What’s your 2022 OPS Projection for Trey Mancini?

[Frobby]

Trey finished at .758 last year but was higher than that for much of the season.  His career OPS is .804, with a high of .899 in 2019 and a low of .715 in 2018.   So, there’s a lot of leeway in his track record.   What do you think we see in 2022?

[Big Mac]

I expect at least a modest bounce back but think it will be closer to his 2017 level rather than 2019.  I went with .810-.839.

[Moose Milligan]

.825

[Pickles]

I put him at 780-809.  I think he's a little more consistent than last year, and still an above average hitter, but I don't think 2019 is happening again.  And if I were a betting man, I'd say he'll be the most hurt by the new dimensions.  

[wildcard]

A repeat of 2019.  The question will it be with the O's?

[Sports Guy]

780-810 sounds right…I would say 800, give or take. 

[Sports Guy]

Btw,  no way all these guys are going to be in the area the majority of people are predicting.  

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw,  no way all these guys are going to be in the area the majority of people are predicting.  

I’m not sure I follow your meaning.   Are you saying the “consensus” is too optimistic?   Or just that things will vary randomly better or worse than expected for a group of players?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not sure I follow your meaning.   Are you saying the “consensus” is too optimistic?   Or just that things will vary randomly better or worse than expected for a group of players?

So far, we are seeing people predict everyone to basically be in the 760-900ish range.  Zero chance that happens for several guys in the lineup over the course of a full season worth of at bats.

The team OPS last year was 705.  With the numbers people are predicting, you would expect the team to have an OPs on the upper 700s, which probably makes them one of the 5 best offenses in the majors.  Zippy chance that’s happening.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So far, we are seeing people predict everyone to basically be in the 760-900ish range.  Zero chance that happens for several guys in the lineup over the course of a full season worth of at bats.

The team OPS last year was 705.  With the numbers people are predicting, you would expect the team to have an OPs on the upper 700s, which probably makes them one of the 5 best offenses in the majors.  Zippy chance that’s happening.

Well, to be fair, I decided to start with the better hitters on the team.  Next will be Urias.   Once you get past him, we’re looking at Odor/Mateo/Gutierrez/Stewart/McKenna/backup C.   I don’t think anyone will be predicting high numbers for those folks. (Stewart could be half decent if things go well, I guess.)

I do think you’re right that some guys I’ve already listed will disappoint.   Who it will be is anyone’s guess (which is kind of the point of the exercise, if there is a point other than just to have fun during a dead period).
 

[OriolesMagic83]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, to be fair, I decided to start with the better hitters on the team.  Next will be Urias.   Once you get past him, we’re looking at Odor/Mateo/Gutierrez/Stewart/McKenna/backup C.   I don’t think anyone will be predicting high numbers for those folks. (Stewart could be half decent if things go well, I guess.)

I do think you’re right that some guys I’ve already listed will disappoint.   Who it will be is anyone’s guess (which is kind of the point of the exercise, if there is a point other than just to have fun during a dead period).
 

Anxiously awaiting the Odor/Gutierrez/McKenna projections.  It looks like maybe 6/9 positions on the team should be average or better.   I think Urias will be at least close to average.  Whether players like Odor/Gutierrez/McKenna are just below average or putrid will determine whether the O's offense is average or well below average.

[Pickles]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So far, we are seeing people predict everyone to basically be in the 760-900ish range.  Zero chance that happens for several guys in the lineup over the course of a full season worth of at bats.

The team OPS last year was 705.  With the numbers people are predicting, you would expect the team to have an OPs on the upper 700s, which probably makes them one of the 5 best offenses in the majors.  Zippy chance that’s happening.

Eh.  In this thread the vase majority have shared the same projection you did.

Nobody is going to predict somebody having a terrible year, though that will surely happen.

[OriolesMagic83]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So far, we are seeing people predict everyone to basically be in the 760-900ish range.  Zero chance that happens for several guys in the lineup over the course of a full season worth of at bats.

The team OPS last year was 705.  With the numbers people are predicting, you would expect the team to have an OPs on the upper 700s, which probably makes them one of the 5 best offenses in the majors.  Zippy chance that’s happening.

I guess a lot of us are presuming health for these players, which might not make much sense in Hays or Santander's case.  A player or players is almost certainly to get hurt and get replaced by someone w a .500 OPS. 

I would say that fans of a team are naturally optimistic.  Most of us want to cheer for a team that if it isn;t good, at least is getting better.  I think most of us expect the core of the offense to be in the .775 to .825 range vs. near .900, but that would still be the best O's offense since the 90's.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

It would be cool to come up with the average Hangout predicted OPS and compare it to the predicted OPS by the experts.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I guess a lot of us are presuming health for these players, which might not make much sense in Hays or Santander's case.  A player or players is almost certainly to get hurt and get replaced by someone w a .500 OPS. 

I would say that fans of a team are naturally optimistic.  Most of us want to cheer for a team that if it isn;t good, at least is getting better.  I think most of us expect the core of the offense to be in the .775 to .825 range vs. near .900, but that would still be the best O's offense since the 90's.

 

When I do my OPS projections spreadsheet, and project the plate appearances for each player, I always (1) assume that every player will miss at least some time, and (2) build in some PA for players who aren’t even in my projections (who I just list as “other” and assume a .650 OPS).    Based on past experience, that’s usually 400 - 500 PA, sometimes more if there are a very high number of injuries or some major trades.