What’s your 2022 OPS projection for Adley Rutschman?

[Sports Guy]

20 hours ago, Frobby said:

In a way, I’m more interested in what he does behind the plate and how that impacts the team.  We pretty much know he’ll be at least decent and hopefully well above average for a catcher offensively.  But can he help our pitching staff, especially the guys he caught in the minors?   By all accounts he has the tools and leadership abilities to be very good there, but leading a major league staff as a rookie isn’t easy.   

I think this is going to greatly disappoint people and perhaps people will start to realize catcher defense is overrated.  Not that I don’t expect him to have a positive influence because he will but if he doesn’t hit big time, he’s a Wieters like bust…which is to say, he’s not a bust by definition but he’s a bust by expectation.

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

What I think helps the pitchers is that Means and Lyles can go deep in games.   Grayson should be limited to 5 innings per start just because of his innings limits for the season.   The rest of the pitchers that start should be limited to 4 innings per start especially against the AL East.    I am hoping the O's will use Openers and Bulk guys vs the AL East.

Adley  can be helpful to the pitchers but O's management has to be smart about the way pitchers are used.

I expect them to pitch better this year, because honestly, with the exception of Means, none of them could be worse and maintain a roster spot.

I also expect them to experiment with usage a little more this year as well.

I do believe that Adley has great leadership qualities, and I don't want to dismiss what that can do.  But it's virtually impossible to quantify.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think he can start about 120 games at catcher and maintain a 850 OPS. Any more than that and I think it affects his offense.

He probably won’t catch 120 this year.  Next year, he probably will, if healthy.  

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Pickles said:

I've of course heard the same regarding his framing and leadership.

I too look forward specifically to the framing issue.  I've long held that the attempts to quantify it are profoundly flawed so I look forward to seeing with my own eyes how much that will help the pitchers.

That’s my point too.   I’m interested to see if it really makes any significant difference.   Of course, I think it’s pretty likely some of these pitchers will have more success just because they’ve learned from their experiences.   And some may not.  

[Moose Milligan]

1.250.

Anything less is unacceptable.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

He probably won’t catch 120 this year.  Next year, he probably will, if healthy.  

What makes you think that?

[Sports Guy]

9 hours ago, wildcard said:

What makes you think that?

Because that’s what the best catchers do..they catch…a lot.

Why would he be any different than the best catchers in the sport?

[Ruzious]

The old saying is Everyone has to go through their rookie year some time.  I don't expect his rookie OPS to be over .750.    

[wildcard]

58 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Because that’s what the best catchers do..they catch…a lot.

Why would he be any different than the best catchers in the sport?

So you are saying the best catchers don't catch 120 games?  

Frobby said he didn't think Adley would catch 120 games.

I asked why.

[Aristotelian]

I went with .880 and I know that is wildly optimistic for a rookie. That said he has produced at that level in the minors. I see him as having Mountcastle power with a higher OBP and Mountcastle has put up .812 so far. .280/.380/.505 would get it done. 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So you are saying the best catchers don't catch 120 games?  

Frobby said he didn't think Adley would catch 120 games.

I asked why.

No, he said he didn’t think he would catch 120 games this year but will going forward.

A lot of the rookie C didn’t catch that many games.

[btdart20]

.270/.360/.450ish...  Around .810ish...  I'm excited for the next chapter to start!

 

(**Is my O's fanhood in jeopardy if I'm more excited for the Grayson experience than the Adley rush?**)

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

So you are saying the best catchers don't catch 120 games?  

Frobby said he didn't think Adley would catch 120 games.

I asked why.

To begin with, I don’t know if the season will start on time or if Adley will be on the roster when the season starts.   

Beyond that, I just think they won’t go from having him catch 82 games last year to 120+ this year.   I think they’ll take a year to build him up to it.   Here’s a short list of how other recent good catchers were handled in their first year:

Posey: 70/114 starts after call-up

Realmuto: 116 starts in first full year

Mauer: 110 starts in first full year

Molina: 111 starts in first full year

Grandal: 100 starts his first year as starter

I think we’ll see Rutschman handled in a similar way in 2022.   

[Tony-OH]

i meant to hit .760 - .799 vs the lower one. 

I think there will be an adjustment time for Adley at the major league level, but he will figure it out and end up near .800 OPS as a rookie. It would not surprise me if he struggled through the first 4-6 weeks but he will still get on base thanks to his great eye and ability to foul pitches off.

 

[Pickles]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

That’s my point too.   I’m interested to see if it really makes any significant difference.   Of course, I think it’s pretty likely some of these pitchers will have more success just because they’ve learned from their experiences.   And some may not.  

I'm interested in seeing what he can do- in all aspects of the game.

We'll have to keep a close eye on the framing and compare our eyes with what the numbers say.