What’s your 2022 OPS projection for Adley Rutschman?

[Frobby]

I already asked his question in a non-poll thread earlier this offseason, but I’m hoping for more responses now.   Last year Adley posted .901 at Bowie and .896 at Norfolk.   The outside projections I’ve seen all have him in the .720 - .799 range this year.   What’s your take?

[Sports Guy]

Last year, 24 catchers had 350 PA or more.

Of those 24, 14 had an OPS under 750, 9 of which were 710 or worse.  5 had an OPS over 800 and another C was at 797.

Adley should be over 750.  The question is will he go over 800.  Posey was well over 800 in his first full season  and was over 800 for most seasons of his career.  So, I can kind of expect Adley to be the same.  It’s a different sport now vs when posey came up but I still think Adley should be able to be at that level immediately.

 

[wildcard]

850  if the don't play too much at catcher.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

850  if the don't play too much at catcher.

What’s your idea of “too much?”   I’m expecting him to catch 4-5 times a week.  

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

850  if the don't play too much at catcher.

That’s where I’m at. Everything I’ve seen about him says he’s a special player. He’s got the experience and maturity to play at the ML level. I just don’t think he’ll need the breaking in period that a lot of rookies need. He’ll battle Cedric for team MVP. 

[Pickles]

Some people are going to be very disappointed in his bat.

I went with 720-759, but I expect him on the higher end of that. I'd put the over under at 750.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Some people are going to be very disappointed in his bat.

I went with 720-759, but I expect him on the higher end of that. I'd put the over under at 750.

In a way, I’m more interested in what he does behind the plate and how that impacts the team.  We pretty much know he’ll be at least decent and hopefully well above average for a catcher offensively.  But can he help our pitching staff, especially the guys he caught in the minors?   By all accounts he has the tools and leadership abilities to be very good there, but leading a major league staff as a rookie isn’t easy.   

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In a way, I’m more interested in what he does behind the plate and how that impacts the team.  We pretty much know he’ll be at least decent and hopefully well above average for a catcher offensively.  But can he help our pitching staff, especially the guys he caught in the minors?   By all accounts he has the tools and leadership abilities to be very good there, but leading a major league staff as a rookie isn’t easy.   

I think there will be an improvement that will be visually noticeable in catcher's defense.

I really don't expect him to be able to help the pitcher's all that much.  He can't throw for them.  And in today's game, he won't even call pitches.

I expect to see some growth out of the young pitchers- mostly because they were all terrible last year- but I'm not sure how much we'll be able to attribute that to Adley.

[maybenxtyr]

I took the .800-.839 mark. I expect he'll be closer to .800...which would be a massive upgrade when you factor in his defense.

 

I hope we get to see him for a full season this year.

[Just Regular]

Young Posey played more 1B than i would have guessed without looking it up:

Rookie of Year season: 75 catcher starts, 30 first base starts

41/2 in the sophomore year his knee got blown out.

The Age 25-29 years: 111/29, 119/16, 109/30, 103/37, 122/11

In his 30's: 96/30, 85/13, 96/3, 102/1.    In essence Old Posey had a mix more like I would have guessed a young catcher's knees to take, though the overall workload decreased.

Adley will have the DH of course if the bat is just that good.   2022 being what it is - the club can manage workload in a vacuum without competitive factors, so I don't believe until '23 will there be any chance to see how hard Elias/Sig will be willing to lean on the shiniest nuggets when maybe they have something to play for some of the summer.

Rounding off a bit on all three, but rookie Posey put 300/350/500 on the 2010 NL.   His 133 OPS+ would have been 25th MLB-wide, though looks like B-Ref doesn't count him as a qualifier seasonally with just 400-some plate appearances.

I voted .800-.839 for the poll, imagining something like 270/350/470.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

I think there will be an improvement that will be visually noticeable in catcher's defense.

I really don't expect him to be able to help the pitcher's all that much.  He can't throw for them.  And in today's game, he won't even call pitches.

I expect to see some growth out of the young pitchers- mostly because they were all terrible last year- but I'm not sure how much we'll be able to attribute that to Adley.

Mostly framing and he’s supposedly really good with knowing when to encourage them and when to kick them in the butt.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

I took the .800-.839 mark. I expect he'll be closer to .800...which would be a massive upgrade when you factor in his defense.

 

I hope we get to see him for a full season this year.

I expect Adley to hover around an .800 OPS as well. There’s a good chance Adley is the best position player on the Orioles in year one. No pressure. 

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

What’s your idea of “too much?”   I’m expecting him to catch 4-5 times a week.  

I think he can start about 120 games at catcher and maintain a 850 OPS. Any more than that and I think it affects his offense.

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Mostly framing and he’s supposedly really good with knowing when to encourage them and when to kick them in the butt.  

I've of course heard the same regarding his framing and leadership.

I too look forward specifically to the framing issue.  I've long held that the attempts to quantify it are profoundly flawed so I look forward to seeing with my own eyes how much that will help the pitchers.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Pickles said:

I think there will be an improvement that will be visually noticeable in catcher's defense.

I really don't expect him to be able to help the pitcher's all that much.  He can't throw for them.  And in today's game, he won't even call pitches.

I expect to see some growth out of the young pitchers- mostly because they were all terrible last year- but I'm not sure how much we'll be able to attribute that to Adley.

What I think helps the pitchers is that Means and Lyles can go deep in games.   Grayson should be limited to 5 innings per start just because of his innings limits for the season.   The rest of the pitchers that start should be limited to 4 innings per start especially against the AL East.    I am hoping the O's will use Openers and Bulk guys vs the AL East.

Adley  can be helpful to the pitchers but O's management has to be smart about the way pitchers are used.