The Mullins market

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is a lot of risk to trading Mullins this off season.  Hayes is injury prone.  McKenna is having trouble hitting a major league fastball.  Cowser is in A Ball and we do not know how he will do at higher levels.

If Cowser moves up fast next year than the risk of trading Mullins next off season may not be as much,  though he probably will not be the player that Mullins has become.

With Stowers on the fast track to the majors I would think Santander and Mancini are more tradable for the O's, though both are coming off down years and probably will not bring more later.

There is zero risk for a 110 loss team. 

The only risk is you look bad if he continues at his current level and the guys you get don't pan out.

I'm pretty sure Elias is immune to embarrassment. 

[Aristotelian]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I would say you greatly overrate Mullins.   I do like him, and am not in any big hurry to trade him, but I’d always be willing to listen.   

True, he may have more regression risk than any player in MLB right now. I am not counting on him for 5+ WAR every year. On the other hand, if he puts up another 3+ WAR season he might actually increase his trade value from a body of work standpoint. I guess no player is untradeable but he makes perfect sense for us to build around. Has there even been a comparable trade where a rebuilding team has traded their best player still under team control for four years? I can live with the risk of the opportunity cost of missing out on one of the 20 year SS's but Mullins putting up 5 WAR for somebody else would be too much to bear IMO. 

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

There is zero risk for a 110 loss team. 

The only risk is you look bad if he continues at his current level and the guys you get don't pan out.

I'm pretty sure Elias is immune to embarrassment. 

I don't think the 2022 O's will lose 100 games.  Not with who they are bringing up next season.  Adley, Grayson, Stowers, DL Hall, Bradish.  And I think Elias will be opportunistic with his adds this off season.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

I don't think the 2022 O's will lose 100 games.  Not with who they are bringing up next season.  Adley, Grayson, Stowers, DL Hall, Bradish.  And I think Elias will be opportunistic with his adds this off season.

Did you think the 2021 O's would lose 110?

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Not to muddy the Mullins thread but I’d claim Clint Frazier and trade Mancini. You’d have to view the trade as Frazier + whatever we get for Mancini. 

Not sure about Frazier but I would be actively shopping Mancini and Santander, and listening to offers on Hays. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is a lot of risk to trading Mullins this off season.  Hayes is injury prone.  McKenna is having trouble hitting a major league fastball.  Cowser is in A Ball and we do not know how he will do at higher levels.

If Cowser moves up fast next year than the risk of trading Mullins next off season may not be as much,  though he probably will not be the player that Mullins has become.

With Stowers on the fast track to the majors I would think Santander and Mancini are more tradable for the O's, though both are coming off down years and probably will not bring more later.

One thing to appreciate is that Mullins’ 2022 season has a lot of value.   He’s only going to make $600 k or so (unless the rules change), and he should be worth a lot more than that.   Once that season is over, you can’t get something of value for it.    So, you have to consider whether it’s worth it to keep it.

For me, I just think that we should know what other teams would be willing to give up for Mullins now.   Nobody says we have to pull the trigger.   Sure there’s risk in trading him.  There’s also risk in not trading him.   And to evaluate that risk, you need to know what his market value is.   The only way to know is to find out from other teams.  

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did you think the 2021 O's would lose 110?

I don't remember predicting what the O's record would be but it didn't surprise me.  Elias said he was not trying to win before the 2021 season started.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Not sure about Frazier but I would be actively shopping Mancini and Santander, and listening to offers on Hays. 

Frazier has had issues with concussions and vertigo.  I wish him well but wouldn't offer him a contract.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

I don't remember predicting what the O's record would be but it didn't surprise me.  Elias said he was not trying to win before the 2021 season started.

Has he said he's trying to win in 2022?

I don't think partial seasons from two players are going to move the needle that much if that is all Elias does.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

One thing to appreciate is that Mullins’ 2022 season has a lot of value.   He’s only going to make $600 k or so (unless the rules change), and he should be worth a lot more than that.   Once that season is over, you can’t get something of value for it.    So, you have to consider whether it’s worth it to keep it.

For me, I just think that we should know what other teams would be willing to give up for Mullins now.   Nobody says we have to pull the trigger.   Sure there’s risk in trading him.  There’s also risk in not trading him.   And to evaluate that risk, you need to know what his market value is.   The only way to know is to find out from other teams.  

I am fine with listening on Mullins.  But the return has be to a blockbuster.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Has he said he's trying to win in 2022?

I don't think partial seasons from two players are going to move the needle that much if that is all Elias does.

With Adley and Grayson in the majors I doubt  Elias would say he is not trying to win. That would be a bad look.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am fine with listening on Mullins.  But the return has be to be blockbuster.

Once again, what is wrong with a equitable return?

Do you go through life having to win every transaction?

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

With Adley and Grayson in the majors I doubt  Elias would say he is not trying to win. That would be a bad look.

And Elias, he's obviously worried about bad looks.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Once again, what is wrong with a equitable return?

Do you go through life having to win every transaction?

 

I would not trade Mullins for an equitable return.  I would have to be overwhelmed.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

I would not trade Mullins for an equitable return.  

Why not?

If it strengthens the team in the long run isn't that the goal?

I'm pretty sure that Elias wasn't hired to win trades.