside to build their trade value if we are patient.

The only one I'd be interested in maybe keeping would be Hays.  Stewart's had plenty of chances, Santander is always hurt, it seems.  I like him but not enough to want to keep him around.

[Moose Milligan]

13 minutes ago, billw76 said:

I'm thinking pretty similar. I could see Fry, Sulser, Scott and possibly Tate being moved, but I honestly don't see Mancini, Means or Mullins going anywhere at the deadline.

 

I think Tate is coming around and will be an important bullpen piece moving forward.  

I'd be willing to listen to anyone/everyone on the roster but I wouldn't be actively shopping him.

[billw76]

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Pains me to say it, but moving Mancini would probably be the best thing, though I'm not sure what we'd be able to get back for him.  It's been widely speculated on here.  Even then, it's a "heart says no, mind says yes" situation when it comes to trading him.  Emotionally, it'd suck but depending on the return it's most likely the right move.

I also don't feel the need to keep DJ Stewart, even though I like his OBP skills and he's fun when he gets on a homer tear.  Too injured, too often.  Diaz is whatever, IMO.  

Quite frankly, sans Mullins, I'd really like this organization to ship all these outfielders out one way or another and get ready for the new crop to come up.  Get rid of Santander, Stewart, Hays (yup, sorry @Frobby, he's just going to get hurt again), McKenna and see if someone will bite on Diaz.  Get ready for Cowser, Kjerstad (fingers crossed), Stowers, Haskin, etc.

"BUT MOOSE OMG WHO WILL PLAY THE CORNER OUTFIELD SPOTS NEXT YEAR!?!?!?" someone will invariably whine.

Someone will step up or we'll get some boring placeholder in the offseason.  I'm quite frankly tired of this current crop of outfielders that we have, it's nothing but disappointing production and injuries.  I don't see how any of them are really future pieces except if Hays can MAYBE stay healthy.  

I'm all for moving on from the majority of the OFers we currently have besides Mullins and Hays, and if the right deal came along I'd move both of them, especially Mullins while he's at or close to peak value.

It would be interesting if they could make a deal with Seattle and get Noelvi Marte and Zach DeLoach.

 

[7Mo]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

The only one I'd be interested in maybe keeping would be Hays.  Stewart's had plenty of chances, Santander is always hurt, it seems.  I like him but not enough to want to keep him around.

I'd like to keep Hays for one more year. I think it's a safe bet that his value next July is way above where it is now.

Hopefully Santander has a good enough second half that he can be dealt this winter. I don't have any faith that Stewart builds value going forward so I hope someone wants the OBP and power for the rest of this year.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, 7Mo said:

I'd like to keep Hays for one more year. I think it's a safe bet that his value next July is way above where it is now.

Hopefully Santander has a good enough second half that he can be dealt this winter. I don't have any faith that Stewart builds value going forward so I hope someone wants the OBP and power for the rest of this year.

I think it's a coin flip.

He isn't consistently healthy and he isn't consistently productive.

I'm not in a rush to move him but I wouldn't turn down a fair offer.

 

[7Mo]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it's a coin flip.

He isn't consistently healthy and he isn't consistently productive.

I'm not in a rush to move him but I wouldn't turn down a fair offer.

 

Yes, it certainly depends on what is offered. 

[connja]

8 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Yes, it certainly depends on what is offered. 

Honestly we haven't had a good return at the trade deadline since Bedard.  Teams just aren't giving up top prospects unless you are trading a major contributor.  I think for us that is limited to Means or Mullins.   And they are not high salary guys, so limited incentive for us.  At best we hope to get back something that might turn out to be as good as them in the future.  

I suspect we'll trade some of those bullpen pitchers for a couple of lottery cards who more than likely turn out to be nothing.  And if they do nothing, that's probably OK also.

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Quite frankly, sans Mullins, I'd really like this organization to ship all these outfielders out one way or another and get ready for the new crop to come up.  Get rid of Santander, Stewart, Hays (yup, sorry @Frobby, he's just going to get hurt again), McKenna and see if someone will bite on Diaz.  Get ready for Cowser, Kjerstad (fingers crossed), Stowers, Haskin, etc.

"BUT MOOSE OMG WHO WILL PLAY THE CORNER OUTFIELD SPOTS NEXT YEAR!?!?!?" someone will invariably whine.

Someone will step up or we'll get some boring placeholder in the offseason.  I'm quite frankly tired of this current crop of outfielders that we have, it's nothing but disappointing production and injuries.  I don't see how any of them are really future pieces except if Hays can MAYBE stay healthy.  

I’m definitely not ready to write off Hays as someone who’s never going to get through a season healthy.   I have an almost irrational belief in him.  1.6 rWAR in 249 PA this year, 2.7 in 499 PA in his career, and that’s despite being relatively inexperienced and all the injury disruptions.   I can’t give up on a guy who might be a 4-5 WAR player (my opinion) in a year or two if he can escape the injury bug.   Sure I realize that’s a big if, but he’s got enough upside for me to take that chance while waiting on Cowser and other minor leaguers like Stowers to arrive.

Stewart’s in a different category.  He’s taken a step backwards on offense this year and defensively he’s a liability.   I like his plate discipline and power, but his contact skills just aren’t very good.  He’s basically a replacement level player and I’d be fine letting him go or we can just keep him until we have better options.  I don’t think he has any real trade value hough.   It’s disappointing, because I thought he might be a decent role player but it’s not panning out well.  

Santander is the guy who has really mystified me this year.   I didn’t think 2020 was real, but I thought at least 2019 was.  I’m tempted to give him another season and see if he can rebuild some value.   

The good thing is we do have some interesting outfielders in the pipeline, who will be plausible alternatives next year if the current outfielders can’t stay healthy or solidify their value.

 

[HowAboutThat]

Every team probably has their version of this thread where people are screaming, “what we have is priceless, everybody wants it!” And other people are screaming “no it isn’t.”

But what else are we gonna talk about?

The guys we have have no value. The healthy ones are terrible, the good ones are unhealthy. End of story.

Imagine how you would feel if we traded for any of the guys being mentioned here? Injury prone, bad defense, bad offense, Any combination of the above. We don’t have a single guy with slam-dunk trade value, And the guys who come closest(Mancini, Fry) are probably over priced.

I am interested in Mike’s parameters. What are his unstated goals for the deadline?

Edited July 25, 2021 by Philip