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What’s your 2022 OPS projection for Anthony Santander?


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What’s your 2022 OPS projection for Anthony Santander?  

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  1. 1. What’s your 2022 OPS projection for Anthony Santander?


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  • Poll closed on 02/28/22 at 22:13

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If he could ever stay healthy... I think he's an 800+ guy.  I like him more than most around here but I'd still move him if he has a nice first half.  So many OF in the org and a guy I just don't trust to stay in the lineup.  He sure can be fun to watch when he's on a power streak though.

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1 hour ago, Pickles said:

How moronic do you think ML GMs are that they would have been fooled by 39 games which ended, predictably, in season ending injury?

SG is correct that in hindsight he had higher value back then. Maybe not elite value, but more so than currently. You may be right it is very possible Elias shopped him but was not wowed enough by any of the offers to justify trading him. I was fine with keeping him since he still had several years of control and some upside to increase his value further. Unfortunately it didn't work out that way. 

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6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Who said they had to overvalue him?

My suggestion at the time was something like a top 10 guy and a top 15 guy..say something like Bradish and Pinto or something like that.

For his service time, age and upside, that’s a reasonable return and not an overvalue.  Even now, you could argue that it’s a fair deal even with his injuries although I think the chances of you getting that deal before 2021 are greater than today.

My point is simply that there has been no real change in his value in the last year.

Very minor?

Sure.

But nobody was giving up anything for him 12 months ago that they probably wouldn't now.

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4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

SG is correct that in hindsight he had higher value back then. Maybe not elite value, but more so than currently. You may be right it is very possible Elias shopped him but was not wowed enough by any of the offers to justify trading him. I was fine with keeping him since he still had several years of control and some upside to increase his value further. Unfortunately it didn't work out that way. 

Higher?

Sure.

But it's negligible.  

We don't need to be bemoaning losing the "chance" to trade him 12 months ago at "peak" value.

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1 hour ago, Pickles said:

Higher?

Sure.

But it's negligible.  

We don't need to be bemoaning losing the "chance" to trade him 12 months ago at "peak" value.

Sure we do because he wasn’t dealt and if they don’t deal him this year and he sucks in 2022 and/or is oft injured again, then you DFA him or don’t offer him arbitration…and then you will have lost him for nothing.

We know that at least the Marlins wanted him last year, at least reportedly.  A deal could have been worked out.  That same team has now gone out and, stupidly, signed Avisail Garcia to a big deal.  It’s likely that the Marlins ship has sailed unless they go with the DH in the NL and they want him for another bat.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure we do because he wasn’t dealt and if they don’t deal him this year and he sucks in 2022 and/or is oft injured again, then you DFA him or don’t offer him arbitration…and then you will have lost him for nothing.

We know that at least the Marlins wanted him last year, at least reportedly.  A deal could have been worked out.  That same team has now gone out and, stupidly, signed Avisail Garcia to a big deal.  It’s likely that the Marlins ship has sailed unless they go with the DH in the NL and they want him for another bat.

When I look at him I don't regret not trading him in the past because he's never had much value; I'm more interested in whether he could establish some value and we could get something going forward.

I guess I would just rather roll the dice with him than two random 45s from Miami.

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6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

When I look at him I don't regret not trading him in the past because he's never had much value; I'm more interested in whether he could establish some value and we could get something going forward.

I guess I would just rather roll the dice with him than two random 45s from Miami.

Well that’s really the crux of the discussion.  Would you rather have 2 more Kyle Bradish type guys, the roster spot and money or Santander?

If you would rather have Santander, that’s fine but I tend to doubt his value eclipses 2 Bradish type guys and we aren’t winning anything with him, so why keep him?

That was my argument a year ago.  It’s my argument now and considering he just went through another injury filled year where he also didn’t hit well, I would suspect that my argument is correct.  And now, we run the risk of losing him for nothing.

It’s highly unlikely the Orioles tender him a contract for 2023 unless he shows he can stay healthy and produce well.  Those are 2 things he has never proven he can do.

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34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well that’s really the crux of the discussion.  Would you rather have 2 more Kyle Bradish type guys, the roster spot and money or Santander?

If you would rather have Santander, that’s fine but I tend to doubt his value eclipses 2 Bradish type guys and we aren’t winning anything with him, so why keep him?

That was my argument a year ago.  It’s my argument now and considering he just went through another injury filled year where he also didn’t hit well, I would suspect that my argument is correct.  And now, we run the risk of losing him for nothing.

It’s highly unlikely the Orioles tender him a contract for 2023 unless he shows he can stay healthy and produce well.  Those are 2 things he has never proven he can do.

I think Bradish is pretty ambitious for Santander.  I think two of them is a pipe dream- even at the peak of his value.  I couldn't care at all about the money or roster spot.  And if he stinks in 2022 I'm not worried about potentially DFAing him.

He's got the potential to put a 4-5 WAR campaign.  I believe that's his upside.  And he's ML ready.  He's cheap.  And he's here.

I'll take that before a dart throw- which I admit we value differently apparently. 

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40 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Santander will play 2022 at 27 years old.  We don't know if he has reach his peak yet.

Santander putting up 15 WAR over the next three years is not unprecedented.  It's highly unlikely, of course, but this is a player with some upside.  This is not Odor.

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2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Santander putting up 15 WAR over the next three years is not unprecedented.  It's highly unlikely, of course, but this is a player with some upside.  This is not Odor.

Odor is 28, has a career rWAR of 6.8, career high of 2.7, career OPS+ of 88, career OBP of 289.

Santander is 27, has a career rWAR of 2.6, career high of 1.5 (not counting his fine 37 games in 2020 {1.6}), career OPS+ of 97, career OBP of 290.

His 2020 was really good but if you look at the total body of work it isn't dissimilar to Odor.

I don't know if 15 WAR would be unprecedented by someone with his career to date, but it's pretty darn unlikely.

I'm just guessing here but I don't think the list of position players that managed 15 WAR in a three season span is all that large.

ESPN has 35 players at 5 WAR or above in 2021.

39 in 2019

32 in 2018

https://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders

 

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