“Don’t worry, we will spend next year”

[Aristotelian]

23 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

@Sports GuyWould this thread exist if we gave Josh Harrison 2/20+?  

Yes, because he will consider any offseason a failure if Mullins is not traded and we sign anyone other than Stroman and Kris Bryant. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Yes, because he will consider any offseason a failure if Mullins is not traded and we sign anyone other than Stroman and Kris Bryant. 

Ooo, you got me!  This is such an intelligent post.  

[Explosivo]

32 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

What?

We shouldn't sign good players because we may have prospects that may be good?  I am not a fan of that logic. Sorry. 

If you think that’s my angle, you aren’t paying attention. Redundancy only creates log jams and serves to eat up valuable resources. A mid market team can not sacrifice doing so. Further, the youngsters aren’t ready yet. The best time a mid market team should be utilizing their resources is when their window of opportunity for the playoffs has arrived. That will happen in two years. In two years, you will see a different approach. Heck, next year you will see a different approach but our window has not started yet. Some of our young talent will be on display this year, more will be next year and at that time, you will see the checkbook open up when we can clearly see the missing pieces needed for a championship.

 

one of those pieces is obvious, we will need starting pitching. It will be at that point when we say, ok, time to sacrifice a little of our future to win in the present. We can afford to do so because we are constantly getting more and more young talent from Latin America. See how this works?

[connja]

I don't think we'll need to go Free Agent route for bats next year, and should focus on adding strong pitching that allows guys like Hall to come up as a #5 or even reliever.  

And I don't think anyone should expect us to go form 50mm to 150mm when ready to compete.  I think we'll compete around 100mm like the Rays.  

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Explosivo said:

If you think that’s my angle, you aren’t paying attention. Redundancy only creates log jams and serves to eat up valuable resources. A mid market team can not sacrifice doing so. Further, the youngsters aren’t ready yet. The best time a mid market team should be utilizing their resources is when their window of opportunity for the playoffs has arrived. That will happen in two years. In two years, you will see a different approach. Heck, next year you will see a different approach but our window has not started yet. Some of our young talent will be on display this year, more will be next year and at that time, you will see the checkbook open up when we can clearly see the missing pieces needed for a championship.

 

one of those pieces is obvious, we will need starting pitching. It will be at that point when we say, ok, time to sacrifice a little of our future to win in the present. We can afford to do so because we are constantly getting more and more young talent from Latin America. See how this works?

Ok, so this checkbook opening up thing..I provided the list of impending FAs.  With what you know now, who on the list is worth spending on?

[luismatos4prez]

My(probably naive) hope is they sign Andrelton Simmons to a 2 year deal this offseason so SS isn't a concern next year. Westburg/Vavra/Jones/Urias/Mateo/etc can battle it out for 2B/3B next year.

If they're going to spend next year, it would have to be on starting pitching. DeGrom, Bauer, Clevinger, Eovaldi, Walker, and Syndergaard are some names that jump out. The payroll will be like 40-50M again next year so there's no reason they can't afford one of these guys. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, luismatos4prez said:

My(probably naive) hope is they sign Andrelton Simmons to a 2 year deal this offseason so SS isn't a concern next year. Westburg/Vavra/Jones/Urias/Mateo/etc can battle it out for 2B/3B next year.

If they're going to spend next year, it would have to be on starting pitching. DeGrom, Bauer, Clevinger, Eovaldi, Walker, and Syndergaard are some names that jump out. The payroll will be like 40-50M again next year so there's no reason they can't afford one of these guys. 

Simmons hasn’t been good for a few years(he was worth less than a replacement level player in 2021) and his defense has been declining, as we typically see from MIers in their low 30s.

[Moose Milligan]

Next year never comes.

[Explosivo]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok, so this checkbook opening up thing..I provided the list of impending FAs.  With what you know now, who on the list is worth spending on?

Impossible to tell at this point. This year’s performance from them will be telling, but I will be keeping my eye on every pitcher available. We will need pitching and a lot of it. I obviously have high hopes on our bats. I don’t think we need that unless there’s a veteran bat that can help complete the team. Kind of like what Tampa did with Cruz. (Even though that didn’t work out)

What we will be looking for is a Cubs situation where the team gets blown up and every player will be available. That’s where you see us make moves. Competing in the winter meetings for who can get the most money and biggest deal is not really a thing I think Elias would do. My tell for that is again, Houston. I don’t think they are going to overpay to get Correa back. Instead, it’s next man up.

Edited December 1, 2021 by Explosivo

[luismatos4prez]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Simmons hasn’t been good for a few years(he was worth less than a replacement level player in 2021) and his defense has been declining, as we typically see from MIers in their low 30s.

That depends on what defensive metrics you look at.

Baseball Savant's OAA lists him at +16, which is very much in line with his typical outstanding fielding (5th overall out of all fielders in baseball).

DRS had him at +15 which is a bit of a drop off from his standards but still excellent (3rd overall out of all fielders in baseball)

UZR had him at -0.1 which is unimpressive. Middle of the pack at best.

What do you make of all that? I really don't know. But JJ Hardy was still playing great defense when he was 33 until injuries got him. Cal was still playing SS at a high level through 34. Simmons is only 32. 

[Absltgreek]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Why would we sign a bunch of FA when we’ll be adding AR, Stowers, Westburg, and Gunnar, to the hitting mix. GR and Hall as well. 
 

The lineup will be decent/good once AR is up this year. Will only be better next year. The bullpen looks like it’s could be coming together, but that only lasts if it doesn’t get burned out. 

Overall, I think the lineup and bullpen are ready to “compete” next year. Or darn close. It’s the rotation. What do with do with Means?  If we keep him, who pitches behind Means, GR, and Hall?

Realistically, only 2 or 3 of those 6 will see their potential fulfilled. Given those realities, and the severe lack of big names next year, i'm in full support of making a big splash now, 1-2 years early. Get Correa for SS (and if the SS's coming up do develop, you have the potential to move Correa to another position as he ages), and get Stroman for the rotation. If all the hitting develops, you can trade for more pitching, but we have such a low payroll, and will have low cost controlled young players, that adding 40-60mil/yr right now should be easy to bolster the team for both the short and long term:

 

C - FA/Adley later

1B - Mountcastle/Mancini/Adley

2B - Urias/odor (westburg? Norby? Vavra?)

SS - Correa (westburg? Gunnar down the line?)

3B - Guiterrez (sp?) /with Mayo? Westburg? Gunnar? down the line

LF - Hays (Kjerstad, etc?)

CF - Mullins (Cowser, etc.)

RF - Santander (Stowers, Kjerstad, etc.)

DH - Mancini (whoever is not starting from adley, stowers, hays, etc.)

 

SP - Means

SP - Stroman

SP - Zimmerman/Lowther/Akin

SP - GRod/DL Hall/Bradish

 

RP - Wells, the remaining pitchers in the org.

 

That's a fun team, both short and long term

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, Explosivo said:

Impossible to tell at this point. This year’s performance from them will be telling, but I will be keeping my eye on every pitcher available. We will need pitching and a lot of it. I obviously have high hopes on our bats. I don’t think we need that unless there’s a veteran bat that can help complete the team. Kind of like what Tampa did with Cruz. (Even though that didn’t work out)

What we will be looking for is a Cubs situation where the team gets blown up and every player will be available. That’s where you see us make moves. Competing in the winter meetings for who can get the most money and biggest deal is not really a thing I think Elias would do. My tell for that is again, Houston. I don’t think they are going to overpay to get Correa back. Instead, it’s next man up.

I tend to agree that we won’t be in the market and I also agree that we shouldn’t.  Not because we can’t afford it but because it’s just not smart.

The problem is, for this to work, they have to hit on most of their guys and that just isn’t reality.  Pitching isn’t looking good at all.  
 

I think they can piece together enough of an offense and hopefully a good defense but I worry about pitching and I see no one on that list that excites me outside of maybe Clevinger and Thor but even they have their big issues.

[Explosivo]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I tend to agree that we won’t be in the market and I also agree that we shouldn’t.  Not because we can’t afford it but because it’s just not smart.

The problem is, for this to work, they have to hit on most of their guys and that just isn’t reality.  Pitching isn’t looking good at all.  
 

I think they can piece together enough of an offense and hopefully a good defense but I worry about pitching and I see no one on that list that excites me outside of maybe Clevinger and Thor but even they have their big issues.

Let me comb over the Astros success rate for their previous draft classes. I’m curious to see the clip they are operating. I’m a tech guy and love the modern use of cameras coupled with real time results and analytics. It’s just a different way to train and focus on precisely what it takes to get better, every day. Guys like Kyle Tucker, altuve, Bergman, etc. it just seems like the Astros (and in turn the Orioles) have figured out the best way to project future talent and also propel them to get their faster and with greater accuracy in result. 

[Absltgreek]

Just now, Explosivo said:

Let me comb over the Astros success rate for their previous draft classes. I’m curious to see the clip they are operating. I’m a tech guy and love the modern use of cameras coupled with real time results and analytics. It’s just a different way to train and focus on precisely what it takes to get better, every day. Guys like Kyle Tucker, altuve, Bergman, etc. it just seems like the Astros (and in turn the Orioles) have figured out the best way to project future talent and also propel them to get their faster and with greater accuracy in result. 

You can't really compare the success the Astros have had with their hitters with the Orioles (yet). The Astros' players have made it to the majors and succeeded. While the O's players are doing very well in the minors, until they prove that success in the Majors, we really don't know how successful the program will be/is yet.

[Camden_yardbird]

I realize its far to early in the off season, but I feel like the OD tee shirts are already writing themselves.

Orioles 2022

"I expected a real off season and all I got was an Odor."