A trade exercise

[RZNJ]

The other day, a trade idea was mentioned for Matt Chapman and another for Tyler Glasnow.    The problem I had with both players is the amount of service time they'd be locked into with the Orioles which was essentialy the 2023 season.    They'd probably each require some prospects back to get them unless Glasnow is somehow non-tendered.

I don't think we are ready to make deals like that but I am not against trading prospects for prospects or players who have 1 or 2 years of ML experience but have lost a bit of their shine or haven't broken out yet.  So, let's say there is a young starter, 1 or 2 years of ML experience, who has faltered so far but was highly thought of at one time.     In that case, I might be willing to part with a Westburg, Stowers, etc.

Of course, this works for a 3B as well.

Here are some names of pitchers.   The rebuilding teams are the ones who probably want prospects so I'm looking at their rosters.

1) Zac Gallen (D-backs)  26 yo.   Looks like 4 years of service time left.

2) Tarik Skubal (Tigers)  24 yo   In his rookie year.

3) JT Brubaker (Pirates)  27 yo   4 or 5 years of service time

 

These are just a few names on bad teams who might like a 2 or 3 for 1 deal of prospects, not necesarily the ones I listed above but perhaps there is a deal to be made.   

[waroriole]

Tigers aren’t going to be selling. They’re further ahead than us in their rebuild and they play in an easier division. 

[jamalshw]

15 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Tigers aren’t going to be selling. They’re further ahead than us in their rebuild and they play in an easier division. 

Agreed. They have a good number of young pitchers, but their farm system is more position player heavy with Mize, Skubal and Manning in the majors. They went pitching heavy in the draft so they do have Jobe and Madden, but the rest of their top prospects are position players. 

[Aristotelian]

I'd rather just sign a guy and keep the prospects. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

 

I don't think we are ready to make deals like that but I am not against trading prospects for prospects or players who have 1 or 2 years of ML experience but have lost a bit of their shine or haven't broken out yet.  So, let's say there is a young starter, 1 or 2 years of ML experience, who has faltered so far but was highly thought of at one time.     In that case, I might be willing to part with a Westburg, Stowers, etc. 

I don't fully trust this iteration of management to tap into unrealized potential for someone like that.  

If we were the SF Giants?  All day, sure.  Elias and his minions have done a good job of bringing us into the 21st century with regards to advanced metrics and a presence in South America.  

I have my concerns with him, this being one of them.  Are the instructors in place to help someone who was once highly thought of to turn it around?  Right now, I'm not sure.

I like the idea, I just don't know if we have the people in place to make these types of trades a win for us.  

[RZNJ]

24 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't fully trust this iteration of management to tap into unrealized potential for someone like that.  

If we were the SF Giants?  All day, sure.  Elias and his minions have done a good job of bringing us into the 21st century with regards to advanced metrics and a presence in South America.  

I have my concerns with him, this being one of them.  Are the instructors in place to help someone who was once highly thought of to turn it around?  Right now, I'm not sure.

I like the idea, I just don't know if we have the people in place to make these types of trades a win for us.  

The three pitchers I mentioned aren't exactly in the same category as the failed prospect category.   These guys have had some success in a ML rotation already.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The three pitchers I mentioned aren't exactly in the same category as the failed prospect category.   These guys have had some success in a ML rotation already.

Sure, I get that.  

But Chris Holt ain't a wizard.  

 

[RZNJ]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Sure, I get that.  

But Chris Holt ain't a wizard.  

 

Didn't say he was.  He's also not a chump.   He's a ML pitching coach.   When the pitchers pitch well they are geniuses.   When the pitchers pitch poorly, they are dummies.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Didn't say he was.  He's also not a chump.   He's a ML pitching coach.   When the pitchers pitch well they are geniuses.   When the pitchers pitch poorly, they are dummies.

I sorta see where you're coming from.  Leo Mazzone wasn't a genius, I don't think.  I recall an anecdote about Maddux where he was throwing a bullpen, working exclusively from the stretch.  Maddux explained to him that he was going to most likely have to throw a more important pitch in a game situation while dealing from the stretch.  Hadn't dawned on Leo before.

None of our pitching prospects have stepped up this year.  Tyler Wells is the only one that's delivered anything, he's been a pleasant surprise.  Akin and Kremer were massive disappointments.  They actually regressed.  

I didn't say that you said Holt was a wizard, that was a tongue in cheek comment in regards to someone here earlier this year who thought he was.  

Like I said, I don't trust this coaching staff to tease better performances out of pitchers, at least not yet.  Gallen would be a fantastic arm to get and if we could somehow work a trade that would make sense, they should do it.  But IMO the question is...is this the type of environment, the type of coaching staff that can make a guy like that better?  Yeah, we should definitely try to acquire guys like that.  The philosophy is good, IMO...I just dunno if Holt's the guy.  

[Just Regular]

I like the Gallen mention just as in his career its already happened with Jazz Chisholm.   ARZ is basically where we are, and he's their John Means.   I am sure in time we're trading for good pitchers, but by Elias' standard with the gaggle a couple weeks back about maximizing postseason appearance odds over the long haul I expect he'll look for more probability from the As Is roster.

In the category of "Good Hurt Pitcher" like Glasnow, Kenta Maeda had Tommy John the other day.   I went by Cot's to see how he profiles for 2022-2023, and it feels like he is so cheap the Twins can easily hold and keep him for their 2023 team themselves, but it reminded me how distinctive his contract terms are.

8 years/$25M (2016-23)

• signed by LA Dodgers as a free agent 1/7/16
• $1M signing bonus
• 16-23: $3M annually
• annual roster bonus: $150,000 for making Opening Day roster
• $6.5M annually in performance bonuses based on games started: $1M each 15, 20 GS. $1.5M each for 25, 30, 32 GS
• $3.5M annually in performance bonuses based on innings pitched: $250,000 each for 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190 IP. $750,000 200 IP
• assignment bonus: $1M with each trade
• becomes a free agent at contract’s end
• perks: jersey No. 18. Four round-trip business-class airline tickets between Japan and LA annually. Interpreter. Travel expenses, accommodations, visa costs for a player support staff member

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I sorta see where you're coming from.  Leo Mazzone wasn't a genius, I don't think.  I recall an anecdote about Maddux where he was throwing a bullpen, working exclusively from the stretch.  Maddux explained to him that he was going to most likely have to throw a more important pitch in a game situation while dealing from the stretch.  Hadn't dawned on Leo before.

None of our pitching prospects have stepped up this year.  Tyler Wells is the only one that's delivered anything, he's been a pleasant surprise.  Akin and Kremer were massive disappointments.  They actually regressed.  

I didn't say that you said Holt was a wizard, that was a tongue in cheek comment in regards to someone here earlier this year who thought he was.  

Like I said, I don't trust this coaching staff to tease better performances out of pitchers, at least not yet.  Gallen would be a fantastic arm to get and if we could somehow work a trade that would make sense, they should do it.  But IMO the question is...is this the type of environment, the type of coaching staff that can make a guy like that better?  Yeah, we should definitely try to acquire guys like that.  The philosophy is good, IMO...I just dunno if Holt's the guy.  

I've seen so many pitching coaches come and go, not just from this team but from every team.   Some guys are probably on their 4th and 5th teams.   I'm not saying some guys aren't better communicators than others but I'm of the belief that Holt is no worse than your average pitching coach.   He could be better.     I thought Adair was less than average but again, who really knows.    George Bamberger and Ray Miller were considered pitching gurus and what was Ray Miller's magic?   Work fast and throw strikes?    Thanks for bringing up Mazzone.   A classic case of a pitching guru when he had Maddux, Smoltz, and Glavine and not being a genius with the dreck the O's had at the time.

Sometimes the light bulb goes on with players and pitchers.    I don't believe Holt told Kremer and Akins anything between last September to this May to make them go from promising to awful.   As long as the pitchers like Holt and respect him, that's good enough for me.   All the other stuff can be taken with a huge grain of salt.

[RZNJ]

Ok, so lets' talk about Gallen.   He's a promising young pitcher who is already establishing himself in the majors.   Is he worth a Bradish, Baumann, Stowers package?     That's two pitchers with good arms who are both question marks as future starters and a potential power bat in the Arizona outfield.    If not, can we make a deal without including D.L. Hall?

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I sorta see where you're coming from.  Leo Mazzone wasn't a genius, I don't think.  I recall an anecdote about Maddux where he was throwing a bullpen, working exclusively from the stretch.  Maddux explained to him that he was going to most likely have to throw a more important pitch in a game situation while dealing from the stretch.  Hadn't dawned on Leo before.

None of our pitching prospects have stepped up this year.  Tyler Wells is the only one that's delivered anything, he's been a pleasant surprise.  Akin and Kremer were massive disappointments.  They actually regressed.  

I didn't say that you said Holt was a wizard, that was a tongue in cheek comment in regards to someone here earlier this year who thought he was.  

Like I said, I don't trust this coaching staff to tease better performances out of pitchers, at least not yet.  Gallen would be a fantastic arm to get and if we could somehow work a trade that would make sense, they should do it.  But IMO the question is...is this the type of environment, the type of coaching staff that can make a guy like that better?  Yeah, we should definitely try to acquire guys like that.  The philosophy is good, IMO...I just dunno if Holt's the guy.  

I don’t want to write off Holt just yet, but the staff has done nothing this year to suggest he’s an above average pitching coach.   My guess is he’ll get another year to prove he is.   

[Can_of_corn]

35 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Sure, I get that.  

But Chris Holt ain't a wizard.  

 

I haven't looked but I think most of the guys that pitched for the O's in 2020 and 2021 had better results in 2020.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t want to write off Holt just yet, but the staff has done nothing this year to suggest he’s an above average pitching coach.   My guess is he’ll get another year to prove he is.   

Yep.  I think he gets another year, too.